Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TCOM reported C3Q24 revenue 1.4%/1.6% higher than our est./cons., non-GAAP operating income is 12.5%/5.4% higher than our est./cons., mainly due to strong domestic sales and efficient cost control.</li>
<li>We expect revenue growth to accelerate in 4Q24 and 2025,backed by domestic travel recovery and steady overseas expansion.AI powered cost saving bringing extra leverage in margin is an additional positive.</li>
<li>We keep the stock as BUY rating and raise TP to US$74/ADS.</li>
</ul>


TCOM reported C3Q24 revenue 1.4%/1.6% higher than our est./cons., non-GAAP operating income is 12.5%/5.4% higher than our est./cons., mainly due to strong domestic sales and efficient cost control.
We expect revenue growth to accelerate in 4Q24 and 2025,backed by domestic travel recovery and steady overseas expansion.AI powered cost saving bringing extra leverage in margin is an additional positive.
We keep the stock as BUY rating and raise TP to US$74/ADS.


[Trip.com (TCOM US, BUY, TP US$74) Target Price Change]: C3Q24 Review: Domestic Story Back in Focus

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Trip.com Group (TCOM) released (19 Nov) 3Q24 results: total revenue was RMB15.9bn, up 16% YoY, 2% better than Bloomberg consensus estimates; non-GAAP operating income (OP) was RMB5.5bn, 6% better than consensus thanks to more optimized-than-expected sales and marketing spend.</li><li>Excluding equity in income of affiliates (RMB558mn), non-GAAP net income of RMB5.4bn was 13% ahead of consensus.</li><li>Domestic business volume growth was more resilient than we had previously expected, and outbound business recovery was well on track. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Trip.com Group (TCOM) released (19 Nov) 3Q24 results: total revenue was RMB15.9bn, up 16% YoY, 2% better than Bloomberg consensus estimates; non-GAAP operating income (OP) was RMB5.5bn, 6% better than consensus thanks to more optimized-than-expected sales and marketing spend.Excluding equity in income of affiliates (RMB558mn), non-GAAP net income of RMB5.4bn was 13% ahead of consensus.Domestic business volume growth was more resilient than we had previously expected, and outbound business recovery was well on track. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Trip.com (TCOM US) - Solid Business Growth Momentum Continues

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Airspace / China is making sure its low-altitude economy is ready for takeoff China is looking to the skies for future growth as it nurtures its nascent low-altitude economy with efforts to launch pilot programs for new aviation services.</li>
<li>The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the country’s top economic planner, is to create a Low-Altitude Economy Department to oversee the sector as it takes off, according to Chen Zhijie, director of the State Key Laboratory of Air Traffic Management System and Technology.</li>
<li>At the same time, the central government is drawing up detailed industry guidelines to establish a regulatory framework for the sector, Chen said at a Monday forum.</li>
</ul>


Airspace / China is making sure its low-altitude economy is ready for takeoff China is looking to the skies for future growth as it nurtures its nascent low-altitude economy with efforts to launch pilot programs for new aviation services.
The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the country’s top economic planner, is to create a Low-Altitude Economy Department to oversee the sector as it takes off, according to Chen Zhijie, director of the State Key Laboratory of Air Traffic Management System and Technology.
At the same time, the central government is drawing up detailed industry guidelines to establish a regulatory framework for the sector, Chen said at a Monday forum.


CX Daily: China Is Making Sure Its Low-Altitude Economy is Ready for Takeoff 

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>The stock has risen by 38% since our last buy rate.</li>
<li>The 3Q24 results are still healthy – both growth rate and operating margin.</li>
<li>We set a downside of 19% for the end of 2025.</li>
</ul>


The stock has risen by 38% since our last buy rate.
The 3Q24 results are still healthy – both growth rate and operating margin.
We set a downside of 19% for the end of 2025.


Trip.com (9961.HK, TCOM): 3Q24, Still Healthy, But Stock Price Exceeded Our Last Target

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>China, India, Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan remain key underweights.  Recovery in Malaysia, Thailand, Turkey, and South Africa, correction in Indonesia and Mexico. Developed Markets the largest overweight for EM investors.</li>
<li>Discretionary, Staples, and Industrials the key overweights, Materials and Energy the underweights. Rotation out of Tech moves positioning from overweight to underweight for the first time since 2019.</li>
<li>Ownership climbs for Meituan and SK Hynix, Baidu and Yum China see sharp declines. Downtrends persist in Vale, Telkom Indonesia.  Recovery in SK Telekom, Garanti Bank, highs in Emaar Properties. </li>
</ul>


China, India, Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan remain key underweights.  Recovery in Malaysia, Thailand, Turkey, and South Africa, correction in Indonesia and Mexico. Developed Markets the largest overweight for EM investors.
Discretionary, Staples, and Industrials the key overweights, Materials and Energy the underweights. Rotation out of Tech moves positioning from overweight to underweight for the first time since 2019.
Ownership climbs for Meituan and SK Hynix, Baidu and Yum China see sharp declines. Downtrends persist in Vale, Telkom Indonesia.  Recovery in SK Telekom, Garanti Bank, highs in Emaar Properties. 


China

Trip.com Group Ltd. provides online travel agency services. The Company offers mobile applications, hotel reservations, flight ticketing, package tours, corporate travel management, and train ticketing services.

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Trip.com (TCOM US)

[Trip.com (TCOM US, BUY, TP US$74) Target Price Change]: C3Q24 Review: Domestic Story Back in Focus

TCOM beats revenue and operating income estimates in Q3, expects growth to accelerate in Q4 and 2025 with domestic travel recovery and overseas...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Trip.com (TCOM US) - Solid Business Growth Momentum Continues

Trip.com Group (TCOM) released (19 Nov) 3Q24 results: total revenue was RMB15.9bn, up 16% YoY, 2% better than Bloomberg consensus estimates

CMB International

CX Daily: China Is Making Sure Its Low-Altitude Economy is Ready for Takeoff

Airspace / China is making sure its low-altitude economy is ready for takeoff China is looking to the skies for future growth as it nurtures its...

Caixin Global

Trip.com (9961.HK, TCOM): 3Q24, Still Healthy, But Stock Price Exceeded Our Last Target

The stock has risen by 38% since our last buy rate. The 3Q24 results are still healthy – both growth rate and operating margin. We set a down side...

Ming Lu

Active GEM Funds: Positioning Chart Pack

In this chart pack, we highlight the key country, sector and stock exposures among active Emerging Markets equity funds.

Steven Holden

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Trip.com (TCOM US, BUY, TP US$74) Target Price Change]: C3Q24 Review: Domestic Story Back in Focus

​TCOM beats revenue and operating income estimates in Q3, expects growth to accelerate in Q4 and 2025 with domestic travel recovery and overseas...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Trip.com (TCOM US) - Solid Business Growth Momentum Continues

Trip.com Group (TCOM) released (19 Nov) 3Q24 results: total revenue was RMB15.9bn, up 16% YoY, 2% better than Bloomberg consensus estimates

CMB International

CX Daily: China Is Making Sure Its Low-Altitude Economy is Ready for Takeoff

Airspace / China is making sure its low-altitude economy is ready for takeoff China is looking to the skies for future growth as it nurtures its...

Caixin Global

Trip.com (9961.HK, TCOM): 3Q24, Still Healthy, But Stock Price Exceeded Our Last Target

The stock has risen by 38% since our last buy rate. The 3Q24 results are still healthy – both growth rate and operating margin. We set a down side...

Ming Lu

Active GEM Funds: Positioning Chart Pack

In this chart pack, we highlight the key country, sector and stock exposures among active Emerging Markets equity funds.

Steven Holden

TCOM beats revenue and operating income estimates in Q3, expects growth to accelerate in Q4 and 2025 with domestic travel recovery and overseas...