Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>ATAT US/TCOM US:Travel Volume During Mid-Autumn Holiday Slightly Increased Compared to 2019(+/+)</li>
<li>1519 HK/ZTO US: Parcel volume collection +28% yoy in prior week (+/+)</li>
<li>XPEV US/LI US:Xpeng is rumored to launch an extended-range PHEV SUV next year.(///)</li>
</ul>


ATAT US/TCOM US:Travel Volume During Mid-Autumn Holiday Slightly Increased Compared to 2019(+/+)
1519 HK/ZTO US: Parcel volume collection +28% yoy in prior week (+/+)
XPEV US/LI US:Xpeng is rumored to launch an extended-range PHEV SUV next year.(///)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:ATAT US/TCOM US/1519 HK/ZTO US/XPEV US/LI US/LKNCY US

<ul>
<li>ATAT US/TCOM US: Hotel demand grow steadily in 1st week of September, with leisure travel being the main driver(+/+)</li>
<li>AAPL US/1810 HK/981 HK: Pre-registrations for iPhone 16 series in China well below prior models.(-/+/+)</li>
<li>AAPL US/1810 HK/981 HK: Huawei Mate XT receives positive commentary for design (-/-/+)</li>
</ul>


ATAT US/TCOM US: Hotel demand grow steadily in 1st week of September, with leisure travel being the main driver(+/+)
AAPL US/1810 HK/981 HK: Pre-registrations for iPhone 16 series in China well below prior models.(-/+/+)
AAPL US/1810 HK/981 HK: Huawei Mate XT receives positive commentary for design (-/-/+)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:ATAT US/TCOM US/AAPL US/1810 HK/981 HK/XPEV US/1211 HK/9863 HK/NIO US/ LI US

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Media rife with narrative of booming inbound foreign tourism to China</li>
<li>But the numbers are well below historical highs, and climbing up from low base</li>
<li>Chinese tourists, not foreign, determine strength of Chinese tourism recovery</li>
</ul>


Media rife with narrative of booming inbound foreign tourism to China
But the numbers are well below historical highs, and climbing up from low base
Chinese tourists, not foreign, determine strength of Chinese tourism recovery


Chinese Inbound Foreign Tourist Arrivals Up 153% Y/Y in H124?! Much Ado About (Almost) Nothing

Atour Lifestyle Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Atour (ATAT) reported C2Q24 revenue 2.2%/8.3% higher than our est./cons., and non-GAAP NI 6.8%/12.3% higher than our est./ cons, driven by stronger hotel supply chain sales and better retail efficiency.</li>
<li>We keep 2024 revenue growth estimate at 53% YoY vs. the uplift company guidance at 48%-52% YoY. Potential catalysts are stronger off-season travel,old hotel renovation scheme, and new brand launch.</li>
<li>We keep TP unchanged at US$36/ADS and maintain the BUY rating.</li>
</ul>


Atour (ATAT) reported C2Q24 revenue 2.2%/8.3% higher than our est./cons., and non-GAAP NI 6.8%/12.3% higher than our est./ cons, driven by stronger hotel supply chain sales and better retail efficiency.
We keep 2024 revenue growth estimate at 53% YoY vs. the uplift company guidance at 48%-52% YoY. Potential catalysts are stronger off-season travel,old hotel renovation scheme, and new brand launch.
We keep TP unchanged at US$36/ADS and maintain the BUY rating.


[Atour (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$36) Review]: Retail Business Bigger and Longer than Market Thinks

<ul>
<li>1519 HK/ZTO US: Weekly parcel volume grew ~28% y-o-y (+)</li>
<li>ATAT US/TCOM US: Hotel industry showcased strong performance in the last week of August due to eased base effect.(+/+)</li>
<li>Macro Update: The mortgage interest rate for existing loans may be further reduced, releasing at least RMB200 billion of residents' funds annually, bodes well for consumption in China(+)</li>
</ul>


1519 HK/ZTO US: Weekly parcel volume grew ~28% y-o-y (+)
ATAT US/TCOM US: Hotel industry showcased strong performance in the last week of August due to eased base effect.(+/+)
Macro Update: The mortgage interest rate for existing loans may be further reduced, releasing at least RMB200 billion of residents' funds annually, bodes well for consumption in China(+)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:1519 HK/ZTO US/ATAT US/TCOM US/9926 HK/Macro Update

China

Trip.com Group Ltd. provides online travel agency services. The Company offers mobile applications, hotel reservations, flight ticketing, package tours, corporate travel management, and train ticketing services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Trip.com (TCOM US)

[Blue Lotus Daily]:ATAT US/TCOM US/1519 HK/ZTO US/XPEV US/LI US/LKNCY US

Travel volume during Mid-Autumn holiday slightly increased compared to 2019, parcel volume collection up 28% year over year, Xpeng rumored to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:ATAT US/TCOM US/AAPL US/1810 HK/981 HK/XPEV US/1211 HK/9863 HK/NIO US/ LI US

Hotel demand in the US is increasing due to leisure travel, while pre-registrations for the iPhone 16 series in China are lower than previous...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Chinese Inbound Foreign Tourist Arrivals Up 153% Y/Y in H124?! Much Ado About (Almost) Nothing

Yes, foreign inbound travel to China has shown strong growth so far in 2024, but the numbers are rising from a very low base, and ultimately matter...

Tracking Traffic

[Atour (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$36) Review]: Retail Business Bigger and Longer than Market Thinks

Atour (ATAT) beats revenue and non-GAAP NI estimates, driven by hotel supply chain sales and retail efficiency. Potential growth catalysts include...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1519 HK/ZTO US/ATAT US/TCOM US/9926 HK/Macro Update

Weekly parcel volume in HK and the US grew by 28%, the hotel industry in the US showed strong performance, and China may see a boost in...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Blue Lotus Daily]:ATAT US/TCOM US/1519 HK/ZTO US/XPEV US/LI US/LKNCY US

​Travel volume during Mid-Autumn holiday slightly increased compared to 2019, parcel volume collection up 28% year over year, Xpeng rumored to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:ATAT US/TCOM US/AAPL US/1810 HK/981 HK/XPEV US/1211 HK/9863 HK/NIO US/ LI US

​Hotel demand in the US is increasing due to leisure travel, while pre-registrations for the iPhone 16 series in China are lower than previous...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Chinese Inbound Foreign Tourist Arrivals Up 153% Y/Y in H124?! Much Ado About (Almost) Nothing

Yes, foreign inbound travel to China has shown strong growth so far in 2024, but the numbers are rising from a very low base, and ultimately matter...

Tracking Traffic

[Atour (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$36) Review]: Retail Business Bigger and Longer than Market Thinks

​Atour (ATAT) beats revenue and non-GAAP NI estimates, driven by hotel supply chain sales and retail efficiency. Potential growth catalysts include...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1519 HK/ZTO US/ATAT US/TCOM US/9926 HK/Macro Update

​Weekly parcel volume in HK and the US grew by 28%, the hotel industry in the US showed strong performance, and China may see a boost in...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Travel volume during Mid-Autumn holiday slightly increased compared to 2019, parcel volume collection up 28% year over year, Xpeng rumored to...

Hotel demand in the US is increasing due to leisure travel, while pre-registrations for the iPhone 16 series in China are lower than previous...

Atour (ATAT) beats revenue and non-GAAP NI estimates, driven by hotel supply chain sales and retail efficiency. Potential growth catalysts include...

Weekly parcel volume in HK and the US grew by 28%, the hotel industry in the US showed strong performance, and China may see a boost in...