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Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

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<ul><li>Demand for hotel rooms and air tickets during this year’s Labor Day holiday is on track to exceed pre-pandemic levels of 2019, industry data showed</li><li>Many of the bookings were for destinations in the Yangtze River Delta region, Chongqing municipality, Chengdu and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei cluster</li><li>The rebound in travel comes amid a broader recovery in tourism, with Qunar saying that tickets tourist attractions in Beijing, Shanghai, Nanjing, Guangzhou and Xi’an have been selling fast.</li></ul>

Demand for hotel rooms and air tickets during this year’s Labor Day holiday is on track to exceed pre-pandemic levels of 2019, industry data showedMany of the bookings were for destinations in the Yangtze River Delta region, Chongqing municipality, Chengdu and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei clusterThe rebound in travel comes amid a broader recovery in tourism, with Qunar saying that tickets tourist attractions in Beijing, Shanghai, Nanjing, Guangzhou and Xi’an have been selling fast.

Labor Day Holiday Travel Demand Tops Pre-Pandemic Levels

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

<ul>
<li>Chinese outbound air travel in the region surged in March, up 50%+ versus February</li>
<li>Domestic improvement more muted, but still up about 75% Y/Y in Q123</li>
<li>Is the expected recovery on track? Sure, but so far no upside surprises for investors</li>
</ul>


Chinese outbound air travel in the region surged in March, up 50%+ versus February
Domestic improvement more muted, but still up about 75% Y/Y in Q123
Is the expected recovery on track? Sure, but so far no upside surprises for investors


Chinese Outbound Tourism Recovery Accelerates, But Still a Fraction of Pre-Covid Level

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Recent pullback of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (9961 HK)</a> has made this China's tourism recovery play even more attractive.  Since end-Feb, consensus earnings forecasts have been upgraded by 19-20%.</li>
<li>It is best positioned to capture the revival in China's domestic and outbound travels. Forward booking data has pointed to very solid momentum over the next few months.</li>
<li>We anticipate good margin expansion going forward, and its resilient financial position provides opportunities for value-enhancing M&amp;As. These all justify a premium valuation over peers. </li>
</ul>


Recent pullback of Trip.com (9961 HK) has made this China's tourism recovery play even more attractive.  Since end-Feb, consensus earnings forecasts have been upgraded by 19-20%.
It is best positioned to capture the revival in China's domestic and outbound travels. Forward booking data has pointed to very solid momentum over the next few months.
We anticipate good margin expansion going forward, and its resilient financial position provides opportunities for value-enhancing M&amp;As. These all justify a premium valuation over peers. 


Trip.com (9961 HK): The Best Is yet to Come

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Trip.com Group (TCOM) announced 4Q22 results on 7 Mar: net revenue was RMB5.0bn, up 7% YoY, 3/4% ahead of our/Bloomberg consensus estimates, and was 60% of the 4Q19 level.</li><li>Non-GAAP net income was RMB498mn, better than our forecast/consensus estimate of loss at RMB140/152mn, thanks to betterthan-expected cost saving.</li><li>Recovery in both domestic and outbound travel in 1Q23 was better than our expectation, aided by the release of pent-up demand, especially for business travel. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Trip.com Group (TCOM) announced 4Q22 results on 7 Mar: net revenue was RMB5.0bn, up 7% YoY, 3/4% ahead of our/Bloomberg consensus estimates, and was 60% of the 4Q19 level.Non-GAAP net income was RMB498mn, better than our forecast/consensus estimate of loss at RMB140/152mn, thanks to betterthan-expected cost saving.Recovery in both domestic and outbound travel in 1Q23 was better than our expectation, aided by the release of pent-up demand, especially for business travel. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Trip.com (TCOM US) – Pent-up demand boosts revenue recovery

<ul>
<li>With re-opening of borders, China's tourism and hospitality industry should see encouraging earnings outlook over the next two years; and we are now only in the early stage of recovery.  </li>
<li>Online travel agencies and hotel and resorts operators including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-elong-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huazhu-group-ltd-79e0c5b5-ad55-42ed-b8d2-a2173defd0ea" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33487:1" rel="noopener">H World Group (1179 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (9961 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-tourism-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27439:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)</a> are well positioned.</li>
<li>These companies all have sound business model, industry leadership position, solid competitive strengths, comprehensive customer coverage and, for some, meaningful global presence in their respective sub-sectors. </li>
</ul>


With re-opening of borders, China's tourism and hospitality industry should see encouraging earnings outlook over the next two years; and we are now only in the early stage of recovery.  
Online travel agencies and hotel and resorts operators including Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK), H World Group (1179 HK), Trip.com (9961 HK) and Fosun Tourism (1992 HK) are well positioned.
These companies all have sound business model, industry leadership position, solid competitive strengths, comprehensive customer coverage and, for some, meaningful global presence in their respective sub-sectors. 


China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: A Year of Revenge

China

Trip.com Group Ltd. provides online travel agency services. The Company offers mobile applications, hotel reservations, flight ticketing, package tours, corporate travel management, and train ticketing services.

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Trip.com (TCOM US)

Labor Day Holiday Travel Demand Tops Pre-Pandemic Levels

Demand for hotel rooms and air tickets during this year’s Labor Day holiday is on track to exceed pre-pandemic levels of 2019, industry data showed

Caixin Global

Chinese Outbound Tourism Recovery Accelerates, But Still a Fraction of Pre-Covid Level

Chinese tourism activity accelerated last month (particularly outbound travel), but it remains at a fraction of pre-Covid levels -- we see no...

Tracking Traffic

Trip.com (9961 HK): The Best Is yet to Come

Trip.com is best positioned to capture revival in China's domestic and outbound travels. Booking data pointed to good forward momentum, and recent...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Trip.com (TCOM US) – Pent-up demand boosts revenue recovery

Trip.com Group (TCOM) announced 4Q22 results on 7 Mar: net revenue was RMB5.0bn, up 7% YoY, 3/4% ahead of our/Bloomberg consensus estimates, and...

CMB International

China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: A Year of Revenge

We are only in early stage of China's tourism and hospitality recovery, after its re-opening of borders in Jan. We identify Tongcheng, H World,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

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