Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Roundhill Memory ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass). We also remain near-term bullish on MSCI ACWI since our 4/23/26 Int’l Compass.</li>
<li>2-Month base breakout on ACWI-US, MSCI EM(EEM-US) reversing its 1+month downtrend, and MSCI EAFE's(EFA-US) 5.5+ month base breakout reinforces our bullish outlook; these display bull flag patterns and remain healthy.</li>
<li>All signs are pointing to a resumption of prior uptrends, and we continue to recommend adding exposure to global Technology stocks (today buy list includes Samsung and SK Hynix).</li>
</ul>


Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass). We also remain near-term bullish on MSCI ACWI since our 4/23/26 Int’l Compass.
2-Month base breakout on ACWI-US, MSCI EM(EEM-US) reversing its 1+month downtrend, and MSCI EAFE's(EFA-US) 5.5+ month base breakout reinforces our bullish outlook; these display bull flag patterns and remain healthy.
All signs are pointing to a resumption of prior uptrends, and we continue to recommend adding exposure to global Technology stocks (today buy list includes Samsung and SK Hynix).


Buying Samsung and SK Hynix; MSCI EM (EEM-US) And Korea (EWY-US) Remain Buys

Smartkarma AI Primers, Smartkarma

αSK Primers

Smartkarma AI Primers

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
 <li>TSMC is the world's undisputed leader in semiconductor manufacturing, possessing a dominant market share and a significant technological lead in advanced process nodes, which forms a wide economic moat.</li>
 <li>The company is strategically positioned to be a primary beneficiary of long-term structural growth trends, particularly the explosive demand for high-performance computing (HPC) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) chips, which require leading-edge manufacturing capabilities.</li>
 <li>While facing significant capital expenditures for technology development and geographic expansion, and navigating a complex geopolitical landscape, TSMC has demonstrated a strong track record of execution, robust financial performance, and a clear growth trajectory.</li>
</ul>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


  TSMC is the world's undisputed leader in semiconductor manufacturing, possessing a dominant market share and a significant technological lead in advanced process nodes, which forms a wide economic moat.
  The company is strategically positioned to be a primary beneficiary of long-term structural growth trends, particularly the explosive demand for high-performance computing (HPC) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) chips, which require leading-edge manufacturing capabilities.
  While facing significant capital expenditures for technology development and geographic expansion, and navigating a complex geopolitical landscape, TSMC has demonstrated a strong track record of execution, robust financial performance, and a clear growth trajectory.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Primer: TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT) - Jul 2026

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>India's recent outperformance coincided with AI capex anxiety. Simultaneously, macro-economic data points like bank loan growth and GFCF growth are improving. Valuations are higher than averages but not egregiously so.</li>
<li>On growth-adjusted PE, basic materials, financials, consumer durables, transportation, industrial services, telecommunication stand out as cheaper than the market. Consensus EPS estimates of several sectors are beginning to get upgraded.</li>
<li>On strong growth forecasts, reasonable valuations, healthy balance sheets and EPS upgrades over last 6 months, we screen 20 stocks - from financials, industrials, basic materials, utilities, healthcare and hardware.</li>
</ul>


India's recent outperformance coincided with AI capex anxiety. Simultaneously, macro-economic data points like bank loan growth and GFCF growth are improving. Valuations are higher than averages but not egregiously so.
On growth-adjusted PE, basic materials, financials, consumer durables, transportation, industrial services, telecommunication stand out as cheaper than the market. Consensus EPS estimates of several sectors are beginning to get upgraded.
On strong growth forecasts, reasonable valuations, healthy balance sheets and EPS upgrades over last 6 months, we screen 20 stocks - from financials, industrials, basic materials, utilities, healthcare and hardware.


Asian Equities: A Close Look at India - Identifying Opportunities in a Well-Diversified Market

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

<ul>
<li>AMD committed up to US$5bn to Anthropic against an order for up to 2 gigawatts of MI450 accelerators, the first training-scale commitment to a rack that is not NVIDIA's.</li>
<li>NVIDIA prepaid Amkor US$1.5bn to expand Arizona packaging and planned US$5bn to US$10bn of dark fiber, paying cash upfront for what it does not manufacture.</li>
<li>Korea's supply answer to a 2027 shortage is dated 2030: Samsung plans four new fabs, and SK Hynix reapproved a 7.1 trillion won expansion.</li>
</ul>


AMD committed up to US$5bn to Anthropic against an order for up to 2 gigawatts of MI450 accelerators, the first training-scale commitment to a rack that is not NVIDIA's.
NVIDIA prepaid Amkor US$1.5bn to expand Arizona packaging and planned US$5bn to US$10bn of dark fiber, paying cash upfront for what it does not manufacture.
Korea's supply answer to a 2027 shortage is dated 2030: Samsung plans four new fabs, and SK Hynix reapproved a 7.1 trillion won expansion.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: AMD Wins First Training Chip Order Outside NVIDIA; NVDA Prepays Amkor's Capex

<ul>
<li>
AI's compute build re-accelerated broadly in June: chain revenue growth stepped up to +61% YoY across server ODMs and infrastructure, with even ASUS's rebound crediting AI servers rather than PCs.</li>
<li>
Memory's price surge settled to an ordinary pace: sequential revenue growth cooled to +7% MoM from April's +32%, though company commentary says prices keep rising and cycle has not turned.</li>
<li>
AI demand is now tightening component supply at the consumer end: a casing maker blamed shortages for weak notebook shipments, and consumer PCs still lag the AI cohort.</li>
</ul>



AI's compute build re-accelerated broadly in June: chain revenue growth stepped up to +61% YoY across server ODMs and infrastructure, with even ASUS's rebound crediting AI servers rather than PCs.

Memory's price surge settled to an ordinary pace: sequential revenue growth cooled to +7% MoM from April's +32%, though company commentary says prices keep rising and cycle has not turned.

AI demand is now tightening component supply at the consumer end: a casing maker blamed shortages for weak notebook shipments, and consumer PCs still lag the AI cohort.


AI Supply Chain Revenue Signals: The Memory Surge Settles While AI Server Demand Broadens

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

Buying Samsung and SK Hynix; MSCI EM (EEM-US) And Korea (EWY-US) Remain Buys

Thursday pre-market report: Buying Samsung and SK Hynix $SKHY; MSCI EM $EEM and Korea $EWY $DRAM Remain Buys. Actionable Themes: Technology,...

Vermilion Research

Primer: TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT) - Jul 2026

TSMC is the world's undisputed leader in semiconductor manufacturing, possessing a dominant market share and a significant technological lead in...

αSK Primers

Asian Equities: A Close Look at India - Identifying Opportunities in a Well-Diversified Market

India is outperforming due to AI capex anxiety &, improving macro data. Some sectors cheaper than market on growth-adjusted PE. 20 stocks screened...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Taiwan Tech Weekly: AMD Wins First Training Chip Order Outside NVIDIA; NVDA Prepays Amkor's Capex

AMD commits $5bn to Anthropic for it to buy AI training accelerators, NVIDIA prepaying for Arizona packaging, Samsung and SK Hynix plan expansions...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

AI Supply Chain Revenue Signals: The Memory Surge Settles While AI Server Demand Broadens

AI server demand surged in June, driving revenue growth, while memory prices stabilized and AI demand tightened consumer component supply.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Buying Samsung and SK Hynix; MSCI EM (EEM-US) And Korea (EWY-US) Remain Buys

Thursday pre-market report: Buying Samsung and SK Hynix $SKHY; MSCI EM $EEM and Korea $EWY $DRAM Remain Buys. Actionable Themes: Technology,...

Vermilion Research

Primer: TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT) - Jul 2026

TSMC is the world's undisputed leader in semiconductor manufacturing, possessing a dominant market share and a significant technological lead in...

αSK Primers

Asian Equities: A Close Look at India - Identifying Opportunities in a Well-Diversified Market

​India is outperforming due to AI capex anxiety &, improving macro data. Some sectors cheaper than market on growth-adjusted PE. 20 stocks screened...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Taiwan Tech Weekly: AMD Wins First Training Chip Order Outside NVIDIA; NVDA Prepays Amkor's Capex

​AMD commits $5bn to Anthropic for it to buy AI training accelerators, NVIDIA prepaying for Arizona packaging, Samsung and SK Hynix plan expansions...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

AI Supply Chain Revenue Signals: The Memory Surge Settles While AI Server Demand Broadens

​AI server demand surged in June, driving revenue growth, while memory prices stabilized and AI demand tightened consumer component supply.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

India is outperforming due to AI capex anxiety &, improving macro data. Some sectors cheaper than market on growth-adjusted PE. 20 stocks screened...

AMD commits $5bn to Anthropic for it to buy AI training accelerators, NVIDIA prepaying for Arizona packaging, Samsung and SK Hynix plan expansions...

AI server demand surged in June, driving revenue growth, while memory prices stabilized and AI demand tightened consumer component supply.