Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Before the Peak, Few People Realized They Were at the Top of a Bubble.</li>
<li>The recent sharp decline can be summarized by the following observations:  AI is real, but the next challenge may be valuation compression.   </li>
<li>When evaluating the current market correction, the first step is to acknowledge a simple fact. Investors may consider waiting until pessimism has become widespread.  </li>
</ul>


Before the Peak, Few People Realized They Were at the Top of a Bubble.
The recent sharp decline can be summarized by the following observations:  AI is real, but the next challenge may be valuation compression.   
When evaluating the current market correction, the first step is to acknowledge a simple fact. Investors may consider waiting until pessimism has become widespread.  


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Stock Prices Had Already Priced in Excessively Optimistic Expectations.

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

<ul><li>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited reported second quarter 2026 results highlighted by revenue growth driven primarily by strong demand for advanced process technologies, notably the 2-nanometer ramp, with these technologies (7-nanometer and below) accounting for 77% of wafer revenue.</li><li>High-performance computing (HPC) contributed 66% of revenue, showing a 20% sequential increase, while smartphone revenue declined 4%.</li><li>Other platforms, including Internet of Things (IoT) and automotive, increased modestly.</li></ul>

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited reported second quarter 2026 results highlighted by revenue growth driven primarily by strong demand for advanced process technologies, notably the 2-nanometer ramp, with these technologies (7-nanometer and below) accounting for 77% of wafer revenue.High-performance computing (HPC) contributed 66% of revenue, showing a 20% sequential increase, while smartphone revenue declined 4%.Other platforms, including Internet of Things (IoT) and automotive, increased modestly.

TSMC At 40% Growth: Can Its 2-Nanometer Ramp Protect Margins?

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Asian headline indices are almost at pre-war levels. However, Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand and Korea are significantly below and Taiwan significantly above the pre-war peaks. Hong Kong, Singapore are at parity.</li>
<li>Utilities, consumer services, consumer durables are prominent decliners. Industrials, health tech (pharmaceuticals), process industries and technology are above pre-war levels. The market seems concerned about fuel and industrial input shortage.</li>
<li>After this relative valuation churn, Korea, Indonesia and Philippines appear the cheapest on PE vs EPS growth and P/BV vs ROE. We remain overweight Korea, HK/China and Singapore.</li>
</ul>


Asian headline indices are almost at pre-war levels. However, Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand and Korea are significantly below and Taiwan significantly above the pre-war peaks. Hong Kong, Singapore are at parity.
Utilities, consumer services, consumer durables are prominent decliners. Industrials, health tech (pharmaceuticals), process industries and technology are above pre-war levels. The market seems concerned about fuel and industrial input shortage.
After this relative valuation churn, Korea, Indonesia and Philippines appear the cheapest on PE vs EPS growth and P/BV vs ROE. We remain overweight Korea, HK/China and Singapore.


Asian Equities: Headline Indices Back to Pre-War, but Not All Markets or Sectors Are

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>2026 revenue growth now expected above 40% in US$ (from above 30% previously). 1-3Q26 revenue growth YoY is 40% in NT$, 38% in US$ (guidance included).</li>
<li>2026 Capex raised to US$62bn, from US$54bn in January. Additional US$100bn in Arizona. The rumor mill was talking about $70bn capex in 2027 – that now looks low.</li>
<li>Margins are moving up: increasing utilization, increasing EUV and HPC in the mix, price hikes. YTD, NT$ net income up 63% YoY. Stock trading at 23.3x ‘26EPS and 17.2x ’27.</li>
</ul>


2026 revenue growth now expected above 40% in US$ (from above 30% previously). 1-3Q26 revenue growth YoY is 40% in NT$, 38% in US$ (guidance included).
2026 Capex raised to US$62bn, from US$54bn in January. Additional US$100bn in Arizona. The rumor mill was talking about $70bn capex in 2027 – that now looks low.
Margins are moving up: increasing utilization, increasing EUV and HPC in the mix, price hikes. YTD, NT$ net income up 63% YoY. Stock trading at 23.3x ‘26EPS and 17.2x ’27.


TSMC: Raising 2026 Guidance, Raising Capex, “all the Way to Probably 2029-30, Demand Is Very Strong”

Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

<ul>
<li>Q2 revenue US$40.20bn (+36% YoY, +12% QoQ), GM 67.7%, EPS US$4.31 — all above the top end of guidance. FY26 growth guidance raised to above 40% USD, from above 30%.</li>
<li>Capex raised 15% to US$60–64bn; overseas-fab margin dilution guided wider, to 3–4%. No new buyback — capital return still runs through the dividend, up to NT$7.00/share.</li>
<li>Fair Value raised to NT$3,450/US$545 (from NT$3,230/US$510), on updated FY26E EBITDA of about US$125bn at an unchanged 22x multiple. Stance stays Bullish.</li>
</ul>


Q2 revenue US$40.20bn (+36% YoY, +12% QoQ), GM 67.7%, EPS US$4.31 — all above the top end of guidance. FY26 growth guidance raised to above 40% USD, from above 30%.
Capex raised 15% to US$60–64bn; overseas-fab margin dilution guided wider, to 3–4%. No new buyback — capital return still runs through the dividend, up to NT$7.00/share.
Fair Value raised to NT$3,450/US$545 (from NT$3,230/US$510), on updated FY26E EBITDA of about US$125bn at an unchanged 22x multiple. Stance stays Bullish.


TSMC (2330 TW, TSM US) — Q2 2026 Results: Beat & Raise Guidance = Raise Fair Value to NT$3,450

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Stock Prices Had Already Priced in Excessively Optimistic Expectations.

Investors may not have realized they were in a bubble before the recent sharp decline, now facing the challenge of valuation compression and...

Patrick Liao

TSMC At 40% Growth: Can Its 2-Nanometer Ramp Protect Margins?

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited reported second quarter 2026 results highlighted by revenue growth driven primarily by strong...

Baptista Research

Asian Equities: Headline Indices Back to Pre-War, but Not All Markets or Sectors Are

In Asia post-war, some markets are below pre-war levels & others above. Market concerns include fuel and industrial input shortage. KR, INDO,...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

TSMC: Raising 2026 Guidance, Raising Capex, “all the Way to Probably 2029-30, Demand Is Very Strong”

TSMC's 2026 revenue growth expected to exceed 40%, with increased Capex and improving margins driving stock performance.

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (2330 TW, TSM US) — Q2 2026 Results: Beat & Raise Guidance = Raise Fair Value to NT$3,450

Q2 revenue exceeds expectations, FY26 growth guidance raised, capex increased, no new buyback, fair value raised to NT$3,450/US$545. Bullish...

Mo Aziz

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Stock Prices Had Already Priced in Excessively Optimistic Expectations.

​Investors may not have realized they were in a bubble before the recent sharp decline, now facing the challenge of valuation compression and...

Patrick Liao

TSMC At 40% Growth: Can Its 2-Nanometer Ramp Protect Margins?

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited reported second quarter 2026 results highlighted by revenue growth driven primarily by strong...

Baptista Research

Asian Equities: Headline Indices Back to Pre-War, but Not All Markets or Sectors Are

​In Asia post-war, some markets are below pre-war levels & others above. Market concerns include fuel and industrial input shortage. KR, INDO,...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

TSMC: Raising 2026 Guidance, Raising Capex, “all the Way to Probably 2029-30, Demand Is Very Strong”

​TSMC's 2026 revenue growth expected to exceed 40%, with increased Capex and improving margins driving stock performance.

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (2330 TW, TSM US) — Q2 2026 Results: Beat & Raise Guidance = Raise Fair Value to NT$3,450

​Q2 revenue exceeds expectations, FY26 growth guidance raised, capex increased, no new buyback, fair value raised to NT$3,450/US$545. Bullish...

Mo Aziz

Investors may not have realized they were in a bubble before the recent sharp decline, now facing the challenge of valuation compression and...

In Asia post-war, some markets are below pre-war levels & others above. Market concerns include fuel and industrial input shortage. KR, INDO,...

TSMC's 2026 revenue growth expected to exceed 40%, with increased Capex and improving margins driving stock performance.

Q2 revenue exceeds expectations, FY26 growth guidance raised, capex increased, no new buyback, fair value raised to NT$3,450/US$545. Bullish...