Independent Fund Manager, Swaen Capital

Swaen Capital

Independent Fund Manager

Swaen Capital is a Singapore based licensed independent fund manager with an open architecture, a non bias financial platform creating access to the best custodians and investment managers. Our focus lies within the wealth management business, covering client relationships, financial planning, advisory, as well as discretionary portfolio management. We have developed strategic alliances with other leading independent firms to complement and extend our offerings to clients (global hedge fund research capability, alternative investment offerings, corporate finance, fund structuring & administration, etc). Our know-how, extensive global network and long standing presence in Asia allows us to provide a global footprint and at the same time enables us to capitalize on regional opportunities.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The copper wall is here. Above ~200Gbps per lane, copper can no longer carry signals more than a few metres without prohibitive power and signal-integrity penalties. The industry's answer is to move the optics off the faceplate and onto the chip package itself — Co Packaged Optics (CPO).</li>
<li>Adoption is switch-first. NVIDIA and Broadcom are shipping CPO switches in 2026 on external-laser designs; the XPU side and an in-package laser are deferred by packaging and reliability limits, not yet solved.</li>
<li>Money moves with the architecture. As the optical engine moves into the package, value migrates away from module assemblers toward the layers that fabricate the optical engine itself.</li>
</ul>


The copper wall is here. Above ~200Gbps per lane, copper can no longer carry signals more than a few metres without prohibitive power and signal-integrity penalties. The industry's answer is to move the optics off the faceplate and onto the chip package itself — Co Packaged Optics (CPO).
Adoption is switch-first. NVIDIA and Broadcom are shipping CPO switches in 2026 on external-laser designs; the XPU side and an in-package laser are deferred by packaging and reliability limits, not yet solved.
Money moves with the architecture. As the optical engine moves into the package, value migrates away from module assemblers toward the layers that fabricate the optical engine itself.


Co-Packaged Optics 101: The Future of High-Density AI Interconnects

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Despite 33.7% revenue growth, TSMC faces a definitive margin squeeze in H2 2026 as the 2nm ramp and overseas fab expansions overwhelm recent aggressive price hikes.</li>
<li>CoWoS yield bottlenecks compound the existing capacity constraints, making the sudden embrace of Intel's EMIB-driven "flexibility" a convenient smokescreen for underlying performance issues.</li>
<li>Management continues to deflect long-term quantitative guidance, and the recently finalised price hikes taking effect in 2027 will arrive too late to rescue near-term profitability contraction.</li>
</ul>


Despite 33.7% revenue growth, TSMC faces a definitive margin squeeze in H2 2026 as the 2nm ramp and overseas fab expansions overwhelm recent aggressive price hikes.
CoWoS yield bottlenecks compound the existing capacity constraints, making the sudden embrace of Intel's EMIB-driven "flexibility" a convenient smokescreen for underlying performance issues.
Management continues to deflect long-term quantitative guidance, and the recently finalised price hikes taking effect in 2027 will arrive too late to rescue near-term profitability contraction.


Decoding TSMC's Transition from Offence to Defence

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>Intel last week moved most of its Nova Lake compute tiles back to its own 18A process from TSMC, and won packaging designs at Google and AWS.</li>
<li>TSMC last week raised its full-year revenue growth guide past 40% for the second time this year, while guiding near-term margin lower as its 2nm ramp scales.</li>
<li>In memory, HBM4 shipments, record wafer price hikes and multi-year contracts pointed to a still-tight supply side across the DRAM stack.</li>
</ul>


Intel last week moved most of its Nova Lake compute tiles back to its own 18A process from TSMC, and won packaging designs at Google and AWS.
TSMC last week raised its full-year revenue growth guide past 40% for the second time this year, while guiding near-term margin lower as its 2nm ramp scales.
In memory, HBM4 shipments, record wafer price hikes and multi-year contracts pointed to a still-tight supply side across the DRAM stack.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Intel Pulls Chip Orders Back From TSMC to Its Own Leading-Edge Fab

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +12.0% Premium; Below -1 SD Band; Long the ADR Spread</li>
<li>ASE: +0.0% Premium (ADR at Parity); Long the ADR Spread</li>
<li>CHT: -1.3% Discount; Below -1 SD Band; Long the ADR Spread</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +12.0% Premium; Below -1 SD Band; Long the ADR Spread
ASE: +0.0% Premium (ADR at Parity); Long the ADR Spread
CHT: -1.3% Discount; Below -1 SD Band; Long the ADR Spread


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Multiple ADR Spreads Due for a Bounce

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

<ul>
<li>In US dollar terms, TSMC's second quarter revenue was $40.20 billion, which increased 33.7% year-over-year and increased 12.0% from the previous quarter.</li>
<li>Current quarter guidance for revenues between US$44.6 billion and US$45.8 billion. At 1 US$ to 32 NT$, gross profit margin is expected to be between 65% and 67%</li>
<li>Supported by their robust technology differentiation and the broad customer base, TSMC now expects full-year 2026 revenue growth of slightly above 40% YoY in US dollar terms. Yikes!</li>
</ul>


In US dollar terms, TSMC's second quarter revenue was $40.20 billion, which increased 33.7% year-over-year and increased 12.0% from the previous quarter.
Current quarter guidance for revenues between US$44.6 billion and US$45.8 billion. At 1 US$ to 32 NT$, gross profit margin is expected to be between 65% and 67%
Supported by their robust technology differentiation and the broad customer base, TSMC now expects full-year 2026 revenue growth of slightly above 40% YoY in US dollar terms. Yikes!


TSMC Q226. You Put All The Truth Together, It's Not The Truth

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

Co-Packaged Optics 101: The Future of High-Density AI Interconnects

The copper wall is here. Above ~200Gbps per lane, copper can no longer carry signals more than a few metres without prohibitive power and...

Swaen Capital

Decoding TSMC's Transition from Offence to Defence

TSMC's revenue growth is overshadowed by margin squeeze due to capacity constraints and delayed price hikes, with Intel's EMIB technology serving...

Mint Finance

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Intel Pulls Chip Orders Back From TSMC to Its Own Leading-Edge Fab

TSMC raises revenue growth guide, Intel shifts back to own process, tight supply in memory market and server components.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Multiple ADR Spreads Due for a Bounce

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC Q226. You Put All The Truth Together, It's Not The Truth

Supported by their robust technology differentiation and the broad customer base, TSMC now expects full-year 2026 revenue growth of slightly above...

William Keating

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Co-Packaged Optics 101: The Future of High-Density AI Interconnects

The copper wall is here. Above ~200Gbps per lane, copper can no longer carry signals more than a few metres without prohibitive power and...

Swaen Capital

Decoding TSMC's Transition from Offence to Defence

​TSMC's revenue growth is overshadowed by margin squeeze due to capacity constraints and delayed price hikes, with Intel's EMIB technology serving...

Mint Finance

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Intel Pulls Chip Orders Back From TSMC to Its Own Leading-Edge Fab

​TSMC raises revenue growth guide, Intel shifts back to own process, tight supply in memory market and server components.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Multiple ADR Spreads Due for a Bounce

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC Q226. You Put All The Truth Together, It's Not The Truth

Supported by their robust technology differentiation and the broad customer base, TSMC now expects full-year 2026 revenue growth of slightly above...

William Keating

TSMC's revenue growth is overshadowed by margin squeeze due to capacity constraints and delayed price hikes, with Intel's EMIB technology serving...

TSMC raises revenue growth guide, Intel shifts back to own process, tight supply in memory market and server components.