Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul><li>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company is about to give investors one of the clearest tests yet of the AI spending cycle.</li><li>The first signal arrives with its postponed June sales release on Monday, July 13.</li><li>The company will then report second-quarter results on Thursday, July 16, at 2:00 a.m. ET.</li></ul>

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company is about to give investors one of the clearest tests yet of the AI spending cycle.The first signal arrives with its postponed June sales release on Monday, July 13.The company will then report second-quarter results on Thursday, July 16, at 2:00 a.m. ET.

TSMC’s Two Numbers Could Decide Whether The AI Rally Has Gone Too Far!

Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

<ul>
<li>June revenue NT$442.68bn (+67.9% YoY, +6.2% MoM). Implied Q2 2026 revenue ~US$39.63bn (+36% YoY), landing at the midpoint of TSMC's own guidance, ahead of 16 July earnings.</li>
<li>This matches our Q2-26E model (~US$39.6bn) and confirms Pillar III demand compounding. A sector-wide chip selloff on the same day is unrelated — a rotation dip, not a TSMC-specific signal.</li>
<li>We remain Bullish with FV of NT$3,230 / US$510 (+18%) reiterated, anchored on 22x FY26E EV/EBITDA and structural AI-monopoly economics; gross margin confirmation on 16 July is the re-rating trigger.</li>
</ul>


June revenue NT$442.68bn (+67.9% YoY, +6.2% MoM). Implied Q2 2026 revenue ~US$39.63bn (+36% YoY), landing at the midpoint of TSMC's own guidance, ahead of 16 July earnings.
This matches our Q2-26E model (~US$39.6bn) and confirms Pillar III demand compounding. A sector-wide chip selloff on the same day is unrelated — a rotation dip, not a TSMC-specific signal.
We remain Bullish with FV of NT$3,230 / US$510 (+18%) reiterated, anchored on 22x FY26E EV/EBITDA and structural AI-monopoly economics; gross margin confirmation on 16 July is the re-rating trigger.


TSMC (2330 TW, TSM US) — June Revenue Update: Base Case Confirmed, Margin Reality Check on 16 Jul

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Anecdotally, fund flows from foreign institutions are important drivers for Asian equity markets. But considering annual FII flows into Asian markets, and their performance tells a different story.</li>
<li>Taiwan and Korea's performances are the most uncorrelated with foreign flows. India's is the most correlated, despite the sharp spike in India's domestic flows. Thailand and Philippines are reasonably correlated.</li>
<li>Considering fundamentals (earnings growth forecasts and direction of estimates) and the extent of overbuying/overselling in a market, we think Korea, Taiwan should see buying. India, Indonesia, Philippines could be sold.</li>
</ul>


Anecdotally, fund flows from foreign institutions are important drivers for Asian equity markets. But considering annual FII flows into Asian markets, and their performance tells a different story.
Taiwan and Korea's performances are the most uncorrelated with foreign flows. India's is the most correlated, despite the sharp spike in India's domestic flows. Thailand and Philippines are reasonably correlated.
Considering fundamentals (earnings growth forecasts and direction of estimates) and the extent of overbuying/overselling in a market, we think Korea, Taiwan should see buying. India, Indonesia, Philippines could be sold.


Asian Equities: How Critical Are FII Flows for Asia, and in Which Markets Are They Likely to Revive?

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

<ul>
<li>Micron, Apple and AMD committed a combined US$43bn-plus to the suppliers they depend on, moving the industry from ordering capacity to financing it and shifting build risk onto the buyers.</li>
<li>Memory economics reached record levels: Samsung's operating profit rose 19x, and Nanya's gross margin hit 79.5% on flat shipments, with prices doing all the work.</li>
<li>SK Hynix raised US$26.5bn for ADRs in the largest US listing by a foreign company, and the week's selloff reversed in two sessions as money returned to memory and compute.</li>
</ul>


Micron, Apple and AMD committed a combined US$43bn-plus to the suppliers they depend on, moving the industry from ordering capacity to financing it and shifting build risk onto the buyers.
Memory economics reached record levels: Samsung's operating profit rose 19x, and Nanya's gross margin hit 79.5% on flat shipments, with prices doing all the work.
SK Hynix raised US$26.5bn for ADRs in the largest US listing by a foreign company, and the week's selloff reversed in two sessions as money returned to memory and compute.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Micron, Apple and AMD Start Funding Their Suppliers

<ul>
<li>Over 2024 and 2025, Asia-ex-Japan equities are up c30%. During this period, the 12-month forward EPS has expanded only 5.6%. Forward EPS recovery is essential to take the market higher.</li>
<li>Over the medium to long term, share prices track earnings, as we notice in our long-term analysis of forward EPS trajectory and market movement. Disjoint movements usually mean revert quickly.</li>
<li>Forward EPS could move up further in China, Korea, Taiwan and Thailand. Hong Kong has overshot its forward EPS trajectory. Philippines has massively undershot. Other markets appear broadly in line.</li>
</ul>


Over 2024 and 2025, Asia-ex-Japan equities are up c30%. During this period, the 12-month forward EPS has expanded only 5.6%. Forward EPS recovery is essential to take the market higher.
Over the medium to long term, share prices track earnings, as we notice in our long-term analysis of forward EPS trajectory and market movement. Disjoint movements usually mean revert quickly.
Forward EPS could move up further in China, Korea, Taiwan and Thailand. Hong Kong has overshot its forward EPS trajectory. Philippines has massively undershot. Other markets appear broadly in line.


Asian Equities: After Two Years of Rerating, Will Earnings Catch up in 2026?

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC’s Two Numbers Could Decide Whether The AI Rally Has Gone Too Far!

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company is about to give investors one of the clearest tests yet of the AI spending cycle. The first signal...

Baptista Research

TSMC (2330 TW, TSM US) — June Revenue Update: Base Case Confirmed, Margin Reality Check on 16 Jul

June revenue lands at guidance midpoint, confirming base case. Sector sells off regardless. Fair Value NT$3,230/US$510 (+18%) reiterated — Bullish...

Mo Aziz

Asian Equities: How Critical Are FII Flows for Asia, and in Which Markets Are They Likely to Revive?

Foreign fund flows are not the main drivers of several Asian markets. TW & KR show the least correlation & India the most. KR & TW could see near...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Micron, Apple and AMD Start Funding Their Suppliers

Tech giants like Micron, Apple, and AMD are investing billions in their suppliers, shifting industry dynamics and pushing memory economics to...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Asian Equities: After Two Years of Rerating, Will Earnings Catch up in 2026?

Asia-ex-Japan equities have surged, but forward EPS growth is lagging. Nascent signs of EPS recovery in CN, KR, TW & TH. HK market has overshot...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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TSMC’s Two Numbers Could Decide Whether The AI Rally Has Gone Too Far!

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company is about to give investors one of the clearest tests yet of the AI spending cycle. The first signal...

Baptista Research

TSMC (2330 TW, TSM US) — June Revenue Update: Base Case Confirmed, Margin Reality Check on 16 Jul

June revenue lands at guidance midpoint, confirming base case. Sector sells off regardless. Fair Value NT$3,230/US$510 (+18%) reiterated — Bullish...

Mo Aziz

Asian Equities: How Critical Are FII Flows for Asia, and in Which Markets Are They Likely to Revive?

​Foreign fund flows are not the main drivers of several Asian markets. TW & KR show the least correlation & India the most. KR & TW could see near...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Micron, Apple and AMD Start Funding Their Suppliers

​Tech giants like Micron, Apple, and AMD are investing billions in their suppliers, shifting industry dynamics and pushing memory economics to...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Asian Equities: After Two Years of Rerating, Will Earnings Catch up in 2026?

​Asia-ex-Japan equities have surged, but forward EPS growth is lagging. Nascent signs of EPS recovery in CN, KR, TW & TH. HK market has overshot...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Foreign fund flows are not the main drivers of several Asian markets. TW & KR show the least correlation & India the most. KR & TW could see near...

Tech giants like Micron, Apple, and AMD are investing billions in their suppliers, shifting industry dynamics and pushing memory economics to...

Asia-ex-Japan equities have surged, but forward EPS growth is lagging. Nascent signs of EPS recovery in CN, KR, TW & TH. HK market has overshot...