Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Advanced packaging scarcity hardened from lead times into contracts: TSMC signed its first publicly disclosed 10-year deal, while tool makers Grand Process and Scientech booked orders to 2030.</li>
<li>Intel responded late in the week, hiring SK Hynix's former chief executive to build its own packaging-focused foundry and reportedly teaming with UMC on advanced processes.</li>
<li>Memory and passives led Taiwan and Korea higher, with Winbond, Nanya, Murata and Yageo up 29% to 40% as memory and MLCC prices climbed.</li>
</ul>


Advanced packaging scarcity hardened from lead times into contracts: TSMC signed its first publicly disclosed 10-year deal, while tool makers Grand Process and Scientech booked orders to 2030.
Intel responded late in the week, hiring SK Hynix's former chief executive to build its own packaging-focused foundry and reportedly teaming with UMC on advanced processes.
Memory and passives led Taiwan and Korea higher, with Winbond, Nanya, Murata and Yageo up 29% to 40% as memory and MLCC prices climbed.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Packaging Scarcity Locks In to 2030, Intel Builds New Capacity to Compete

Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

<ul>
<li>TSMC's bull case is at 24x forward P/E. Four non-earnings tail risks — coercion, AI capex reversal, Samsung recovery, and concentration — could reprice 20–60% with zero fundamental change.</li>
<li>Hyperscaler AI capex tripled in two years to ~US$725bn. TSMC's fixed-cost base amplifies any deceleration non-linearly: a 20% capex slowdown translates to a ~17–25% EPS miss, not a 20% miss.</li>
<li>The FSC concentration rule change is a medium-term systemic risk, not a catalyst. Domestic funds now legally 25% in one name — amplifying every drawdown scenario rather than providing support.</li>
</ul>


TSMC's bull case is at 24x forward P/E. Four non-earnings tail risks — coercion, AI capex reversal, Samsung recovery, and concentration — could reprice 20–60% with zero fundamental change.
Hyperscaler AI capex tripled in two years to ~US$725bn. TSMC's fixed-cost base amplifies any deceleration non-linearly: a 20% capex slowdown translates to a ~17–25% EPS miss, not a 20% miss.
The FSC concentration rule change is a medium-term systemic risk, not a catalyst. Domestic funds now legally 25% in one name — amplifying every drawdown scenario rather than providing support.


TSMC (2330 TT) What Can Go Wrong: A Tail-Risk Framework for the World's Most Important Stock

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +16.1% Premium; Within Historical Range; Can Stay Long the Spread</li>
<li>UMC: +2.5% Premium; Within Historical Range; Short Spread if Increases Further</li>
<li>ASE: +2.2% Premium; Within Historical Range; No Active Trade Signal</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +16.1% Premium; Within Historical Range; Can Stay Long the Spread
UMC: +2.5% Premium; Within Historical Range; Short Spread if Increases Further
ASE: +2.2% Premium; Within Historical Range; No Active Trade Signal


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: ADR Spreads Staged Major Reversion

<ul>
<li>Taiwan and US chips rebounded from the prior week's record selloff, but unevenly: semiconductor-equipment makers led while the server assemblers that led the prior leg fell.</li>
<li>With <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)</a>'s 3nm and packaging lines full, Google moved to split its next AI chips across Intel, Samsung<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener"></a>, Marvell, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:998:1" rel="noopener"></a>Broadcom, and Mediatek.</li>
<li>Memory stayed tight: SK Hynix will triple capacity by 2034, NVIDIA trimmed its Vera Rubin specs to fit supply, and Taiwan's listed firms posted a record revenure growth in May.</li>
</ul>


Taiwan and US chips rebounded from the prior week's record selloff, but unevenly: semiconductor-equipment makers led while the server assemblers that led the prior leg fell.
With TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)'s 3nm and packaging lines full, Google moved to split its next AI chips across Intel, Samsung, Marvell, Broadcom, and Mediatek.
Memory stayed tight: SK Hynix will triple capacity by 2034, NVIDIA trimmed its Vera Rubin specs to fit supply, and Taiwan's listed firms posted a record revenure growth in May.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Chips Rebound After Record Selloff; Rotation Out of Servers Into Semi Equipment

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Korea semi export up 173% YoY, that’s Memory of course. As the mix moves towards more HBM and LPDDR, prices should keep going up.</li>
<li>TSMC steady 30% revenue growth YoY. Growth could accelerate in 2H26 on rapidly growing 2nm revenues (it’s gonna be a fast ramp to 100k wpm in 2H26).</li>
<li>Mediatek revenues decline year-to-date, that’s smartphone and consumer elec markets shrinking. The stock is up 200% YTD, TPU sales to Google in 2027 could reach “billions US$” revenue.</li>
</ul>


Korea semi export up 173% YoY, that’s Memory of course. As the mix moves towards more HBM and LPDDR, prices should keep going up.
TSMC steady 30% revenue growth YoY. Growth could accelerate in 2H26 on rapidly growing 2nm revenues (it’s gonna be a fast ramp to 100k wpm in 2H26).
Mediatek revenues decline year-to-date, that’s smartphone and consumer elec markets shrinking. The stock is up 200% YTD, TPU sales to Google in 2027 could reach “billions US$” revenue.


Semi Monthly Revenue, Korea (Memory), TSMC and Mediatek

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Packaging Scarcity Locks In to 2030, Intel Builds New Capacity to Compete

TSMC signs 10-year deal, Intel responds with packaging-focused foundry, Taiwan and Korea see growth in memory and passives.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330 TT) What Can Go Wrong: A Tail-Risk Framework for the World's Most Important Stock

TSMC's bull case at 24x forward P/E faces non-earnings tail risks that could reprice without fundamental change. Hyperscaler AI capex growth and...

Mo Aziz

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: ADR Spreads Staged Major Reversion

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Chips Rebound After Record Selloff; Rotation Out of Servers Into Semi Equipment

Taiwan and US chips rebounded unevenly, with semiconductor-equipment makers leading while server assemblers fell. TSMC's full capacity led Google...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Semi Monthly Revenue, Korea (Memory), TSMC and Mediatek

Korea's memory exports surge, TSMC sees steady growth, Mediatek faces revenue decline but potential for growth with TPU sales to Google in 2027.

Nicolas Baratte

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Packaging Scarcity Locks In to 2030, Intel Builds New Capacity to Compete

​TSMC signs 10-year deal, Intel responds with packaging-focused foundry, Taiwan and Korea see growth in memory and passives.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330 TT) What Can Go Wrong: A Tail-Risk Framework for the World's Most Important Stock

​TSMC's bull case at 24x forward P/E faces non-earnings tail risks that could reprice without fundamental change. Hyperscaler AI capex growth and...

Mo Aziz

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: ADR Spreads Staged Major Reversion

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Chips Rebound After Record Selloff; Rotation Out of Servers Into Semi Equipment

​Taiwan and US chips rebounded unevenly, with semiconductor-equipment makers leading while server assemblers fell. TSMC's full capacity led Google...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Semi Monthly Revenue, Korea (Memory), TSMC and Mediatek

​Korea's memory exports surge, TSMC sees steady growth, Mediatek faces revenue decline but potential for growth with TPU sales to Google in 2027.

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC signs 10-year deal, Intel responds with packaging-focused foundry, Taiwan and Korea see growth in memory and passives.

TSMC's bull case at 24x forward P/E faces non-earnings tail risks that could reprice without fundamental change. Hyperscaler AI capex growth and...

Taiwan and US chips rebounded unevenly, with semiconductor-equipment makers leading while server assemblers fell. TSMC's full capacity led Google...

Korea's memory exports surge, TSMC sees steady growth, Mediatek faces revenue decline but potential for growth with TPU sales to Google in 2027.