Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +10.2% Premium; Below -1 SD Band; Long the ADR Spread</li>
<li>UMC: -8.3% Discount; Below -1 SD Band; Long the ADR Spread</li>
<li>ASE: -11.3% Discount; Below -1 SD Band; Long the ADR Spread</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +10.2% Premium; Below -1 SD Band; Long the ADR Spread
UMC: -8.3% Discount; Below -1 SD Band; Long the ADR Spread
ASE: -11.3% Discount; Below -1 SD Band; Long the ADR Spread


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC, UMC, ASE and ChipMOS All Signal Long the ADR Spread

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>AMD’s unconditional commitments rose from $12.2bn at end-2025 to $30.3bn by June, all while management asks investors to focus on gross-profit dollars over gross-margin percentage.</li>
<li>Qualcomm is targeting $5bn of data-centre revenue in FY27 and $15bn-plus by FY29 from a base still measured in hundreds of millions, implying a steep physical-capacity ramp.</li>
<li>Qualcomm already has $769m of advance payments tied to multi-year chip-capacity commitments, while Amazon’s $60bn framework gives it demand visibility to reserve more supply ahead of revenue.</li>
</ul>


AMD’s unconditional commitments rose from $12.2bn at end-2025 to $30.3bn by June, all while management asks investors to focus on gross-profit dollars over gross-margin percentage.
Qualcomm is targeting $5bn of data-centre revenue in FY27 and $15bn-plus by FY29 from a base still measured in hundreds of millions, implying a steep physical-capacity ramp.
Qualcomm already has $769m of advance payments tied to multi-year chip-capacity commitments, while Amazon’s $60bn framework gives it demand visibility to reserve more supply ahead of revenue.


Fabless, Until Capacity Has to Be Financed

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>Global Expansion &amp; Operations : A total of 18 fabs are currently under construction or expansion worldwide, including 5 advanced packaging facilities.</li>
<li>Advanced Process Roadmap (N2 / A14 / A12): N2 Performance: First-year output is expected to exceed N3’s first year by 45%.</li>
<li>Next-Gen Technology: CFET-based SRAM cell area is 30% smaller than nanosheet designs.</li>
</ul>


Global Expansion &amp; Operations : A total of 18 fabs are currently under construction or expansion worldwide, including 5 advanced packaging facilities.
Advanced Process Roadmap (N2 / A14 / A12): N2 Performance: First-year output is expected to exceed N3’s first year by 45%.
Next-Gen Technology: CFET-based SRAM cell area is 30% smaller than nanosheet designs.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 2026 Symposium Held on May 14

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Analyzing last 18 year's year-on-year earnings growth patterns, we conclude that Asian earnings are highly cyclical, with average peak-to-trough length of 24-30 months, unless driven by a sharp liquidity spike.</li>
<li>Korean and Taiwanese earnings cycles are at their peaks and HK/China is close. Among the large markets, only India is at the bottom of its earnings growth cycle. </li>
<li>Onshore China valuations could stay flat; Taiwan PE could correct more. HK and Korean PE should rise. Indian valuations could correct slightly, in line with previous earnings cycle bottoms.</li>
</ul>


Analyzing last 18 year's year-on-year earnings growth patterns, we conclude that Asian earnings are highly cyclical, with average peak-to-trough length of 24-30 months, unless driven by a sharp liquidity spike.
Korean and Taiwanese earnings cycles are at their peaks and HK/China is close. Among the large markets, only India is at the bottom of its earnings growth cycle. 
Onshore China valuations could stay flat; Taiwan PE could correct more. HK and Korean PE should rise. Indian valuations could correct slightly, in line with previous earnings cycle bottoms.


Asian Equities: Earnings Cycles Are at Different Stages in Different Asian Markets

<ul>
<li>
Memory signals -- Memory revenue +309% YoY, still climbing month-to-month. Acer (+68%)  cites memory price hikes inducing PC pull-forward demand; Q2 PC revenue inflated,  Q3 unwind risk.</li>
<li>
AI server signals -- Demand sustained for four straight months at dedicated server assemblers. Quanta +121%, Wistron +112%, Inventec +37%, Hon Hai +30%; 4-month YTD  revenue growth +52%.</li>
<li>
Bifurcation signals -- AI server vs. non-AI server performance bifurcation widens... Display/Optics subsector revenue −2.7% YoY (first  chain-level negative).</li>
</ul>



Memory signals -- Memory revenue +309% YoY, still climbing month-to-month. Acer (+68%)  cites memory price hikes inducing PC pull-forward demand; Q2 PC revenue inflated,  Q3 unwind risk.

AI server signals -- Demand sustained for four straight months at dedicated server assemblers. Quanta +121%, Wistron +112%, Inventec +37%, Hon Hai +30%; 4-month YTD  revenue growth +52%.

Bifurcation signals -- AI server vs. non-AI server performance bifurcation widens... Display/Optics subsector revenue −2.7% YoY (first  chain-level negative).


Taiwan April Sales Signals: AI Server Ramp Sustains & Memory Cycle Bleeds Into PC OEMs

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC, UMC, ASE and ChipMOS All Signal Long the ADR Spread

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Fabless, Until Capacity Has to Be Financed

Fabless AI is getting less asset-light. We trace how AMD’s rising commitments, Nvidia’s scale and Qualcomm’s $15bn ambition are reshaping the...

Mint Finance

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 2026 Symposium Held on May 14

Global expansion in semiconductor manufacturing includes 18 fabs under construction, with advanced packaging facilities and next-gen technology...

Patrick Liao

Asian Equities: Earnings Cycles Are at Different Stages in Different Asian Markets

Asian earnings growth is cyclical. KR & TW are at their cyclical peaks, HK/CN are close. Earnings growth cycle in India is at its trough. HK & KR...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Taiwan April Sales Signals: AI Server Ramp Sustains & Memory Cycle Bleeds Into PC OEMs

Memory subsector revenue surges 309% YoY, driven by price hikes; AI server demand remains strong, while non-AI server performance falters.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC, UMC, ASE and ChipMOS All Signal Long the ADR Spread

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Fabless, Until Capacity Has to Be Financed

Fabless AI is getting less asset-light. We trace how AMD’s rising commitments, Nvidia’s scale and Qualcomm’s $15bn ambition are reshaping the...

Mint Finance

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 2026 Symposium Held on May 14

​Global expansion in semiconductor manufacturing includes 18 fabs under construction, with advanced packaging facilities and next-gen technology...

Patrick Liao

Asian Equities: Earnings Cycles Are at Different Stages in Different Asian Markets

Asian earnings growth is cyclical. KR & TW are at their cyclical peaks, HK/CN are close. Earnings growth cycle in India is at its trough. HK & KR...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Taiwan April Sales Signals: AI Server Ramp Sustains & Memory Cycle Bleeds Into PC OEMs

​Memory subsector revenue surges 309% YoY, driven by price hikes; AI server demand remains strong, while non-AI server performance falters.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Global expansion in semiconductor manufacturing includes 18 fabs under construction, with advanced packaging facilities and next-gen technology...

Memory subsector revenue surges 309% YoY, driven by price hikes; AI server demand remains strong, while non-AI server performance falters.