Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a> acquires <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia Holdings (3141 JP)</a> in just over 4 weeks. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)</a>'s tender offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a> could commence in December/January.</li>
<li>The enlarged <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a> could migrate upward in the MGlobal Index and that will bring in large passive flows. But there is one thing to watch out for.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia Holdings (3141 JP)</a> have outperformed peers over the last 6 months and now trade at a higher forward PE.</li>
</ul>



Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) acquires Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) in just over 4 weeks. Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)'s tender offer for Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) could commence in December/January.
The enlarged Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) could migrate upward in the MGlobal Index and that will bring in large passive flows. But there is one thing to watch out for.

Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) and Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) have outperformed peers over the last 6 months and now trade at a higher forward PE.


Tsuruha (3391 JP)/Welcia (3141 JP): Index Promotion & Passive Flows Likely Priced In

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist, Cameron Design

Jay Cameron

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist

Cameron Design

We specialize in financial products and volatility. Our strategies balance speed, data, and risk control to capture opportunities across global markets. Our research leverages AI and data analytics to continuously refine our algorithms and adapt to evolving market dynamics.

<ul>
<li>The Tsuruha-Welcia merger creates Japan's largest drugstore alliance, poised for long-term growth and market dominance, driven by an expected JPY 50B in synergies over three years.</li>
<li>A two-step corporate action—share exchange (Dec 1, 2025) followed by an Aeon TOB—provides structural certainty and strategic backing, securing the combined entity's market leadership.</li>
<li>These catalysts establish a large market leader in the consumer staples space, suggesting a timely opportunity to gain exposure to the new entity.</li>
</ul>


The Tsuruha-Welcia merger creates Japan's largest drugstore alliance, poised for long-term growth and market dominance, driven by an expected JPY 50B in synergies over three years.
A two-step corporate action—share exchange (Dec 1, 2025) followed by an Aeon TOB—provides structural certainty and strategic backing, securing the combined entity's market leadership.
These catalysts establish a large market leader in the consumer staples space, suggesting a timely opportunity to gain exposure to the new entity.


Tsuruha-Welcia Merger to Form Biggest Drugstore Alliance, +Aeon TOB

Director, Head of Research, Smartkarma

Pranav Rao

Director, Head of Research

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

<ul>
<li>Welcome to Curator’s Cut — a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,500+ insights published on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>In this cut, we review CATL's H-share lock-up expiry, iron ore equity opportunities in the face of Simandou's expected supply, and the accelerating consolidation in Japan's consumer sector.</li>
<li>Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next.</li>
</ul>


Welcome to Curator’s Cut — a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,500+ insights published on Smartkarma.
In this cut, we review CATL's H-share lock-up expiry, iron ore equity opportunities in the face of Simandou's expected supply, and the accelerating consolidation in Japan's consumer sector.
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next.


Curator's Cut: Powering Down CATL, Iron Ore Plays & Japan Consumer Consolidation

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The merger between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia Holdings (3141 JP)</a> will go through in about 6 weeks. In the interim, there are interesting events. </li>
<li>After, there is a Partial Tender Offer. I expect <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)</a> will have to pay up. </li>
<li>Furthermore, the stock is not overly expensive vs Peers AND there are synergies to come from the merger, making it relatively cheaper. It's not squeezy, but it's skewed.</li>
</ul>


The merger between Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) and Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) will go through in about 6 weeks. In the interim, there are interesting events. 
After, there is a Partial Tender Offer. I expect Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) will have to pay up. 
Furthermore, the stock is not overly expensive vs Peers AND there are synergies to come from the merger, making it relatively cheaper. It's not squeezy, but it's skewed.


[Japan Activism/M&A] - Closing In On the Tsuruha Partial Tender - Likely Needs To Be Higher

<ul>
<li>This morning the Nikkei <a href="https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUC234HG0T20C25A5000000/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> shareholders of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia Holdings (3141 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a> approved their Merger. Activists opposed but it was going to be close at best.</li>
<li>As <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-activism-m-a-thinking-about-positioning-around-the-tsuruha-welcia-vote" target="_blank" rel="noopener">expected</a>, Welcia shares popped, and the spread converged to 2% with Tsuruha falling back to just below ¥11,400. Some of this is unwind of speculative interest in Tsuruha.  </li>
<li>The new yuhos are out, which shows roughly where we stand (as of end-Feb, and some updates). Now the trade is NEWCO vs Aeon's interest and NEWCO vs World.</li>
</ul>


This morning the Nikkei reported shareholders of Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) and Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) approved their Merger. Activists opposed but it was going to be close at best.
As expected, Welcia shares popped, and the spread converged to 2% with Tsuruha falling back to just below ¥11,400. Some of this is unwind of speculative interest in Tsuruha.  
The new yuhos are out, which shows roughly where we stand (as of end-Feb, and some updates). Now the trade is NEWCO vs Aeon's interest and NEWCO vs World.


[Japan Activism/M&A] - Shareholders Approve Tsuruha/Welcia Merger - Now It's Partial Offer+Synergies

Japan

TSURUHA HOLDINGS INC. is a holding company which manages subsidiaries that operate drug stores in Hokkaido and the Tohoku area.  The Company's product line includes drugs, cosmetics, and household utensils.

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Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)

Tsuruha (3391 JP)/Welcia (3141 JP): Index Promotion & Passive Flows Likely Priced In

Passives trade Tsuruha and Welcia at the close today. Net flat across TOPIX and FGlobal but there is a fair bit to buy from MGlobal trackers. Both...

Brian Freitas

Tsuruha-Welcia Merger to Form Biggest Drugstore Alliance, +Aeon TOB

Last day of trading for Welcia coming up. Welcia/Tsuruha continues trading in a tight range at the share exchange ratio. Volume focused on the...

Jay Cameron

Curator's Cut: Powering Down CATL, Iron Ore Plays & Japan Consumer Consolidation

This Curator's Cut highlights CATL's premium powering down, iron ore opportunities even as Simandou goes live, and Japan's consumer sector...

Pranav Rao

[Japan Activism/M&A] - Closing In On the Tsuruha Partial Tender - Likely Needs To Be Higher

The Tsuruha/Welcia merger is official in 6 weeks. There is index buying between now and then, then a Partial Offer, then synergies to come. It's a...

Travis Lundy

[Japan Activism/M&A] - Shareholders Approve Tsuruha/Welcia Merger - Now It's Partial Offer+Synergies

Nikkei has reported the Welcia/Tsuruha merger is approved. Neither company has confirmed yet. But this means analysts start to look at synergies,...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Tsuruha (3391 JP)/Welcia (3141 JP): Index Promotion & Passive Flows Likely Priced In

Passives trade Tsuruha and Welcia at the close today. Net flat across TOPIX and FGlobal but there is a fair bit to buy from MGlobal trackers. Both...

Brian Freitas

Tsuruha-Welcia Merger to Form Biggest Drugstore Alliance, +Aeon TOB

Last day of trading for Welcia coming up. Welcia/Tsuruha continues trading in a tight range at the share exchange ratio. Volume focused on the...

Jay Cameron

Curator's Cut: Powering Down CATL, Iron Ore Plays & Japan Consumer Consolidation

This ​Curator's Cut highlights CATL's premium powering down, iron ore opportunities even as Simandou goes live, and Japan's consumer sector...

Pranav Rao

[Japan Activism/M&A] - Closing In On the Tsuruha Partial Tender - Likely Needs To Be Higher

The Tsuruha/Welcia merger is official in 6 weeks. There is index buying between now and then, then a Partial Offer, then synergies to come. It's a...

Travis Lundy

[Japan Activism/M&A] - Shareholders Approve Tsuruha/Welcia Merger - Now It's Partial Offer+Synergies

Nikkei has reported the Welcia/Tsuruha merger is approved. Neither company has confirmed yet. But this means analysts start to look at synergies,...

Travis Lundy

This Curator's Cut highlights CATL's premium powering down, iron ore opportunities even as Simandou goes live, and Japan's consumer sector...