Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Sree Capital

Sreemant Dudhoria

Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Fundamental Research on Listed Indian Companies

Sree Capital

Sree Capital is a platform to share fundamental research on listed Indian companies. We do this research for our own investment

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hero-motocorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2391:1" rel="noopener">Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)</a>’s April Slump: Operational, Not Structural Temporary plant shutdowns dragged volumes; normalization expected. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bajaj-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3613:1" rel="noopener">Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN)</a> : Domestic Drag, Exports Hold Up.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tvs-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16123:1" rel="noopener">TVS Motor (TVSL IN)</a> : Momentum + Execution = Strong across domestic, exports, and EVs. Growth outperformance could justify its valuation premium — but how long can it hold?</li>
<li>
Demand Tailwinds Strengthen into May : Favorable marriage seasonality, recovering rural sentiment, and lean channel inventory suggest a stronger May — key for stocks at current levels.</li>
</ul>



Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)’s April Slump: Operational, Not Structural Temporary plant shutdowns dragged volumes; normalization expected. Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN) : Domestic Drag, Exports Hold Up.

TVS Motor (TVSL IN) : Momentum + Execution = Strong across domestic, exports, and EVs. Growth outperformance could justify its valuation premium — but how long can it hold?

Demand Tailwinds Strengthen into May : Favorable marriage seasonality, recovering rural sentiment, and lean channel inventory suggest a stronger May — key for stocks at current levels.


Two-Wheeler Sales – April 2025; Divergent Trends. Top Takeaways

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>UltraTech Cement: We maintain BUY on UltraTech (UTCEM) with a revised target price of INR 12,600 (valuing it at 17x Mar-27E consolidated EBITDA)</li><li>In Q4FY25, UTCEM delivered robust 17% volume growth (aided by Kesoram and India Cements consolidation)</li><li>Unit EBITDA expanded INR 223/MT QoQ to INR 1,126/MT on input cost reduction and op-lev gains, which more than offset the impact of poor performance of Kesoram and India Cements</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

UltraTech Cement: We maintain BUY on UltraTech (UTCEM) with a revised target price of INR 12,600 (valuing it at 17x Mar-27E consolidated EBITDA)In Q4FY25, UTCEM delivered robust 17% volume growth (aided by Kesoram and India Cements consolidation)Unit EBITDA expanded INR 223/MT QoQ to INR 1,126/MT on input cost reduction and op-lev gains, which more than offset the impact of poor performance of Kesoram and India CementsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: UltraTech Cement, TVS Motor, Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company,...

HSIE Results Daily: UltraTech Cement, TVS Motor, Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>March 2025 was a great month for electric two wheeler sales. However mid month April registration numbers show steep decline in volumes.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bajaj-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3613:1" rel="noopener">Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tvs-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16123:1" rel="noopener">TVS Motor (TVSL IN)</a> witness steep decline in volume versus March 2025.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ola-electric-mobility-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40618:1" rel="noopener">Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN)</a> leads the table with the highest registration.</li>
</ul>


March 2025 was a great month for electric two wheeler sales. However mid month April registration numbers show steep decline in volumes.

Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN) and TVS Motor (TVSL IN) witness steep decline in volume versus March 2025.

Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN) leads the table with the highest registration.


Mid-Month Electric Two-Wheeler Update: Bajaj Auto and TVS Motor Witness Steep Decline

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Auto OEMs: We expect Revenue/EBITDA/PAT for our OEM coverage universe to grow by ~8.5%/8.8%/9.3% YoY with flat EBITDA Margins.</li><li>The growth will be driven by i) Mid to High Single-digit volume growth in 2Ws, ii) Low to mid-singledigit growth for PVs/CVs, and iii) Low teens volume growth in the tractor industry.</li><li>The expected YoY EBITDA margin remains flattish due to higher discounts/ advertisement expenses and negative operating leverage being partly offset by price hikes taken over the past year. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Auto OEMs: We expect Revenue/EBITDA/PAT for our OEM coverage universe to grow by ~8.5%/8.8%/9.3% YoY with flat EBITDA Margins.The growth will be driven by i) Mid to High Single-digit volume growth in 2Ws, ii) Low to mid-singledigit growth for PVs/CVs, and iii) Low teens volume growth in the tractor industry.The expected YoY EBITDA margin remains flattish due to higher discounts/ advertisement expenses and negative operating leverage being partly offset by price hikes taken over the past year. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India

TVS Motor Company is an Indian multinational manufacturer of two-wheelers and three-wheelers, including motorcycles, scooters, mopeds, and electric vehicles. The company also offers financial services, insurance, and vehicle repairs. It is headquartered in Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India, and was founded in 1978.

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TVS Motor Company (TVSL IN)

Two-Wheeler Sales – April 2025; Divergent Trends. Top Takeaways

Hero Motocorp's April slump due to temporary plant shutdowns, while TVS Motor shows strong momentum and execution. Demand tailwinds expected to...

Sreemant Dudhoria

HSIE Results Daily: UltraTech Cement, TVS Motor, Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company,...

UltraTech Cement: We maintain BUY on UltraTech (UTCEM) with a revised target price of INR 12,600 (valuing it at 17x Mar-27E consolidated EBITDA)

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: UltraTech Cement, TVS Motor, Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company

UltraTech Cement: We maintain BUY on UltraTech (UTCEM) with a revised target price of INR 12,600 (valuing it at 17x Mar-27E consolidated EBITDA)

HDFC Securities

Mid-Month Electric Two-Wheeler Update: Bajaj Auto and TVS Motor Witness Steep Decline

March'25 saw surge in EV 2W sales, but mid-April registrations show a significant decline in volumes, with Bajaj Auto and TVS Motor experiencing...

Sreemant Dudhoria

Q4FY25 Earnings Preview - Automobile

Auto OEMs: We expect Revenue/EBITDA/PAT for our OEM coverage universe to grow by ~8.5%/8.8%/9.3% YoY with flat EBITDA Margins.

Axis Direct

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Two-Wheeler Sales – April 2025; Divergent Trends. Top Takeaways

​Hero Motocorp's April slump due to temporary plant shutdowns, while TVS Motor shows strong momentum and execution. Demand tailwinds expected to...

Sreemant Dudhoria

HSIE Results Daily: UltraTech Cement, TVS Motor, Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company,...

UltraTech Cement: We maintain BUY on UltraTech (UTCEM) with a revised target price of INR 12,600 (valuing it at 17x Mar-27E consolidated EBITDA)

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: UltraTech Cement, TVS Motor, Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company

UltraTech Cement: We maintain BUY on UltraTech (UTCEM) with a revised target price of INR 12,600 (valuing it at 17x Mar-27E consolidated EBITDA)

HDFC Securities

Mid-Month Electric Two-Wheeler Update: Bajaj Auto and TVS Motor Witness Steep Decline

​March'25 saw surge in EV 2W sales, but mid-April registrations show a significant decline in volumes, with Bajaj Auto and TVS Motor experiencing...

Sreemant Dudhoria

Q4FY25 Earnings Preview - Automobile

Auto OEMs: We expect Revenue/EBITDA/PAT for our OEM coverage universe to grow by ~8.5%/8.8%/9.3% YoY with flat EBITDA Margins.

Axis Direct

Hero Motocorp's April slump due to temporary plant shutdowns, while TVS Motor shows strong momentum and execution. Demand tailwinds expected to...

March'25 saw surge in EV 2W sales, but mid-April registrations show a significant decline in volumes, with Bajaj Auto and TVS Motor experiencing...