Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our two previous Int'l Compass reports (Aug. 18 &amp; 24) we discussed that we were buyers on the pullback to the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>$93 on ACWI is 1+ year base support and a level that coincides with the 10-month uptrend. We remain bullish as long as the ACWI-US is above $93.</li>
<li>$93 on ACWI-US is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY can stay below respective resistance levels (4.3%-4.35% and $103.70-$105.70).</li>
</ul>


In our two previous Int'l Compass reports (Aug. 18 &amp; 24) we discussed that we were buyers on the pullback to the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
$93 on ACWI is 1+ year base support and a level that coincides with the 10-month uptrend. We remain bullish as long as the ACWI-US is above $93.
$93 on ACWI-US is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY can stay below respective resistance levels (4.3%-4.35% and $103.70-$105.70).


Further Declines in DXY, Sovereign Yields May Provide More Fuel for a Rally in Global Equities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The companies under our coverage reported Revenue/EBITDA/PAT growth of +19%/+50%/+88% YoY against expectation of +18%/+49%/+69% driven by higher ASPs, sales volumes, and operating leverage.</li><li>On a QoQ basis, the aggregate Revenue/EBITDA/PAT growth/de-growth stood at -0.6%/-2.3%/+5%, against expectation of -1.3%/-2.6%/-6%.</li><li>The QoQ drag was largely led by Maruti and Ashok Leyland on account of lower sales volumes QoQ. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The companies under our coverage reported Revenue/EBITDA/PAT growth of +19%/+50%/+88% YoY against expectation of +18%/+49%/+69% driven by higher ASPs, sales volumes, and operating leverage.On a QoQ basis, the aggregate Revenue/EBITDA/PAT growth/de-growth stood at -0.6%/-2.3%/+5%, against expectation of -1.3%/-2.6%/-6%.The QoQ drag was largely led by Maruti and Ashok Leyland on account of lower sales volumes QoQ. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>The companies under our coverage reported Revenue/EBITDA/PAT growth of +19%/+50%/+88% YoY against expectation of +18%/+49%/+69% driven by higher ASPs, sales volumes, and operating leverage.</li><li>On a QoQ basis, the aggregate Revenue/EBITDA/PAT growth/de-growth stood at -0.6%/-2.3%/+5%, against expectation of -1.3%/-2.6%/-6%.</li><li>The QoQ drag was largely led by Maruti and Ashok Leyland on account of lower sales volumes QoQ.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The companies under our coverage reported Revenue/EBITDA/PAT growth of +19%/+50%/+88% YoY against expectation of +18%/+49%/+69% driven by higher ASPs, sales volumes, and operating leverage.On a QoQ basis, the aggregate Revenue/EBITDA/PAT growth/de-growth stood at -0.6%/-2.3%/+5%, against expectation of -1.3%/-2.6%/-6%.The QoQ drag was largely led by Maruti and Ashok Leyland on account of lower sales volumes QoQ.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Top Sector Ideas - Auto and Auto Ancillaries

Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Sree Capital

Sreemant Dudhoria

Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Fundamental Research on Listed Indian Companies

Sree Capital

Sree Capital is a platform to share fundamental research on listed Indian companies. We do this research for our own investment

Equity Bottom-Up

Tata Investment Corporation / Equity Bottom-Up

Tata Investment Corporation (TATAINVE IN)

<ul>
<li>This insight details about the weekly changes in the holding company discount in India.</li>
<li>We track the reasons for change in the holdco discount if any and upcoming triggers for these companies.</li>
<li>While this note captures 5 holding companies, we intend to add more names in coming weeks.</li>
</ul>


This insight details about the weekly changes in the holding company discount in India.
We track the reasons for change in the holdco discount if any and upcoming triggers for these companies.
While this note captures 5 holding companies, we intend to add more names in coming weeks.


HoldCo Weekly (14 Aug): Where’s the Discount?

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities are under some pressure after Fitch downgraded the United States' credit rating to AA+ from AAA.</li>
<li>We expect that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the 50-day MA or major $93 support level on the MSCI ACWI <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-acwi-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24402:1" rel="noopener">iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US)</a> .</li>
<li>$TNX is below 4.1%-4.3% and DXY remains in an 8-month downtrend; as long as this remains true, we'd buy on a pullback to the 50-day MA and/or $93 on ACWI-US</li>
</ul>


Global equities are under some pressure after Fitch downgraded the United States' credit rating to AA+ from AAA.
We expect that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the 50-day MA or major $93 support level on the MSCI ACWI iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US) .
$TNX is below 4.1%-4.3% and DXY remains in an 8-month downtrend; as long as this remains true, we'd buy on a pullback to the 50-day MA and/or $93 on ACWI-US


Normal Pullback, or Something More?; Watching Resistance on DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys

India

TVS Motor Company is an Indian multinational manufacturer of two-wheelers and three-wheelers, including motorcycles, scooters, mopeds, and electric vehicles. The company also offers financial services, insurance, and vehicle repairs. It is headquartered in Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India, and was founded in 1978.

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TVS Motor Company (TVSL IN)

Further Declines in DXY, Sovereign Yields May Provide More Fuel for a Rally in Global Equities

We continue to believe $93 on $ACWI is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield $TNX and $DXY can stay below their...

Vermilion Research

Auto Sector: Q1FY24 Review

The companies under our coverage reported Revenue/EBITDA/PAT growth of +19%/+50%/+88% YoY against expectation of +18%/+49%/+69% driven by higher ASPs

Axis Direct

Top Sector Ideas - Auto and Auto Ancillaries

The companies under our coverage reported Revenue/EBITDA/PAT growth of +19%/+50%/+88% YoY against expectation of +18%/+49%/+69% driven by higher...

Axis Direct

HoldCo Weekly (14 Aug): Where’s the Discount?

Insight details about the weekly changes in the holding company discount in India and upcoming triggers for these companies.

Sreemant Dudhoria

Normal Pullback, or Something More?; Watching Resistance on DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys

Normal Pullback, or Something More for global equities?; Watch Resistance on $DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys in Consumer Discretionary...

Vermilion Research

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