Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Global equities (MSCI ACWI) continue to hold above $93 on ACWI-US, a level that, since January, we had anticipated would cap upside in 2023. </li>
<li>While ACWI-US remains below $96-$97 (a target we discussed was possible in our April 18, 2023 Int’l Macro Vision), we could easily see $93 act as support moving forward.</li>
<li>Therefore, we are bullish on global equities as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110.29. This is the measured move price target following the inverse head-and-shoulders breakout.</li>
</ul>


Global equities (MSCI ACWI) continue to hold above $93 on ACWI-US, a level that, since January, we had anticipated would cap upside in 2023. 
While ACWI-US remains below $96-$97 (a target we discussed was possible in our April 18, 2023 Int’l Macro Vision), we could easily see $93 act as support moving forward.
Therefore, we are bullish on global equities as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110.29. This is the measured move price target following the inverse head-and-shoulders breakout.


MSCI ACWI-US Bullish Above $93; EURO STOXX 50 Holding At Uptrend; Buys in Discretionary, Tech, Svcs.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Q4FY23 earnings season saw an overall in-line performance, with wide divergences across sectors and companies</li><li>Aggregate revenue/PAT grew by 13%/9% YoY across the HSIE coverage (~215 stocks), their two-year CAGR being 19%/15%</li><li>Our coverage universe saw strong YoY revenue growth in auto, lending financials, industrials, IT, cement and power sectors</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Q4FY23 earnings season saw an overall in-line performance, with wide divergences across sectors and companiesAggregate revenue/PAT grew by 13%/9% YoY across the HSIE coverage (~215 stocks), their two-year CAGR being 19%/15%Our coverage universe saw strong YoY revenue growth in auto, lending financials, industrials, IT, cement and power sectorsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India Equity Strategy - Banks Continue to Lead the Pack; Profitability Improves for Most Sectors

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><p>The companies under our coverage reported Revenue/EBITDA/PAT growth of +20%/+33%/+33% YoY against expectation of +19%/+29%/+29%.</p></li><li><p>Revenue/EBITDA/PAT growth of +8%/+15%/+14% QoQ, against expectation of +8%/+11%/+11% was driven by higher ASPs, sales volumes, and operating leverage.</p></li><li><p>EBITDA margins expanded by 130bps YoY and 80bps QoQ on account of higher ASP’s (led by product premiumisation) and higher operating leverage, led by higher sales volumes.</p></li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

The companies under our coverage reported Revenue/EBITDA/PAT growth of +20%/+33%/+33% YoY against expectation of +19%/+29%/+29%.Revenue/EBITDA/PAT growth of +8%/+15%/+14% QoQ, against expectation of +8%/+11%/+11% was driven by higher ASPs, sales volumes, and operating leverage.EBITDA margins expanded by 130bps YoY and 80bps QoQ on account of higher ASP’s (led by product premiumisation) and higher operating leverage, led by higher sales volumes.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Top Sector Ideas - Auto and Auto Ancillaries

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>May’23 Wholesale Volumes: Domestic 2W dispatches stood strong, PV up YoY (flat MoM) while CV/Tractor sales were mixed: The Domestic 2W industry reported strong growth of ~27% YoY (albeit on a low base), even with some recovery evident on an MoM basis (up 18% MoM).</li><li>2W exports remained weak YoY, but has improved MoM (Bajaj and TVS exports up by 6-7% MoM).</li><li>The domestic PV industry reported a robust 16% YoY growth (flat MoM) despite a few OEMs having reported production constraints (M&amp;M and Maruti pointed towards chip shortages).  </li></ul></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

May’23 Wholesale Volumes: Domestic 2W dispatches stood strong, PV up YoY (flat MoM) while CV/Tractor sales were mixed: The Domestic 2W industry reported strong growth of ~27% YoY (albeit on a low base), even with some recovery evident on an MoM basis (up 18% MoM).2W exports remained weak YoY, but has improved MoM (Bajaj and TVS exports up by 6-7% MoM).The domestic PV industry reported a robust 16% YoY growth (flat MoM) despite a few OEMs having reported production constraints (M&amp;M and Maruti pointed towards chip shortages).  Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Monthly Volume Update - Automotive Industry

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) has continued to hold above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand, meaning we are constructive from a price perspective.</li>
<li>We have maintained an underweight to emerging markets, and we are overweight developed international (MSCI EAFE, Europe, Japan) as discussed in in <em>Int’l Compass</em> and <em>ETF Pathfinder</em> reports throughout 2023.</li>
<li>Still, there are plenty of attractive countries and Sectors within the EM landscape, which is what we are focusing on today.</li>
</ul>


MSCI EM (EEM-US) has continued to hold above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand, meaning we are constructive from a price perspective.
We have maintained an underweight to emerging markets, and we are overweight developed international (MSCI EAFE, Europe, Japan) as discussed in in Int’l Compass and ETF Pathfinder reports throughout 2023.
Still, there are plenty of attractive countries and Sectors within the EM landscape, which is what we are focusing on today.


EM Strategy: MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving-Overweight; Overweights: Taiwan, India, Mexico

India

TVS Motor Company is an Indian multinational manufacturer of two-wheelers and three-wheelers, including motorcycles, scooters, mopeds, and electric vehicles. The company also offers financial services, insurance, and vehicle repairs. It is headquartered in Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India, and was founded in 1978.

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TVS Motor Company (TVSL IN)

MSCI ACWI-US Bullish Above $93; EURO STOXX 50 Holding At Uptrend; Buys in Discretionary, Tech, Svcs.

MSCI $ACWI Bullish Above $93, inverse head-and-shoulders breakout targets $110; EURO $STOXX 50 Holding At the Uptrend; Buys in Consumer...

Vermilion Research

India Equity Strategy - Banks Continue to Lead the Pack; Profitability Improves for Most Sectors

Q4FY23 earnings season saw an overall in-line performance, with wide divergences across sectors and companies. Aggregate revenue/PAT grew by 13%/9%...

HDFC Securities

Top Sector Ideas - Auto and Auto Ancillaries

The companies under our coverage reported Revenue/EBITDA/PAT growth of +20%/+33%/+33% YoY against expectation of +19%/+29%/+29%.

Axis Direct

Monthly Volume Update - Automotive Industry

The Domestic 2W industry reported strong growth of ~27% YoY (albeit on a low base), even with some recovery evident on an MoM basis (up 18% MoM).

Axis Direct

EM Strategy: MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving-Overweight; Overweights: Taiwan, India, Mexico

MSCI EM Financials & Energy Improving -- Upgrading to Overweight; MSCI EM Technology remains an Overweight. Top Country Overweights: Taiwan, India,...

Vermilion Research

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