TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>How long until SNAP gets back to Zuck's original $3B buyout offer?!</li>
<li>Key negative point: US engagement dropped 5% despite user growth +4%...we think its BeReal as much as TikTok.</li>
<li>Uninvestable or Long Time Horizon? Least visibility of any major public company we've ever followed. Don't know the answer!</li>
</ul>


How long until SNAP gets back to Zuck's original $3B buyout offer?!
Key negative point: US engagement dropped 5% despite user growth +4%...we think its BeReal as much as TikTok.
Uninvestable or Long Time Horizon? Least visibility of any major public company we've ever followed. Don't know the answer!


Global Automotive Stocks/EV Focus/Event Driven, SC Capital

SC Capital

Global Automotive Stocks/EV Focus/Event Driven

Over 22 years covering Japanese equities on both the sell side and the buy side. 

Bottom-up Japan Equities Research

<ul>
<li>Tesla's Q3 revenues missed by 2%, while GAAP EPS was in-line with consensus and adjusted EPS only beat by 5.4%. Tesla hasn't seen numbers this weak since Q4 2020.</li>
<li>The closely watched Autmotive gross margin (ex-ZEV credits) were much worse than expected at 26.8% versus consensus estimates of 27.5%. </li>
<li>On the earnings call, Musk said he would be buying Twitter. This will only add to the selling pressure from Tesla's weak Q3 results throughout next week. </li>
</ul>


Tesla's Q3 revenues missed by 2%, while GAAP EPS was in-line with consensus and adjusted EPS only beat by 5.4%. Tesla hasn't seen numbers this weak since Q4 2020.
The closely watched Autmotive gross margin (ex-ZEV credits) were much worse than expected at 26.8% versus consensus estimates of 27.5%. 
On the earnings call, Musk said he would be buying Twitter. This will only add to the selling pressure from Tesla's weak Q3 results throughout next week. 


Tesla's Q3 Results Disappoint for the First Time Since Q4 2020

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC, Bond Angle, LLC

Vicki Bryan

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC

Bond Angle, LLC

Insightful commentary and analysis on bond markets and market movers, including financial, economic, and industry catalysts and management shenanigans. 

High yield market investment research

Credit

<ul>
<li>
Tesla is burning billions as sales are slowing in its most important markets—as I long have warned. </li>
<li>Meanwhile, Elon also owes billions to pay for Twitter &amp; investors are wary buying its LBO bonds needed to help fund the deal. </li>
<li>
Could Elon be thinking it's time to sell now BBB-rated Tesla bonds to raise a few extra billion dollars?</li>
</ul>



Tesla is burning billions as sales are slowing in its most important markets—as I long have warned. 
Meanwhile, Elon also owes billions to pay for Twitter &amp; investors are wary buying its LBO bonds needed to help fund the deal. 

Could Elon be thinking it's time to sell now BBB-rated Tesla bonds to raise a few extra billion dollars?


Is Elon About To Tap Tesla For Billions in Debt To Bolster Cash—And Help Him Buy Twitter?

<ul>
<li>Tesla will announce Q3 2022 earnings results after the US market close on October 19th. </li>
<li>Given that CEO Elon Musk needs to sell more of his Tesla shares to fund his Twitter buyout by month end, the Street widely expects a huge earnings beat. </li>
<li>Q3 fundamentals were weak for Tesla and orders in Q4 point to another delivery miss versus consensus. We recommend selling into any spike on a positive Q3 print. </li>
</ul>


Tesla will announce Q3 2022 earnings results after the US market close on October 19th. 
Given that CEO Elon Musk needs to sell more of his Tesla shares to fund his Twitter buyout by month end, the Street widely expects a huge earnings beat. 
Q3 fundamentals were weak for Tesla and orders in Q4 point to another delivery miss versus consensus. We recommend selling into any spike on a positive Q3 print. 


Tesla Q3 Earnings Preview--Beat Widely Expected Due to Musk's Twitter Deal

<ul>
<li>Elon to Judge: Twitter Lies! Twitter is a fraudster! I am NOT buying Twitter! </li>
<li>Also Elon: Never mind. Carry on. Twitter: Riiiight. We'll see.</li>
<li>Elon's Bankers: WUT? WE HAVE TO SELL "CCC" LBP BONDS NO ONE WANTS TO BUY?</li>
</ul>


Elon to Judge: Twitter Lies! Twitter is a fraudster! I am NOT buying Twitter! 
Also Elon: Never mind. Carry on. Twitter: Riiiight. We'll see.
Elon's Bankers: WUT? WE HAVE TO SELL "CCC" LBP BONDS NO ONE WANTS TO BUY?


Elon V. Twitter: Elon Caved...For Sure...Maybe

United States

Twitter, Inc. provides online social networking and microblogging service. The Company offers users the ability to follow other users activity, read, and post tweets. Twitter serves customers worldwide.

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Twitter Inc (TWTR US)

Snap 3Q22: Tik Tik Tik (Tok) …BOOM

3rd 30% drop in a year? Any glimmer of hope? Still growing user base...but US engagement dropped 5% despite user growth +4%...we think its BeReal...

Aaron Gabin

Tesla's Q3 Results Disappoint for the First Time Since Q4 2020

What was expected to be a Q3 beat at Tesla turned into a Q3 disappointment. Many accounting tricks appear to have padded cash flows and Tesla...

SC Capital

Is Elon About To Tap Tesla For Billions in Debt To Bolster Cash—And Help Him Buy Twitter?

Tesla is burning billions as sales are slowing in its most important markets. Elon also owes billions to pay for Twitter & investors are wary of...

Vicki Bryan

Tesla Q3 Earnings Preview--Beat Widely Expected Due to Musk's Twitter Deal

Tesla could announce a huge Q3 beat and possibly a share buyback, as Musk needs to sell more Tesla shares in order to fund his Twitter buyout by...

SC Capital

Elon V. Twitter: Elon Caved...For Sure...Maybe

Elon to Judge: Twitter Lies! Twitter is a fraudster! I'm NOT buying Twitter! Also Elon: Never mind. Carry on. Twitter: Hmm. Elon's Bankers: WUT? WE...

Vicki Bryan

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