Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Yuanta/P-shares Dividend Plus ETF (0056 TT) started to rebalance its holdings on Friday and will continue to do so for the next 4 trading days.</li>
<li>Stocks with buy flows dropped 1.82% on average on Friday while the stocks with sell flows rose 1.03%. On a flow weighted basis, the numbers were -2.01% vs +1.09%.</li>
<li>Given the large volumes at auction and the large moves on stocks, we cannot rule out the possibility that a lot of pre-positions were unwound at the close on Friday.</li>
</ul>


The Yuanta/P-shares Dividend Plus ETF (0056 TT) started to rebalance its holdings on Friday and will continue to do so for the next 4 trading days.
Stocks with buy flows dropped 1.82% on average on Friday while the stocks with sell flows rose 1.03%. On a flow weighted basis, the numbers were -2.01% vs +1.09%.
Given the large volumes at auction and the large moves on stocks, we cannot rule out the possibility that a lot of pre-positions were unwound at the close on Friday.


Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF: Day 1 Flows & Performance

Global Special Situations & Strategy, SR Services Ltd

David Lepper

Global Special Situations & Strategy

SR Services Ltd

SR Services provides Strategic Knowledge and Solutions services for Family Offices and Corporate Business. 

We deliver this via advisory services, strategic planning, opportunity analysis/sourcing, as well as solution implementation. 

Whilst, we create intellectual discipline and operational leverage for your projects or daily activities, our ultimate objective is to empower whilst enhancing your decision making. 

Strategic Knowledge and Solutions

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>
Our Q3-2021 All Cap High-Risk screen of stocks produced a market-cap-weighted average price return of 2% and a simple average decline of 0.2%.</li>
<li>
Out of the 34 stocks that appeared in our Q3-2021 screen, 15 stocks saw an average share price decline of 11.5%, whilst 19 stocks appreciated on average by 14%. The two biggest declining stock  were down 25% and 19% respectively.</li>
<li>Our Q4 2021 screen, with 38 names (up from 34 seen in Q3 and Q2 2021) delivers an interesting composition this quarter, </li>
<li>
As in the previous few quarters, we anticipate the possibility of a risk of deteriorating credit metrics during the next few quarters: Q4 2021’s Altman Z score rests at 1.23, which is just up on Q3 2021’s level of 1.19.</li>
</ul>



Our Q3-2021 All Cap High-Risk screen of stocks produced a market-cap-weighted average price return of 2% and a simple average decline of 0.2%.

Out of the 34 stocks that appeared in our Q3-2021 screen, 15 stocks saw an average share price decline of 11.5%, whilst 19 stocks appreciated on average by 14%. The two biggest declining stock  were down 25% and 19% respectively.
Our Q4 2021 screen, with 38 names (up from 34 seen in Q3 and Q2 2021) delivers an interesting composition this quarter, 

As in the previous few quarters, we anticipate the possibility of a risk of deteriorating credit metrics during the next few quarters: Q4 2021’s Altman Z score rests at 1.23, which is just up on Q3 2021’s level of 1.19.


Screening the Silk Road: Q4 2021 High-Risk Names to Avoid

<h2>Eight new names, SoftBank remains for the 3rd quarter running</h2>
<ul>
<li>
OurQ2-2021 All Cap High-Risk screen of stocks produced a market cap-weighted average price decline of 2%. In comparison, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index posted a decline of 1.7% over the same period. The stock quality of our Q2 2021 decreased 2.4 points or 3.8% over the period. Within the mix of 34 stocks in our Q2 2021 (May) list 19 posted negative performance, with an average decline of 14.1%.</li>
<li>
At a static number of 34 stocks our Q3 2021 screen, delivers an interesting composition this quarter, with eight (8) new names and strong representation from Hong Kong in terms of geography and Industrials and Basic Materials from a sector perspective. This suggests that the “reopening of the economy” trade may have run its course for now.</li>
<li>Our Q3 2021 screen shows a further reduction in average stock rank (a reading on relative quality amongst the broad market peers with 100 being the highest) to 61 from 65.18 in Q2 2021.</li>
<li>
Stock specific focus: We discuss why SoftBank stands out as a stock that presents with additional risk. We also discuss the fact that whilst there is a high representation of Industrials in the list, within this list, there are several names that may warrant not being too bearish towards.</li>
</ul>

Eight new names, SoftBank remains for the 3rd quarter running


OurQ2-2021 All Cap High-Risk screen of stocks produced a market cap-weighted average price decline of 2%. In comparison, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index posted a decline of 1.7% over the same period. The stock quality of our Q2 2021 decreased 2.4 points or 3.8% over the period. Within the mix of 34 stocks in our Q2 2021 (May) list 19 posted negative performance, with an average decline of 14.1%.

At a static number of 34 stocks our Q3 2021 screen, delivers an interesting composition this quarter, with eight (8) new names and strong representation from Hong Kong in terms of geography and Industrials and Basic Materials from a sector perspective. This suggests that the “reopening of the economy” trade may have run its course for now.
Our Q3 2021 screen shows a further reduction in average stock rank (a reading on relative quality amongst the broad market peers with 100 being the highest) to 61 from 65.18 in Q2 2021.

Stock specific focus: We discuss why SoftBank stands out as a stock that presents with additional risk. We also discuss the fact that whilst there is a high representation of Industrials in the list, within this list, there are several names that may warrant not being too bearish towards.


Screening the Silk Road: Q3 2021 High-Risk Names to Avoid

CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Good price momentum, relatively strong analyst recommendation, and capable of funding growth internally relative to its sector</li>
<li>With main plants and logistics centers in the thriving Yangtze River basin ACC is well positioned to leverage into current firm pricing in China, 2Q18 sales rose 38% YoY and gross profit margin expanded 11ppts</li>
<li>Profit growth to be supported by the combination of ongoing production restrictions by China’s government and the next 5-year plan for infrastructure building</li>
<li>Trades above Asian Materials at 18CE* 15.8x PE, in line with better earnings growth outlook</li>
<li>Risk: Vulnerable to any sudden pricing downturn</li>
</ul>* Consensus Estimates


Good price momentum, relatively strong analyst recommendation, and capable of funding growth internally relative to its sector
With main plants and logistics centers in the thriving Yangtze River basin ACC is well positioned to leverage into current firm pricing in China, 2Q18 sales rose 38% YoY and gross profit margin expanded 11ppts
Profit growth to be supported by the combination of ongoing production restrictions by China’s government and the next 5-year plan for infrastructure building
Trades above Asian Materials at 18CE* 15.8x PE, in line with better earnings growth outlook
Risk: Vulnerable to any sudden pricing downturn
* Consensus Estimates

ACC (1102 TT): Good Momentum in Taiwan’s No. 2 Cement Producer

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

At the risk of making <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/149" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:149:1">Smartkarma (SMARTKARMA SP)</a> seem like a New Orleans confessional the day after Mardi Gras, here's another analyst 'confession' readers can file alongside <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/342" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:342">Douglas Kim</a>'s excellent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/confessions-of-an-independent-research-analyst" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15143">Confessions of an Independent Research Analyst</a> (and interesting pieces in a similar, reflective vein from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/941" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:941">Hemindra Hazari</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1364" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1364">Nandini Vijayaraghavan, CFA</a>, which you can find <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-profits-and-perils-of-independent-large-cap-research" target="_blank">here</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/institutionalised-quirks-for-analysts-to-ponder" target="_blank">here</a>). <h2>Some (Fairly Ancient) History...</h2>By way of introduction, I have now been posting here at Smartkarma for almost…

At the risk of making Smartkarma (SMARTKARMA SP) seem like a New Orleans confessional the day after Mardi Gras, here's another analyst 'confession' readers can file alongside Douglas Kim's excellent Confessions of an Independent Research Analyst (and interesting pieces in a similar, reflective vein from Hemindra Hazari and Nandini Vijayaraghavan, CFA, which you can find here and here). Some (Fairly Ancient) History...By way of introduction, I have now been posting here at Smartkarma for almost…

Confessions of a Shipping Analyst (Or, 'Voyage of the Damned, Asian Equity Research Version')

Taiwan

U-Ming Marine Transport Corporation operates in the tramp shipping business. The Company mainly ships bulk raw materials such as iron ore, coal, grains, and cement.

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U Ming Marine Transport Corp (2606 TT)

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF: Day 1 Flows & Performance

The Yuanta/P-shares Dividend Plus ETF (0056 TT) started to rebalance its holdings on Friday and will continue to do so for the next 4 trading days....

Brian Freitas

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David Lepper

Screening the Silk Road: Q3 2021 High-Risk Names to Avoid

Screening the Silk Road Q3 2021: Asia Pac High-risk names to avoid screening is out now. Eight new names, despite being down 23%, SoftBank remains...

David Lepper

ACC (1102 TT): Good Momentum in Taiwan’s No. 2 Cement Producer

Good price momentum, relatively strong analyst recommendation, and capable of funding growth internally relative to its sector With main plants...

A. Stotz Investment Research

Confessions of a Shipping Analyst (Or, 'Voyage of the Damned, Asian Equity Research Version')

At the risk of making Smartkarma (SMARTKARMA SP) seem like a New Orleans confessional the day after Mardi Gras, here's another analyst 'confession'...

Daniel Hellberg

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