Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>DXY buy call at 108 targeted 111.50 wedge resistance. Friday's impulsive above 112 is more bullish in a blow off fashion with projection at 114.70.</li>
<li>Key momentum moves versus Sterling, MYR, CNH, KRW and the fresh INR breakout stand out. USD in Asia set to push higher in line with risk aversion.</li>
<li>The US 10yr yield RSI posture is warning of a top in yield in late September and then overlap into favored USD short set ups.</li>
</ul>

<ul>
<li>USD dip/rise into overshoot zone as the green back begins to feel out a topping zone. The dollar typically tops a few weeks ahead of and equity troughing cycle.</li>
<li>DXY met our 110.50-111 tactical top target where we reduced overdone USD longs and placed a short bet (AUD and SGD) for a dip/rally.</li>
<li>Expect USD splinters to appear in coming weeks as the DXY top near the 111.25 projection if we hold 107.50 now.</li>
</ul>

<ul>
<li>DXY 105 was the level to hold and 106.50 the resistance to clear for a dollar green light from our 105.50 buy in point with a near target of 110.50.</li>
<li>Euro and INR have been long USD picks and more recently bought back the USD/THB and NZD (short). USD/CNH has cleared breakout resistance.</li>
<li>Conviction: High. USD macro bull to (109.50 met) 110.50 and 111.25. 119 attracts in 2023.  USD vs EM FX showing signs of a big risk move. Watch USD/MYR above 4.50.</li>
</ul>

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Vermilion Research

Technical and Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>This is now the third Int'l Compass/third week in a row where we are discussing an increasing number of country indexes experiencing bullish 3.5-9-month downtrend reversals.</li>
<li>Importantly, all of the previously mentioned indexes are holding above their breakout levels (i.e., there has yet to be any failed breakouts).</li>
<li>Now, the U.S. dollar (DXY) is starting to show early signs of topping. We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process.</li>
</ul>

<ul>
<li>USD bull energy appears unabated amid yield dips and risk on phases. Red flags are brewing for USD breakout levels in EM and vulnerable FX in Asia.</li>
<li>The greenback will find a short term top ahead or into the Fed rate hike. A USD pullback in July/August if viewed as a fresh buying opportunity.</li>
<li>We see September/October (will start in August) and Q1 2023 as windows for USD power moves/breakouts that would lead equity risk (bear phases).</li>
</ul>

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and  major world currencies.  The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>. 

Dollar Index - DXY CURNCY

Description