Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) continue to hold above short-term support at their respective 20-day MAs (currently 5966 on SPX, $526.50 on QQQ, $208.75 on IWM)</li>
<li>As long as 20-day MA supports hold, our near-term bullish outlook that we have had since our 4/22/25 Compass remains intact.</li>
<li>We will need to see breakdowns below 20-day MA supports in order to expect any meaningful near-term downside.</li>
</ul>


The SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) continue to hold above short-term support at their respective 20-day MAs (currently 5966 on SPX, $526.50 on QQQ, $208.75 on IWM)
As long as 20-day MA supports hold, our near-term bullish outlook that we have had since our 4/22/25 Compass remains intact.
We will need to see breakdowns below 20-day MA supports in order to expect any meaningful near-term downside.


20-Day MA Supports Holding on SPX, QQQ, IWM; Bullish Outlook Intact

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The 90-day pause in tariffs between China and the US provides “tremendous” opportunities</li>
<li>The headline volatility allows investors to scale in and out of positions</li>
<li>Where we could be wrong in assuming the bear market is still on</li>
</ul>


The 90-day pause in tariffs between China and the US provides “tremendous” opportunities
The headline volatility allows investors to scale in and out of positions
Where we could be wrong in assuming the bear market is still on


Overview #26 -Is the Bear Market Over, and Are We Back to the Races?

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The Fed left its policy rate unchanged last week. Chairman Powell is concerned about high consumer inflationary expectations .  The Trump administration will play a role shaping interest rate expectations.</li>
<li>The legacy of US economic activity on global capital flows will not vanish overnight. Any replacement for the dollar must be convertible and able to fund borrowers in offshore markets.</li>
<li>Dollar depreciation against Asian currencies will produce economic headwinds due to the continued regional reliance on net exports. Trade finance is dominated by the dollar, even in regional transactions.</li>
</ul>


The Fed left its policy rate unchanged last week. Chairman Powell is concerned about high consumer inflationary expectations .  The Trump administration will play a role shaping interest rate expectations.
The legacy of US economic activity on global capital flows will not vanish overnight. Any replacement for the dollar must be convertible and able to fund borrowers in offshore markets.
Dollar depreciation against Asian currencies will produce economic headwinds due to the continued regional reliance on net exports. Trade finance is dominated by the dollar, even in regional transactions.


Fears of Dollar's Global Demise Overblown as Fed Avoids the Limelight

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Potential diversification of sovereign bond holdings away from U.S. treasuries and into other government markets, particularly in Euro area government bonds</li><li>FX hedging impacts on cross currency basis markets from hedging of dollar assets, with potential flow of reserve managers into European rates markets</li><li>Strategic bullish duration stance on German yields driven by expectations of ECB easing, lower inflation, easing of term premium, and positive carry in long duration exposures</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Potential diversification of sovereign bond holdings away from U.S. treasuries and into other government markets, particularly in Euro area government bondsFX hedging impacts on cross currency basis markets from hedging of dollar assets, with potential flow of reserve managers into European rates marketsStrategic bullish duration stance on German yields driven by expectations of ECB easing, lower inflation, easing of term premium, and positive carry in long duration exposuresThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global Rates: European rates market round-up

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook</li>
<li>Time to start unpacking your shorts for the summer season</li>
<li>Headlines should not distract from the big picture and provide  trading opportunities </li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook
Time to start unpacking your shorts for the summer season
Headlines should not distract from the big picture and provide  trading opportunities 


United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and  major world currencies.  The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>. 

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
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Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

20-Day MA Supports Holding on SPX, QQQ, IWM; Bullish Outlook Intact

20-Day MA Supports Holding on $SPX, $QQQ, and $IWM. As long as 20-day MA supports hold, our near-term bullish outlook that we have had since our 4...

Vermilion Research

Overview #26 -Is the Bear Market Over, and Are We Back to the Races?

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at whether the worst is over for markets

Rikki Malik

Fears of Dollar's Global Demise Overblown as Fed Avoids the Limelight

The Fed kept its policy rate unchanged, but markets expect lower rates in H2. Fears of the dollar's demise are vastly exaggerated. Alternatives for...

DeSaque Macro Research

Global Rates: European rates market round-up

Discussion on potential diversification of sovereign bond holdings, FX hedging impacts, Europe's benefit from de-dollarization, and strategic...

At Any Rate

Overview#24 – Exiting No Man’s Land

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. What are bond and currency markets telling us about the equity markets?

Rikki Malik

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)