Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Commodities

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Short-Term market impact of the recent attack against Iran vs the longer-term outlook</li>
<li>Unintended consequences throw out investment opportunities as portfolio degrossing occurs</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Short-Term market impact of the recent attack against Iran vs the longer-term outlook
Unintended consequences throw out investment opportunities as portfolio degrossing occurs


Overview #52 – Oil Shocks, De-Grossing, and Trend Breaks?

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Global Bond Yields move lower, while hard assets and cyclicals continue to outperform</li>
<li>Sanae Takaichi adds doves to the BoJ Board, aligning monetary policy with her goals</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Global Bond Yields move lower, while hard assets and cyclicals continue to outperform
Sanae Takaichi adds doves to the BoJ Board, aligning monetary policy with her goals


Overview #51 — Rates Roll Over, Cyclicals Take Control

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6780-6824 on SPX and $141.50 on ACWI-US continue to hold.</li>
<li>We are not fighting the bullish trend with all the MSCI global indexes (MSCI ACWI, EAFE, ACWI ex-US, and EM) hitting multi-year highs, but we are monitoring potential concerns--notably...</li>
<li>...global defensives Staples (KXI-US), Utilities (JXI-US), RealEstate (RWO-US) at 5+ month RS highs, U.S. dollar (DXY) holding above $96.40, crude oil prices bottoming, gasoline (UGA) breaking out from 3.5+year downtrend.</li>
</ul>


We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6780-6824 on SPX and $141.50 on ACWI-US continue to hold.
We are not fighting the bullish trend with all the MSCI global indexes (MSCI ACWI, EAFE, ACWI ex-US, and EM) hitting multi-year highs, but we are monitoring potential concerns--notably...
...global defensives Staples (KXI-US), Utilities (JXI-US), RealEstate (RWO-US) at 5+ month RS highs, U.S. dollar (DXY) holding above $96.40, crude oil prices bottoming, gasoline (UGA) breaking out from 3.5+year downtrend.


Defensives Leading; Concerns Persist. Actionable Themes: Staples, Utilities, Energy, Transports

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX, $610 on QQQ, and $257 on IWM (up from $245) continue to hold.</li>
<li>We continue to see deterioration in market dynamics. While we expect a consolidation/pullback period, the aforementioned support levels would need to break to confirm the pullback has begun.</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term outlook, and recommend buying pullbacks, as long as market dynamics remain constructive and the SPX is above 6480-6520 and IWM is above $245</li>
</ul>


We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX, $610 on QQQ, and $257 on IWM (up from $245) continue to hold.
We continue to see deterioration in market dynamics. While we expect a consolidation/pullback period, the aforementioned support levels would need to break to confirm the pullback has begun.
We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term outlook, and recommend buying pullbacks, as long as market dynamics remain constructive and the SPX is above 6480-6520 and IWM is above $245


Monitoring for a Pullback; Still Near-Term Bullish Above 6824 on SPX, $610 on QQQ, and $257 on IWM

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

<ul><li>Valuations were fair on last Friday, with the exception of the media-reported rate check by New York Fed for the Japanese yen which triggered a rise in the dollar and metals trade.</li><li>Despite potential consolidation and pullbacks ahead of payrolls, the macro backdrop favors pro-cyclical currencies and a weaker dollar.</li><li>Gold is believed to have a structural bullish trend, while silver may experience a sharp correction due to speculative overextension, and copper's rally is driven by Chinese flows and supply constraints.</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Valuations were fair on last Friday, with the exception of the media-reported rate check by New York Fed for the Japanese yen which triggered a rise in the dollar and metals trade.Despite potential consolidation and pullbacks ahead of payrolls, the macro backdrop favors pro-cyclical currencies and a weaker dollar.Gold is believed to have a structural bullish trend, while silver may experience a sharp correction due to speculative overextension, and copper's rally is driven by Chinese flows and supply constraints.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX and Commodities: The dollar, metals, APAC and vols

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and  major world currencies.  The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>. 

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Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

Overview #52 – Oil Shocks, De-Grossing, and Trend Breaks?

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the action in stock and commodity markets impacted by the...

Rikki Malik

Overview #51 — Rates Roll Over, Cyclicals Take Control

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the move down in bond yields and impact on our favourite...

Rikki Malik

Defensives Leading; Concerns Persist. Actionable Themes: Staples, Utilities, Energy, Transports

Defensives Leading; Concerns Persist. Actionable Themes: Staples, Utilities, Energy, and Transports. Remain Overweight Emerging Markets $EEM,...

Vermilion Research

Monitoring for a Pullback; Still Near-Term Bullish Above 6824 on SPX, $610 on QQQ, and $257 on IWM

Monitoring for a Pullback; Still Near-Term Bullish Above 6824 on $SPX, $610 on $QQQ, and $257 on $IWM. We expect a period of consolidation...

Vermilion Research

Global FX and Commodities: The dollar, metals, APAC and vols

Overall, valuations were mostly fair in the market last week, with some exceptions such as the rate check on the Japanese yen leading to a surge in...

At Any Rate

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)