Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the S&amp;P 500, which has remained in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week (11/19/25-11/25/25) when we went neutral.</li>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX and $141.50 on ACWI-US continue to hold. We are buying Energy and Consumer Staples</li>
<li>We are monitoring a few potential concerns--notably the 10-year Treasury yield holding above 4.20%, global Consumer Staples (KXI-US) near 4+ month RS highs, and crude oil prices bottoming.</li>
</ul>


We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the S&amp;P 500, which has remained in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week (11/19/25-11/25/25) when we went neutral.
We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX and $141.50 on ACWI-US continue to hold. We are buying Energy and Consumer Staples
We are monitoring a few potential concerns--notably the 10-year Treasury yield holding above 4.20%, global Consumer Staples (KXI-US) near 4+ month RS highs, and crude oil prices bottoming.


Emerging Markets Leading the Way; Buying Energy; Crude Oil Bottoming -- Buy

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Forecasting a decline of approximately 13% in net issuance of conventional government bonds in 2026, driven mostly by the US Treasury.</li><li>DMOs in the euro area, Japan, and the UK are reducing reliance on long-end issuance, with the US expected to follow suit.</li><li>US fiscal deficit forecasted to widen to 1.96 trillion in fiscal year 2026, leading to potential increases in treasury coupon auction sizes concentrated in the front end through intermediate sectors of the curve.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Forecasting a decline of approximately 13% in net issuance of conventional government bonds in 2026, driven mostly by the US Treasury.DMOs in the euro area, Japan, and the UK are reducing reliance on long-end issuance, with the US expected to follow suit.US fiscal deficit forecasted to widen to 1.96 trillion in fiscal year 2026, leading to potential increases in treasury coupon auction sizes concentrated in the front end through intermediate sectors of the curve.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global Rates:  2026 Global government issuance outlook

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

<ul>
<li>A review of 2025 performance for the major asset classes and sectors we follow</li>
<li>An outline summary of our current 2026 investment  ideas and themes</li>
<li>We make some changes in the allocations between commodity sectors</li>
</ul>


A review of 2025 performance for the major asset classes and sectors we follow
An outline summary of our current 2026 investment  ideas and themes
We make some changes in the allocations between commodity sectors


US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on S&amp;P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), which has remained in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week (11/19/25-11/25/25) when we were neutral.</li>
<li>Our intermediate-term bullish outlook has been in place since 5/14/25. We'll stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on QQQ hold.</li>
<li>Additionally, as discussed last week (12/2/25) we believe SPX, QQQ, and Russell 2000 (IWM) are in the midst of a new lockout rally, which is likely to run through early-2026</li>
</ul>


We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on S&amp;P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), which has remained in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week (11/19/25-11/25/25) when we were neutral.
Our intermediate-term bullish outlook has been in place since 5/14/25. We'll stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on QQQ hold.
Additionally, as discussed last week (12/2/25) we believe SPX, QQQ, and Russell 2000 (IWM) are in the midst of a new lockout rally, which is likely to run through early-2026


Rising Yields a Problem?; Russell 2000 Breakout; No Concern if 10Y Treasury Yield Is Below 4.2%

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day, Money of Mine

Money of Mine

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day

An ex-underground miner, an ex-investment banker, and an ex-equity research guy breaking down the mining news of the day. It's a bit of entertainment, information, and occasionally some alpha.

Commodities

<ul><li>Central banks have been buying gold since after the GFC to diversify from US Dollars, underpinning the market with tightness</li><li>Gold bull markets have been influenced by periods of conflict and economic stability, with central banks playing a significant role in influencing the price</li><li>The second gold bull market starting around 2000 saw the gold industry aggressively buying back their hedges, pushing the price up alongside central bank buying and market forces</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Central banks have been buying gold since after the GFC to diversify from US Dollars, underpinning the market with tightnessGold bull markets have been influenced by periods of conflict and economic stability, with central banks playing a significant role in influencing the priceThe second gold bull market starting around 2000 saw the gold industry aggressively buying back their hedges, pushing the price up alongside central bank buying and market forcesThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Why The Mining Boom is Just Beginning (Hedley Widdup)

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and major world currencies. The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

Emerging Markets Leading the Way; Buying Energy; Crude Oil Bottoming -- Buy

Emerging Markets Leading the Way; Buying Global Energy and Consumer Staples Names; Crude Oil Bottoming -- Buy. Monitoring a few potential concerns

Vermilion Research

Global Rates: 2026 Global government issuance outlook

Overall, there is a forecasted decline in net issuance of conventional government bonds in 2026, with various countries reducing reliance on long...

At Any Rate

Major 2026 Investment Themes

A review of 2025 performance and current 2026 investment ideas, including some changes in our commodity sector allocations.

Rikki Malik

Rising Yields a Problem?; Russell 2000 Breakout; No Concern if 10Y Treasury Yield Is Below 4.2%

Rising Yields a Problem?; Russell 2000 $IWM Breakout; No Concern if 10Y Treasury Yield is below 4.2%, and quite possibly 4.35%-4.50% if MOVE index...

Vermilion Research

Why The Mining Boom is Just Beginning (Hedley Widdup)

Central banks purchasing gold as a diversification strategy has historically influenced gold prices and tightens the market, contributing to the...

Money of Mine

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Emerging Markets Leading the Way; Buying Energy; Crude Oil Bottoming -- Buy

Emerging Markets Leading the Way; Buying Global Energy and Consumer Staples Names; Crude Oil Bottoming -- Buy. Monitoring a few potential concerns

Vermilion Research

Global Rates: 2026 Global government issuance outlook

Overall, there is a forecasted decline in net issuance of conventional government bonds in 2026, with various countries reducing reliance on long...

At Any Rate

Major 2026 Investment Themes

​A review of 2025 performance and current 2026 investment ideas, including some changes in our commodity sector allocations.

Rikki Malik

Rising Yields a Problem?; Russell 2000 Breakout; No Concern if 10Y Treasury Yield Is Below 4.2%

Rising Yields a Problem?; Russell 2000 $IWM Breakout; No Concern if 10Y Treasury Yield is below 4.2%, and quite possibly 4.35%-4.50% if MOVE index...

Vermilion Research

Why The Mining Boom is Just Beginning (Hedley Widdup)

Central banks purchasing gold as a diversification strategy has historically influenced gold prices and tightens the market, contributing to the...

Money of Mine

A review of 2025 performance and current 2026 investment ideas, including some changes in our commodity sector allocations.