Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund / Technical Analysis

Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP US)

<ul>
<li>Since late November we have been discussing our expectations for a pullback, while recommending shifting exposure to defensives (Staples, Utilities, Health Care) and/or taking profits.</li>
<li>The pullback is finally happening following breaks below 3910 support on the S&amp;P 500, $177.50 support on the Russell 2000 (IWM), and $279 support on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). </li>
<li>These levels are now resistance, while major resistance remains at 200-dayMAs/YTD downtrends. Stick with defensives/cash as we believe a test of the YTD lows on the aforementioned indexes is likely.</li>
</ul>


Since late November we have been discussing our expectations for a pullback, while recommending shifting exposure to defensives (Staples, Utilities, Health Care) and/or taking profits.
The pullback is finally happening following breaks below 3910 support on the S&amp;P 500, $177.50 support on the Russell 2000 (IWM), and $279 support on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). 
These levels are now resistance, while major resistance remains at 200-dayMAs/YTD downtrends. Stick with defensives/cash as we believe a test of the YTD lows on the aforementioned indexes is likely.


Upgrading Staples and Health Care to Overweight; Stay Defensive, Expecting Test of YTD Lows on SPX

<ul>
<li>Charts have not changed much from the prior week, with there actually being some deterioration within banks (KRE, KBE). </li>
<li>The $SPX has been unable to sustain a breakout above its 200-day MA/YTD downtrend, the $IWM remains below $190 resistance, and the DJIA could not sustain a breakout above 34,280</li>
<li>As long as these indexes are below these levels, we continue to see this as a good time to shift to more defensive areas and/or take profits.</li>
</ul>


Charts have not changed much from the prior week, with there actually being some deterioration within banks (KRE, KBE). 
The $SPX has been unable to sustain a breakout above its 200-day MA/YTD downtrend, the $IWM remains below $190 resistance, and the DJIA could not sustain a breakout above 34,280
As long as these indexes are below these levels, we continue to see this as a good time to shift to more defensive areas and/or take profits.


Failed Breakouts, Banks Crumbling -- Get Defensive; Buy Ideas Within Consumer Staples

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

<ul>
<li>Alibaba's "Carbon Neutrality Plan" is highly ambitious, scientifically rigorous, and thoughtfully governed. In today's greenwashed world, Alibaba's plan sets a higher standard.</li>
<li>The decarbonisation plan is a silver lining on an otherwise dark Alibaba cloud – a silver lining, not a silver bullet. It wonn't fix Alibaba's problems, with one possible exception...</li>
<li>Alibaba's plan is so ambitious it could facilitate China's national net-zero targets. China seeing Alibaba as propaganda-gold or private-sector poster child is a possible catalyst. </li>
</ul>


Alibaba's "Carbon Neutrality Plan" is highly ambitious, scientifically rigorous, and thoughtfully governed. In today's greenwashed world, Alibaba's plan sets a higher standard.
The decarbonisation plan is a silver lining on an otherwise dark Alibaba cloud – a silver lining, not a silver bullet. It wonn't fix Alibaba's problems, with one possible exception...
Alibaba's plan is so ambitious it could facilitate China's national net-zero targets. China seeing Alibaba as propaganda-gold or private-sector poster child is a possible catalyst. 


Alibaba Group's New Carbon Neutrality Plan Is a Silver Lining, But Not a Silver Bullet

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Supply shocks from the Strait closure sharply raised fuel costs, disproportionately hurting unhedged U.S. airlines and driving a steep decline in JETS.</li>
<li>XLP fell despite its defensive nature, as rising input costs compressed margins and investors rotated out of staples to fund energy exposure.</li>
<li>XLB declined on supply chain disruptions and recession fears, but easing input costs and improving growth expectations position it for a strong, leverage-driven recovery.</li>
</ul>


Supply shocks from the Strait closure sharply raised fuel costs, disproportionately hurting unhedged U.S. airlines and driving a steep decline in JETS.
XLP fell despite its defensive nature, as rising input costs compressed margins and investors rotated out of staples to fund energy exposure.
XLB declined on supply chain disruptions and recession fears, but easing input costs and improving growth expectations position it for a strong, leverage-driven recovery.


Pricing the Strait: Positioning for a Potential Post-Conflict Market

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Privi Speciality Chemicals / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Privi Speciality Chemicals, an aroma chemicals manufacturer, continues expanding its capacities and strengthening its product portfolio to support future growth and deepen its presence in global markets.</li>
<li>Privi operates a structurally strong business with backward integration, deep customer relationships, and proprietary processes, making it difficult for competitors to replicate its scale and margins.</li>
<li>Growth visibility remains strong with INR 5,000 crore revenue and INR 1,000 crore EBITDA targets, driven by capex and Givaudan JV, valuation depends on execution and scalability.</li>
</ul>


Privi Speciality Chemicals, an aroma chemicals manufacturer, continues expanding its capacities and strengthening its product portfolio to support future growth and deepen its presence in global markets.
Privi operates a structurally strong business with backward integration, deep customer relationships, and proprietary processes, making it difficult for competitors to replicate its scale and margins.
Growth visibility remains strong with INR 5,000 crore revenue and INR 1,000 crore EBITDA targets, driven by capex and Givaudan JV, valuation depends on execution and scalability.


Privi Speciality Chemicals: A Differentiated Player in Aroma Chemicals

United Kingdom

Unilever is a British multinational consumer goods company that manufactures and sells a wide range of products including foods, condiments, home care, and personal care items. Its portfolio includes approximately 400 brands, with key segments in Beauty & Wellbeing, Personal Care, Home Care, and Nutrition. The company is headquartered in London, England, and was founded in 1929 through the merger of Margarine Unie and Lever Brothers.

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Unilever (UL US)

Upgrading Staples and Health Care to Overweight; Stay Defensive, Expecting Test of YTD Lows on SPX

Since late November we have discussed our expectations for a pullback, recommending shifting exposure to defensives $XLP $XLV $XLU and/or taking...

Vermilion Research

Failed Breakouts, Banks Crumbling -- Get Defensive; Buy Ideas Within Consumer Staples

$SPX unable to sustain a breakout above 200-day MA/YTD downtrend, $IWM remains below $190 resistance, $DJI could not sustain a breakout above...

Vermilion Research

Alibaba Group's New Carbon Neutrality Plan Is a Silver Lining, But Not a Silver Bullet

Alibaba's decarbonisation plan is a silver lining on an otherwise dark Alibaba cloud. But it's not a silver bullet; it won't fix Alibaba's problems...

Kyle Rudden

Pricing the Strait: Positioning for a Potential Post-Conflict Market

Supply shocks from the Strait closure hit US airlines hard, driving JETS down. XLP and XLB also suffered from rising input costs and disruptions,...

Mint Finance

Privi Speciality Chemicals: A Differentiated Player in Aroma Chemicals

Privi Speciality Chemicals, an aroma chemicals manufacturer, strengthens its capacities and product portfolio to deepen global market presence.

Sudarshan Bhandari

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Upgrading Staples and Health Care to Overweight; Stay Defensive, Expecting Test of YTD Lows on SPX

Since late November we have discussed our expectations for a pullback, recommending shifting exposure to defensives $XLP $XLV $XLU and/or taking...

Vermilion Research

Failed Breakouts, Banks Crumbling -- Get Defensive; Buy Ideas Within Consumer Staples

$SPX unable to sustain a breakout above 200-day MA/YTD downtrend, $IWM remains below $190 resistance, $DJI could not sustain a breakout above...

Vermilion Research

Alibaba Group's New Carbon Neutrality Plan Is a Silver Lining, But Not a Silver Bullet

Alibaba's decarbonisation plan is a silver lining on an otherwise dark Alibaba cloud. But it's not a silver bullet; it won't fix Alibaba's problems...

Kyle Rudden

Pricing the Strait: Positioning for a Potential Post-Conflict Market

​Supply shocks from the Strait closure hit US airlines hard, driving JETS down. XLP and XLB also suffered from rising input costs and disruptions,...

Mint Finance

Privi Speciality Chemicals: A Differentiated Player in Aroma Chemicals

​Privi Speciality Chemicals, an aroma chemicals manufacturer, strengthens its capacities and product portfolio to deepen global market presence.

Sudarshan Bhandari

Supply shocks from the Strait closure hit US airlines hard, driving JETS down. XLP and XLB also suffered from rising input costs and disruptions,...

Privi Speciality Chemicals, an aroma chemicals manufacturer, strengthens its capacities and product portfolio to deepen global market presence.