Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>With a strong 20A/18A team, Intel might take some CPU shares back from AMD to affect TSMC but reduce geopolitical tensions from the US after Intel returning to the best. </li>
<li>SMIC can use DUV to do 3nm but different from others' because Moore's law is no longer using circuit line width but to use performance, power, density to determine 3nm. </li>
<li>New fabless industry opportunities are emerging in middle east countries, and south east Asia countries like Vietnam. Despite high cost issues, global expansion will help TSMC to attract global talents. </li>
</ul>


With a strong 20A/18A team, Intel might take some CPU shares back from AMD to affect TSMC but reduce geopolitical tensions from the US after Intel returning to the best. 
SMIC can use DUV to do 3nm but different from others' because Moore's law is no longer using circuit line width but to use performance, power, density to determine 3nm. 
New fabless industry opportunities are emerging in middle east countries, and south east Asia countries like Vietnam. Despite high cost issues, global expansion will help TSMC to attract global talents. 


A R&D Director Dr. Young Was at TSMC, SMIC, and Intel Foundry Shared Views on 3-1nm Competitions

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC's manufacturing value only accounts for 1/4 of H100 HGX bill of materials but HBM3 accounts for more than half;</li>
<li>ABF substrate, SXM5 module, UBB and CCL vendors should be benefited, especially for Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) on ABF substrate/OAM and Elite Material (2383 TT) on OAM/UBB CCL;</li>
<li>Nvidia AI GPU likely doubling each year in next two years; Our estimates on Nvidia 2025 AI GPU EPS contribution are exceeding Bloomberg consensus earnings estimates, suggesting room to raise.</li>
</ul>


TSMC's manufacturing value only accounts for 1/4 of H100 HGX bill of materials but HBM3 accounts for more than half;
ABF substrate, SXM5 module, UBB and CCL vendors should be benefited, especially for Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) on ABF substrate/OAM and Elite Material (2383 TT) on OAM/UBB CCL;
Nvidia AI GPU likely doubling each year in next two years; Our estimates on Nvidia 2025 AI GPU EPS contribution are exceeding Bloomberg consensus earnings estimates, suggesting room to raise.


BOM Cost and CoWoS Demand Analysis on Nvidia AI GPU HGX for 2023-2025, Room to Raise Estimates

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of May 10th which has an aggregated holding worth USD4,060.0bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD2,948mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight foreign changes in TSMC, Quanta Computer, Yang Ming Marine, Tripod Tech, Lite-On Tech, Chailease, Lotus, Novatek, Alchip Tech, Asia Vital.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of May 10th which has an aggregated holding worth USD4,060.0bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD2,948mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight foreign changes in TSMC, Quanta Computer, Yang Ming Marine, Tripod Tech, Lite-On Tech, Chailease, Lotus, Novatek, Alchip Tech, Asia Vital.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (May 10th): TSMC, Quanta Computer, Yang Ming Marine, Tripod Tech

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of May 3rd which has an aggregated short interest worth USD86.1bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Asia Vital, Mediatek, Chung-Hsin.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of May 3rd which has an aggregated short interest worth USD86.1bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Asia Vital, Mediatek, Chung-Hsin.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (May 3rd): Asia Vital, Mediatek, Chung-Hsin

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of May 3rd which has an aggregated holding worth USD3,897.7bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD3,975mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight foreign changes in TSMC, Hon Hai, Delta Elec, Yageo, Quanta Computer, Alchip Tech, King Yuan Elec, Wt, Accton Tech, Powertech.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of May 3rd which has an aggregated holding worth USD3,897.7bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD3,975mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight foreign changes in TSMC, Hon Hai, Delta Elec, Yageo, Quanta Computer, Alchip Tech, King Yuan Elec, Wt, Accton Tech, Powertech.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (May 3rd): TSMC, Hon Hai, Delta Elec, Yageo, Quanta Computer, Alchip

Taiwan

Unimicron Technology Corp. manufactures and markets double-sided and multi-layer printed circuit boards.  The Company also provides integrated circuits (IC) burning and testing services.

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Unimicron Technology (3037 TT)

A R&D Director Dr. Young Was at TSMC, SMIC, and Intel Foundry Shared Views on 3-1nm Competitions

A R&D Director Dr. Young Was at TSMC, SMIC, and Intel Foundry Shared Views on 3-1nm Competitions. Intel might ramp up its 20A/18A ahead of TSMC 2nm...

Andrew Lu

BOM Cost and CoWoS Demand Analysis on Nvidia AI GPU HGX for 2023-2025, Room to Raise Estimates

After conducting our in depth bill of materials and CoWoS demand analysis on Nvidia H100 AI GPU HGX for 2023-2025, we conclude Bloomberg estimates...

Andrew Lu

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (May 10th): TSMC, Quanta Computer, Yang Ming Marine, Tripod Tech

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, Quanta Computer, Yang Ming Marine, Tripod...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (May 3rd): Asia Vital, Mediatek, Chung-Hsin

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Asia Vital, Mediatek, Chung-Hsin.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (May 3rd): TSMC, Hon Hai, Delta Elec, Yageo, Quanta Computer, Alchip

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, Hon Hai, Delta Elec, Yageo, Quanta...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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