Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We had a near-term bullish outlook on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) from 4/22/25 to 11/18/25.</li>
<li>After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 Compass, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $135.70 on ACWI-US continue to hold. </li>
</ul>


We had a near-term bullish outlook on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) from 4/22/25 to 11/18/25.
After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 Compass, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $135.70 on ACWI-US continue to hold. 


"Lockout Rally" Underway; Downgrading China to Market Weight; Weak U.S. Dollar Is Risk-On Signal

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Sep 24th. The aggregated holding was USD2,357.7bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD3,743mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in MediaTek, Unimicron Technology, Kinsus Interconnect Technology, ASE Industrial, PharmaEssentia.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Sep 24th. The aggregated holding was USD2,357.7bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD3,743mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in MediaTek, Unimicron Technology, Kinsus Interconnect Technology, ASE Industrial, PharmaEssentia.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Sep 24th): MediaTek, Unimicron Technology, ASE Industrial

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Shenzhen Kinwong Electronic / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-kinwong-electronic-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:58633:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen Kinwong Electronic (3228 HK)</a> is a global printed circuit board (PCB) manufacturer, seeking to raise up to US$653 million at a maximum offer price of HK$69.88 per share.</li>
<li>I discussed the H Share listing in <em><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kinwong-electronic-h-share-listing-3228-hk-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:272060" rel="noopener">Kinwong Electronic H Share Listing (3228 HK): The Investment Case</a></strong></em>. </li>
<li>In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. The AH discount is light compared to peer multiples. Given my concerns about fundamentals, I would avoid the listing. </li>
</ul>



Shenzhen Kinwong Electronic (3228 HK) is a global printed circuit board (PCB) manufacturer, seeking to raise up to US$653 million at a maximum offer price of HK$69.88 per share.
I discussed the H Share listing in Kinwong Electronic H Share Listing (3228 HK): The Investment Case. 
In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. The AH discount is light compared to peer multiples. Given my concerns about fundamentals, I would avoid the listing. 


Kinwong Electronic H Share Listing (3228 HK): Valuation Insights

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>Kinwong Electronic launched IPO to raise HK$ 5.1B. Company is a PCB manufacturer providing connectivity infrastructure for global customers in automotive electronics, telecommunication &amp; data, smart devices, industrial control etc.</li>
<li>Kinwong Electronic intends to use the proceeds for research and development, expanding production capacity, repay borrowings, working caital and general corporate purpose.</li>
<li>Given the overall industry dynamics and company’s focus on cost optimization, price competitiveness and high margin products we can expect a sustained incremental demand scenario in near to medium term.</li>
</ul>


Kinwong Electronic launched IPO to raise HK$ 5.1B. Company is a PCB manufacturer providing connectivity infrastructure for global customers in automotive electronics, telecommunication &amp; data, smart devices, industrial control etc.
Kinwong Electronic intends to use the proceeds for research and development, expanding production capacity, repay borrowings, working caital and general corporate purpose.
Given the overall industry dynamics and company’s focus on cost optimization, price competitiveness and high margin products we can expect a sustained incremental demand scenario in near to medium term.


Shenzhen Kinwong Electronic IPO: Diversified Circuitry Coming Into Play

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-kinwong-electronic-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:58633:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen Kinwong Electronic (3228 HK)</a>'s IPO is seeking HK$4.96bn, though priced at a steep 45.9% discount to the A-share, the absolute PER is not cheap.</li>
<li>The key strengths lie in its comprehensive product portfolio, strong market reputation, and strategic partnerships with global customers. </li>
<li>We value it at 32.7x PER for FY26, in line with the global peer average, meaning a price of HK$80.15. But this is not without risks, given potential earnings disappointment.</li>
</ul>



Shenzhen Kinwong Electronic (3228 HK)'s IPO is seeking HK$4.96bn, though priced at a steep 45.9% discount to the A-share, the absolute PER is not cheap.
The key strengths lie in its comprehensive product portfolio, strong market reputation, and strategic partnerships with global customers. 
We value it at 32.7x PER for FY26, in line with the global peer average, meaning a price of HK$80.15. But this is not without risks, given potential earnings disappointment.


Shenzhen Kinwong (3228 HK) IPO: Marginally Attractive

Taiwan

Unimicron Technology Corp. manufactures and markets double-sided and multi-layer printed circuit boards.  The Company also provides integrated circuits (IC) burning and testing services.

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Unimicron Technology (3037 TT)

"Lockout Rally" Underway; Downgrading China to Market Weight; Weak U.S. Dollar Is Risk-On Signal

"Lockout Rally" Underway $ACWI; Downgrading China $MCHI $FXI to Market Weight; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Providing Significant Risk-On Signal. Remain...

Vermilion Research

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Sep 24th): MediaTek, Unimicron Technology, ASE Industrial

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in MediaTek, Unimicron Technology, Kinsus...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Shenzhen Kinwong Electronic IPO: Diversified Circuitry Coming Into Play

Kinwong Electronic launched IPO to raise HK$ 5.1B for R&D, expanding production etc. Focus on cost optimization, price competitiveness and high...

Tina Banerjee

Shenzhen Kinwong (3228 HK) IPO: Marginally Attractive

Shenzhen Kinwong's IPO is seeking HK$4.96bn, though priced at a steep 45.9% discount to the A-share, the absolute PER is not cheap. We are also...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

"Lockout Rally" Underway; Downgrading China to Market Weight; Weak U.S. Dollar Is Risk-On Signal

"Lockout Rally" Underway $ACWI; Downgrading China $MCHI $FXI to Market Weight; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Providing Significant Risk-On Signal. Remain...

Vermilion Research

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Sep 24th): MediaTek, Unimicron Technology, ASE Industrial

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in MediaTek, Unimicron Technology, Kinsus...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Kinwong Electronic H Share Listing (3228 HK): Valuation Insights

Kinwong Electronic is a global printed circuit board (PCB) manufacturer seeking to raise up to US$653 million. In this note, I present my forecasts...

Arun George

Shenzhen Kinwong Electronic IPO: Diversified Circuitry Coming Into Play

Kinwong Electronic launched IPO to raise HK$ 5.1B for R&D, expanding production etc. Focus on cost optimization, price competitiveness and high...

Tina Banerjee

Shenzhen Kinwong (3228 HK) IPO: Marginally Attractive

Shenzhen Kinwong's IPO is seeking HK$4.96bn, though priced at a steep 45.9% discount to the A-share, the absolute PER is not cheap. We are also...

Osbert Tang, CFA