Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Equity Capital Markets

To match service levels offered by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/446" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:446:1">JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)</a> and leading express carrier <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4128" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4128:1">S.F. Holding Co Ltd (002352 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/787" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1">Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA US)</a> and its logistics partners are making a belated push to invest in first- and last-mile parcel delivery capacity. BABA and its partners have so far avoided making the large investments needed to control 100% of their parcel delivery networks. Instead of direct ownership of first- and last-mile assets, BABA has tried to rely upon the 'transparency' provided by its technologically sophisticated logistics subsidiary, CaiNiao Network (CN). But five years after BABA set up CN, JD.com's continued lead in logistics quality and logistics speed -- confirmed in private surveys of Chinese consumers -- seems to have convinced BABA and its partners that they must finally take the plunge.Battle lines in this coming logistics war have been drawn over the past year or so. JD.com established JD Logistics in April 2017, and the private company recently raised US$2.5 bn at a valuation of US$13.4 bn. SF Express -- China's largest express carrier by revenue -- already offers first- and last-mile delivery, and has shown a willingness to butt heads with BABA. The five smaller express companies aligned with BABA have recently announced moves that will bring them even closer to the e-commerce giant; there are also indications these express companies are stepping up their own first- and last-mile investments at the behest of BABA.For the five carriers aligned with BABA, a belated push into ownership of first- and last-mile service will require an enormous increase in capital expenditures. The five carriers had combined capex of about 8.3 bn RMB in 2017; we estimate the push to acquire control of first- and last-mile capacity could require additional annual capex of 25 bn RMB or more over the next few years (BABA itself had CapEx of 29.8 bn RMB in its latest fiscal year). Such a dramatic increase in capital spending -- assuming it is mainly shouldered by the express companies -- will require significant, dilutive fundraising by these five express carriers over the next few years; we also anticipate initial returns on these investments will be very low.Alternatively, if it is BABA's private logistics subsidiary CN that does the heavy lifting, this would likely bring forward the timing of that company's IPO (it was valued at US$20 bn in a September 2017 funding round). We do not believe the expansion of first- and last-mile capacity is part of CN's projected total CapEx of 100 bn RMB between 2017-2021. The ultimate beneficiary of this costly expansion of express networks? Alibaba, of course. As a result of the expected push into first- and last-mile delivery, the e-commerce giant will likely end up with deeper reach and faster, more reliable delivery service. These improvements should allow it to retain its position as China's pre-eminent e-commerce company. The apparent asymmetry of expected capex and expected benefits from first- and last-mile investments -- express companies invest, BABA reaps the benefits -- suggests a pair trade: Long BABA against Short positions in China's express companies.

To match service levels offered by JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US) and leading express carrier S.F. Holding Co Ltd (002352 CH), Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA US) and its logistics partners are making a belated push to invest in first- and last-mile parcel delivery capacity. BABA and its partners have so far avoided making the large investments needed to control 100% of their parcel delivery networks. Instead of direct ownership of first- and last-mile assets, BABA has tried to rely upon the 'transparency' provided by its technologically sophisticated logistics subsidiary, CaiNiao Network (CN). But five years after BABA set up CN, JD.com's continued lead in logistics quality and logistics speed -- confirmed in private surveys of Chinese consumers -- seems to have convinced BABA and its partners that they must finally take the plunge.Battle lines in this coming logistics war have been drawn over the past year or so. JD.com established JD Logistics in April 2017, and the private company recently raised US$2.5 bn at a valuation of US$13.4 bn. SF Express -- China's largest express carrier by revenue -- already offers first- and last-mile delivery, and has shown a willingness to butt heads with BABA. The five smaller express companies aligned with BABA have recently announced moves that will bring them even closer to the e-commerce giant; there are also indications these express companies are stepping up their own first- and last-mile investments at the behest of BABA.For the five carriers aligned with BABA, a belated push into ownership of first- and last-mile service will require an enormous increase in capital expenditures. The five carriers had combined capex of about 8.3 bn RMB in 2017; we estimate the push to acquire control of first- and last-mile capacity could require additional annual capex of 25 bn RMB or more over the next few years (BABA itself had CapEx of 29.8 bn RMB in its latest fiscal year). Such a dramatic increase in capital spending -- assuming it is mainly shouldered by the express companies -- will require significant, dilutive fundraising by these five express carriers over the next few years; we also anticipate initial returns on these investments will be very low.Alternatively, if it is BABA's private logistics subsidiary CN that does the heavy lifting, this would likely bring forward the timing of that company's IPO (it was valued at US$20 bn in a September 2017 funding round). We do not believe the expansion of first- and last-mile capacity is part of CN's projected total CapEx of 100 bn RMB between 2017-2021. The ultimate beneficiary of this costly expansion of express networks? Alibaba, of course. As a result of the expected push into first- and last-mile delivery, the e-commerce giant will likely end up with deeper reach and faster, more reliable delivery service. These improvements should allow it to retain its position as China's pre-eminent e-commerce company. The apparent asymmetry of expected capex and expected benefits from first- and last-mile investments -- express companies invest, BABA reaps the benefits -- suggests a pair trade: Long BABA against Short positions in China's express companies.

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network / Equity Bottom-Up

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network (1437124D HK)

<ul>
<li>Alibaba logistics arm CaiNiao's revenue growth slowed in the June quarter</li>
<li>Our main takeaway is that Chinese X-border eComm continues to slow</li>
<li>We believe all of the large X-border eComm platforms may be affected</li>
</ul>


Alibaba logistics arm CaiNiao's revenue growth slowed in the June quarter
Our main takeaway is that Chinese X-border eComm continues to slow
We believe all of the large X-border eComm platforms may be affected


CaiNiao Q1FY Results: Most Interesting Read-Through Is Dramatic Slowdown in X-Border Activity

<ul>
<li>Three potentially large e-comm logistics IPOs are now in-process in Hong Kong</li>
<li>We compare the three 'by the numbers', then examine their strengths and weaknesses</li>
<li>We conclude by providing a matrix that may help investors decide where to allocate time</li>
</ul>


Three potentially large e-comm logistics IPOs are now in-process in Hong Kong
We compare the three 'by the numbers', then examine their strengths and weaknesses
We conclude by providing a matrix that may help investors decide where to allocate time


Which Hong Kong E-Comm Logistics IPO Is Right for You? We Compare SF Holding, J&T, and CaiNiao

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>J&amp;T Global Express, a global logistics provider, raised about US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO in Oct 2023. Its pre-IPO investors will be released from its IPO linked lockup soon.</li>
<li>As per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S), the firm is the leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia, with a 25.4% market share as per 2023 parcel volume.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>


J&amp;T Global Express, a global logistics provider, raised about US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO in Oct 2023. Its pre-IPO investors will be released from its IPO linked lockup soon.
As per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S), the firm is the leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia, with a 25.4% market share as per 2023 parcel volume.
In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.


J&T Global Express IPO Lock-Up Expiry - Tiny Float with 87%+ Stake Lockup Release Worth >US$8.8bn

J&T Global Express / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we examine <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1936374D CH)</a>'s operation in SE Asia, where it's the region's dominant player, with market share of 22.5% by volume </li>
<li>We profile SE Asian demand and supply and compare these to the development of China's express industry, acknowledging the key role <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US)</a> has played there</li>
<li>We also present a framework for estimating the value of J&amp;T's SE Asian operation by identifying the most appropriate comps and EV valuation multiples</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we examine J&amp;T Global Express (1936374D CH)'s operation in SE Asia, where it's the region's dominant player, with market share of 22.5% by volume 
We profile SE Asian demand and supply and compare these to the development of China's express industry, acknowledging the key role Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) has played there
We also present a framework for estimating the value of J&amp;T's SE Asian operation by identifying the most appropriate comps and EV valuation multiples


J&T Global Express Pre-IPO, Part 2: SE Asia Operation | Demand, Supply Profiles | Valuation Approach

United States

United Parcel Service, Inc.(UPS) delivers packages and documents throughout the United States and in other countries and territories.  The Company also provides global supply chain services and less-than-truckload transportation, primarily in the U.S. UPS's business consists of integrated air and ground pick-up and delivery network

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United Parcel Service Cl B (UPS US)

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

As China's largest smart locker company Hive Box prepares for a potential IPO in Hong Kong, we are resurfacing this old insight to help readers...

Daniel Hellberg

CaiNiao Q1FY Results: Most Interesting Read-Through Is Dramatic Slowdown in X-Border Activity

Given slower June quarter revenue growth at Alibaba's logistics arm CaiNiao and at the segment containing AliExpress, it's hard not to conclude...

Tracking Traffic

Which Hong Kong E-Comm Logistics IPO Is Right for You? We Compare SF Holding, J&T, and CaiNiao

On Sunday June 2, SF Holding announced via a notice at the Shenzhen Stock Exchange that it plans to sell up to 625 mn new shares in a secondary...

Tracking Traffic

J&T Global Express IPO Lock-Up Expiry - Tiny Float with 87%+ Stake Lockup Release Worth >US$8.8bn

J&T Global Express' IPO linked lockup expired over the weeked. The stock has been correcting over the past few weeks, especially with the CCASS...

Sumeet Singh

J&T Global Express Pre-IPO, Part 2: SE Asia Operation | Demand, Supply Profiles | Valuation Approach

We're pulling this insight out of the archives in light of J&T's updated filing and its decision to begin pushing forward with its IPO in Hong Kong...

Tracking Traffic

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