Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>China-Listed express firms reported softer volume growth in August (vs July and Q2)</li>
<li>SF Holding and Yunda Holding continued to lose share in August; STO Express gained</li>
<li>We believe softer volume growth in August could indicate weak online retail activity</li>
</ul>


China-Listed express firms reported softer volume growth in August (vs July and Q2)
SF Holding and Yunda Holding continued to lose share in August; STO Express gained
We believe softer volume growth in August could indicate weak online retail activity


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | August Growth Slowed Vs July, Q2 | Suggests Softer Online Retail

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Airline &amp; airport air cargo data shows moderating demand, Asia &gt; N America</li>
<li>No signs of supply tightness in the system; in fact, reported yields are falling
</li>
<li>Most indicators show that demand is mediocre, space plentiful, pricing weak</li>
</ul>


Airline &amp; airport air cargo data shows moderating demand, Asia &gt; N America
No signs of supply tightness in the system; in fact, reported yields are falling

Most indicators show that demand is mediocre, space plentiful, pricing weak


Monthly Air Cargo Tracker | May-July Data Shows Soft Demand, Ample Capacity, Lower Yields

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>We believe the price floor of RMB1.4/parcel shipment set by the Guangdong’s authority is a forceful move to put the brakes on the price war in the express delivery sector.</li><li>Most importantly, we believe Guangdong, being the largest province in terms of both parcel volume and revenue, will set an example of “anti-involution”, which will potentially trigger more provinces to follow suit.</li><li>We reiterate our view that this round of “anti-involution” campaign will be similar to the one in 2021, which will boost parcel price hike and serve as a positive catalyst over the coming 3-6 months. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We believe the price floor of RMB1.4/parcel shipment set by the Guangdong’s authority is a forceful move to put the brakes on the price war in the express delivery sector.Most importantly, we believe Guangdong, being the largest province in terms of both parcel volume and revenue, will set an example of “anti-involution”, which will potentially trigger more provinces to follow suit.We reiterate our view that this round of “anti-involution” campaign will be similar to the one in 2021, which will boost parcel price hike and serve as a positive catalyst over the coming 3-6 months. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Logistics - Price Floor in Guangdong Likely Set an Example for Other Regions...

<ul>
<li>In H126 J&amp;T Global reported strong top-line growth of almost 40% Y/Y vs H125</li>
<li>Growth was broad-based, and core adj EBITDA margin also showed solid Y/Y improvement</li>
<li>Overall, a nice set of numbers from J&amp;T Global in H1, but stock isn't cheap here</li>
</ul>


In H126 J&amp;T Global reported strong top-line growth of almost 40% Y/Y vs H125
Growth was broad-based, and core adj EBITDA margin also showed solid Y/Y improvement
Overall, a nice set of numbers from J&amp;T Global in H1, but stock isn't cheap here


J&T Global Express H126 Results: Firing on All Cylinders (But Not Cheap)

Equity Capital Markets

SHEIN Global Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>SHEIN's new IPO filing in Hong Kong shows the company recording a Net Loss in Q126</li>
<li>A sharp increase in Q126 fulfilment costs helps to explain the period's weaker profitability</li>
<li>SHEIN's ability to rein in unit fulfilment costs should be a key driver of long-term performance</li>
</ul>


SHEIN's new IPO filing in Hong Kong shows the company recording a Net Loss in Q126
A sharp increase in Q126 fulfilment costs helps to explain the period's weaker profitability
SHEIN's ability to rein in unit fulfilment costs should be a key driver of long-term performance


SHEIN IPO in Hong Kong: Quick P&L Review and Why Managing Unit Fulfilment Costs Matters So Much

United States

United Parcel Service, Inc.(UPS) delivers packages and documents throughout the United States and in other countries and territories.  The Company also provides global supply chain services and less-than-truckload transportation, primarily in the U.S. UPS's business consists of integrated air and ground pick-up and delivery network

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United Parcel Service Cl B (UPS US)

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | August Growth Slowed Vs July, Q2 | Suggests Softer Online Retail

Chinese domestic express parcel volume growth slowed in August (vs July and Q2), suggesting softer online retail activity. For stronger growth in...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Air Cargo Tracker | May-July Data Shows Soft Demand, Ample Capacity, Lower Yields

A look at July yields, load factors, and tonnage growth in July suggests an Asian air cargo market that has plenty of supply to meet moderating...

Tracking Traffic

Logistics - Price Floor in Guangdong Likely Set an Example for Other Regions...

We believe the price floor of RMB1.4/parcel shipment set by the Guangdong’s authority is a forceful move to put the brakes on the price war in the...

CMB International

J&T Global Express H126 Results: Firing on All Cylinders (But Not Cheap)

Strong growth from J&T Global in H126, with overall revenue up 40% and adj EBITDA up an impressive 68%. But shares appear to be trading on 20x FY26...

Tracking Traffic

SHEIN IPO in Hong Kong: Quick P&L Review and Why Managing Unit Fulfilment Costs Matters So Much

In its first day of trading on September 1, SHEIN's shares closed down 0.1% in Hong Kong after initially falling close to 10%. We're now re...

Tracking Traffic

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