Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>H126 revenue up 6%, but EBITDA margin softened by around 50 bps versus H125</li>
<li>We believe higher fuel costs and a change in revenue mix explain margin compression</li>
<li>SF Hldg: cheap, but absent a potential boost from lower fuel, near-term seems unexciting</li>
</ul>


H126 revenue up 6%, but EBITDA margin softened by around 50 bps versus H125
We believe higher fuel costs and a change in revenue mix explain margin compression
SF Hldg: cheap, but absent a potential boost from lower fuel, near-term seems unexciting


SF Holding H126: Revenue up 6% Y/Y, but EBITDA Margin Down on Rising Fuel Costs, Changing Mix

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The scale of fraud in a new US federal criminal complaint – US$60M of fake postage – mirrors the recent dramatic growth of Chinese e-commerce platforms that target US consumers</li>
<li>The case also highlights the importance of securing cheap last-mile US distribution for the Chinese e-commerce platforms selling inexpensive goods directly to US consumers</li>
<li>It’s unclear which of the Chinese platforms benefited from the scheme, but the incident should refocus investors’ attention on logistics as a critical piece of their business models </li>
</ul>


The scale of fraud in a new US federal criminal complaint – US$60M of fake postage – mirrors the recent dramatic growth of Chinese e-commerce platforms that target US consumers
The case also highlights the importance of securing cheap last-mile US distribution for the Chinese e-commerce platforms selling inexpensive goods directly to US consumers
It’s unclear which of the Chinese platforms benefited from the scheme, but the incident should refocus investors’ attention on logistics as a critical piece of their business models 


The Curious Case of $60M of Bogus US Postage or 'How Can They Can Make Money Exporting $5 Shirts?!'

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

<ul><li>We expect Freightways (FRW) to report a strong FY26 result on 17 August 2026, driven by Express Package despite higher fuel costs.</li><li>We forecast strong growth in Express Package profits, supported by the first-time consolidation (five months) of newly acquired VTFE, strong volume growth at Allied Express, a strong AUD, domestic parcel price increases driving gross margin expansion, and positive volume development across NZ parcels and Big Chill.</li><li>Information Management is likely to show improved margin performance.</li></ul>

We expect Freightways (FRW) to report a strong FY26 result on 17 August 2026, driven by Express Package despite higher fuel costs.We forecast strong growth in Express Package profits, supported by the first-time consolidation (five months) of newly acquired VTFE, strong volume growth at Allied Express, a strong AUD, domestic parcel price increases driving gross margin expansion, and positive volume development across NZ parcels and Big Chill.Information Management is likely to show improved margin performance.

Freightways FY26 Preview—Express Package Set to Deliver

Equity Capital Markets

SHEIN Global Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Recently we revisited the SHEIN vs Amazon shopping comparison we first tried in Dec 2023</li>
<li>For the items we purchased 17 months ago, total cost at AMZN was largely unchanged</li>
<li>But at SHEIN, those items almost <em>tripled</em> in cost, still feature slow transits, difficult returns</li>
</ul>


Recently we revisited the SHEIN vs Amazon shopping comparison we first tried in Dec 2023
For the items we purchased 17 months ago, total cost at AMZN was largely unchanged
But at SHEIN, those items almost tripled in cost, still feature slow transits, difficult returns


SHEIN Vs Amazon, Part II: What Changed Since Our Last Shopping Adventure? SHEIN Cost Nearly Tripled!

<ul>
<li>Crucial US "de minimis" imports exemption will end this Thursday night, May 1st</li>
<li>Beginning May 2nd, low-value direct-to-US consumer imports subject to duties, reporting </li>
<li>For US consumers, buying from SHEIN et al set to become more expensive, more onerous</li>
</ul>


Crucial US "de minimis" imports exemption will end this Thursday night, May 1st
Beginning May 2nd, low-value direct-to-US consumer imports subject to duties, reporting 
For US consumers, buying from SHEIN et al set to become more expensive, more onerous


May 1st Marks End of US "De Minimis" Exemption that Has Enabled Growth of SHEIN, Temu, & AliExpress

United States

United Parcel Service, Inc.(UPS) delivers packages and documents throughout the United States and in other countries and territories.  The Company also provides global supply chain services and less-than-truckload transportation, primarily in the U.S. UPS's business consists of integrated air and ground pick-up and delivery network

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United Parcel Service Cl B (UPS US)

SF Holding H126: Revenue up 6% Y/Y, but EBITDA Margin Down on Rising Fuel Costs, Changing Mix

SF Holding's H126 results were uninspiring, with Revenue climbing 6% but margins falling vs H125. We believe high fuel costs and changing sales mix...

Tracking Traffic

The Curious Case of $60M of Bogus US Postage or 'How Can They Can Make Money Exporting $5 Shirts?!'

Thie story of fake US postage being used to distribute Chinese goods to US consumers isn't just a fascinating story -- it could potentially have...

Tracking Traffic

Freightways FY26 Preview—Express Package Set to Deliver

We expect Freightways (FRW) to report a strong FY26 result on 17 August 2026, driven by Express Package despite higher fuel costs. We forecast...

Forsyth Barr

SHEIN Vs Amazon, Part II: What Changed Since Our Last Shopping Adventure? SHEIN Cost Nearly Tripled!

Now that fast fashion giant SHEIN has finally filed offering documents in Hong Kong, we believe it's a good time to revisit the company's evolution...

Tracking Traffic

May 1st Marks End of US "De Minimis" Exemption that Has Enabled Growth of SHEIN, Temu, & AliExpress

Now that fast-fashion giant SHEIN has finally filed offering documents in Hong Kong (July 27), we believe it's a good time to revisit the company's...

Tracking Traffic

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