Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Rallies appear to be stalling-out near logical resistances in the largest global equity markets. That includes 5670-5783 on SPX, 2690-2700 on Japan's TOPIX, and 4884 on Europe's EURO STOXX 50.</li>
<li>We continue to believe these indexes will roll over near current or marginally higher levels, fitting with our ongoing belief that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1-to-4-month pullback/consolidation.</li>
<li>Long-Term uptrend violations on global indexes and continued outperformance from defensive Sectors are our top concerns for global equities, though recession indicators and a Fed cutting cycle are also concerns.</li>
</ul>


Rallies appear to be stalling-out near logical resistances in the largest global equity markets. That includes 5670-5783 on SPX, 2690-2700 on Japan's TOPIX, and 4884 on Europe's EURO STOXX 50.
We continue to believe these indexes will roll over near current or marginally higher levels, fitting with our ongoing belief that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1-to-4-month pullback/consolidation.
Long-Term uptrend violations on global indexes and continued outperformance from defensive Sectors are our top concerns for global equities, though recession indicators and a Fed cutting cycle are also concerns.


Expecting Downside Ahead; Stick With Defensives; Downgrading Taiwan to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signs

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).</li>
<li>We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.</li>
<li>Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."</li>
</ul>


We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).
We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.
Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."


Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In an attempt to cover more companies, we shift gears from individual companies to sectoral analysis, focusing on alcoholic beverages in this insight.</li>
<li>Companies in focus are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-spirits-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5146:1" rel="noopener">United Spirits (UNSP IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/radico-khaitan-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20842:1" rel="noopener">Radico Khaitan (RDCK IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sula-vineyards-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36206:1" rel="noopener">Sula Vineyards (SULA IN)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-breweries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18080:1" rel="noopener">United Breweries (UBBL IN)</a>. </li>
<li>UNSP remains the best among the pack in terms of earnings quality, and SULA occupies the other extreme. RDCK is chasing growth, and UBBL is facing challenges. </li>
</ul>


In an attempt to cover more companies, we shift gears from individual companies to sectoral analysis, focusing on alcoholic beverages in this insight.
Companies in focus are United Spirits (UNSP IN), Radico Khaitan (RDCK IN) , Sula Vineyards (SULA IN) &amp; United Breweries (UBBL IN). 
UNSP remains the best among the pack in terms of earnings quality, and SULA occupies the other extreme. RDCK is chasing growth, and UBBL is facing challenges. 


Narrative and Numbers | Alcoholic Beverages | FY24

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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<ul><li>UNSP’s 1QFY25 print was above our estimates; as mid-single-digit volume growth in the P&amp;A surprised us positively despite elections-related restrictions</li><li>UNSP is targeting low teen revenue growth in the P&amp;A segment in FY25, with a mix of 40/60% skewed towards volume/price respectively</li><li>We believe the low teen revenue growth in the P&amp;A segment might be difficult to come by in FY25, as the last three years have seen very good realisation growth (the P&amp;A segment saw a realisation CAGR of 8% over FY21-24) on the back of price increases given by state governments and increased salience of premium products</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

UNSP’s 1QFY25 print was above our estimates; as mid-single-digit volume growth in the P&amp;A surprised us positively despite elections-related restrictionsUNSP is targeting low teen revenue growth in the P&amp;A segment in FY25, with a mix of 40/60% skewed towards volume/price respectivelyWe believe the low teen revenue growth in the P&amp;A segment might be difficult to come by in FY25, as the last three years have seen very good realisation growth (the P&amp;A segment saw a realisation CAGR of 8% over FY21-24) on the back of price increases given by state governments and increased salience of premium productsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

United Spirits (Q1FY25 Results Review): Decent Operating Performance. Maintain ADD

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>HDFC Bank raises fixed deposit rates to 7.35% and 7.40% for specific tenors.</li>
<li>Adani Green Energy starts 250 MW wind project, boosting total capacity to 2,250 MW.</li>
<li>EQT exits RBL Bank with Rs 1,100 crore stake sale; shares drop 3%.</li>
</ul>


HDFC Bank raises fixed deposit rates to 7.35% and 7.40% for specific tenors.
Adani Green Energy starts 250 MW wind project, boosting total capacity to 2,250 MW.
EQT exits RBL Bank with Rs 1,100 crore stake sale; shares drop 3%.


# 34 India Insight: HDFC Raises FD, Adani Green 250 MW Wind Project, EQT Exits RBL

India

United Spirits Ltd. manufactures and distributes alcoholic beverages. The Company provides a variety of alcohols and spirits, including whiskey, brandy, and rum. United Spirits also manufactures indian-made foreign liquor brands. United Spirits serves customers worldwide.

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United Spirits (UNITDSPR IN)

Expecting Downside Ahead; Stick With Defensives; Downgrading Taiwan to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signs

Expecting Downside Ahead $ACWI $SPX; Stick With Defensive Sectors; Downgrading Taiwan $EWT $TSM to Market Weight; Global Discretionary vs. Staples...

Vermilion Research

Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Downgrading Japan TOPIX, Nikkei; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI $EEM to Neutral; Many Risk-Off Signals increase odds...

Vermilion Research

Narrative and Numbers | Alcoholic Beverages | FY24

United Spirits leads in earnings quality while Sula Vineyards lags behind, Radico Khaitan pursues growth, and United Breweries encounters challenges.

Pranav Bhavsar

United Spirits (Q1FY25 Results Review): Decent Operating Performance. Maintain ADD

UNSP’s 1QFY25 print was above our estimates; as mid-single-digit volume growth in the P&A surprised us positively despite elections-related...

HDFC Securities

# 34 India Insight: HDFC Raises FD, Adani Green 250 MW Wind Project, EQT Exits RBL

HDFC Bank raises fixed deposit rates, Adani Green Energy expands wind project capacity, EQT exits RBL Bank causing share drop.

Sudarshan Bhandari

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Expecting Downside Ahead; Stick With Defensives; Downgrading Taiwan to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signs

Expecting Downside Ahead $ACWI $SPX; Stick With Defensive Sectors; Downgrading Taiwan $EWT $TSM to Market Weight; Global Discretionary vs. Staples...

Vermilion Research

Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Downgrading Japan TOPIX, Nikkei; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI $EEM to Neutral; Many Risk-Off Signals increase odds...

Vermilion Research

Narrative and Numbers | Alcoholic Beverages | FY24

United Spirits leads in earnings quality while Sula Vineyards lags behind, Radico Khaitan pursues growth, and United Breweries encounters challenges.

Pranav Bhavsar

United Spirits (Q1FY25 Results Review): Decent Operating Performance. Maintain ADD

UNSP’s 1QFY25 print was above our estimates; as mid-single-digit volume growth in the P&A surprised us positively despite elections-related...

HDFC Securities

# 34 India Insight: HDFC Raises FD, Adani Green 250 MW Wind Project, EQT Exits RBL

​HDFC Bank raises fixed deposit rates, Adani Green Energy expands wind project capacity, EQT exits RBL Bank causing share drop.

Sudarshan Bhandari

HDFC Bank raises fixed deposit rates, Adani Green Energy expands wind project capacity, EQT exits RBL Bank causing share drop.