European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Nippon Steel proposes binding governance safeguards, including a U.S. CEO, majority-U.S. board, and a “golden share” for U.S. veto power on strategic decisions.</li>
<li>USW union opposition remains vocal, but Trump’s political pivot reframes the deal as a domestic partnership, easing labor and nationalist concerns.</li>
<li>Antitrust risk is low due to limited overlap; CFIUS clearance remains the key regulatory hurdle, with approval possible by late July or early August.</li>
</ul>


Nippon Steel proposes binding governance safeguards, including a U.S. CEO, majority-U.S. board, and a “golden share” for U.S. veto power on strategic decisions.
USW union opposition remains vocal, but Trump’s political pivot reframes the deal as a domestic partnership, easing labor and nationalist concerns.
Antitrust risk is low due to limited overlap; CFIUS clearance remains the key regulatory hurdle, with approval possible by late July or early August.


Steel Resolve: Nippon's Deal Gains Traction Amid Regulatory Reforging

<ul>
<li>Trump’s endorsement removes the political overhang, reigniting momentum for Nippon Steel’s $55/share all-cash offer.</li>
<li>Implied EV/EBITDA of 8.94x reflects ~$2–3B in strategic synergies over standalone valuation.</li>
<li>11.59% annualized return offers attractive arbitrage upside with manageable regulatory and execution risk.</li>
</ul>


Trump’s endorsement removes the political overhang, reigniting momentum for Nippon Steel’s $55/share all-cash offer.
Implied EV/EBITDA of 8.94x reflects ~$2–3B in strategic synergies over standalone valuation.
11.59% annualized return offers attractive arbitrage upside with manageable regulatory and execution risk.


Forged in Politics: Nippon’s $55 Bid for X Heats Up Again

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>United States Steel Corporation posted robust financial results for the fourth quarter and the entire fiscal year of 2023, while also spotlighting a pending merger.</li><li>The company's net earnings for the full year totaled $895 million, translating to $3.56 per diluted share.</li><li>The fourth quarter adjusted net earnings came in at $167 million, or $0.67 per diluted share, complemented by $330 million in adjusted EBITDA.</li></ul>

United States Steel Corporation posted robust financial results for the fourth quarter and the entire fiscal year of 2023, while also spotlighting a pending merger.The company's net earnings for the full year totaled $895 million, translating to $3.56 per diluted share.The fourth quarter adjusted net earnings came in at $167 million, or $0.67 per diluted share, complemented by $330 million in adjusted EBITDA.

U.S. Steel: An Insight Into Its Market Dynamics and Strategic Positioning!

<ul>
<li>Nippon Steel's $14.9 billion acquisition bid for U.S. Steel, announced in December 2023, faced regulatory resistance and was blocked by the Biden administration over national security concerns.</li>
<li>U.S. Steel’s Big River Steel 2 expansion will double capacity to 6.3 million tons by 2026, contributing over 50% of EBITDA and supporting enhanced free cash flow generation.</li>
<li>Despite the failed merger, U.S. Steel’s intrinsic value, supported by a $39.75 fair value estimate, easing capex, and reshoring tailwinds, offers a ~19% upside from the $33.30 closing price.</li>
</ul>


Nippon Steel's $14.9 billion acquisition bid for U.S. Steel, announced in December 2023, faced regulatory resistance and was blocked by the Biden administration over national security concerns.
U.S. Steel’s Big River Steel 2 expansion will double capacity to 6.3 million tons by 2026, contributing over 50% of EBITDA and supporting enhanced free cash flow generation.
Despite the failed merger, U.S. Steel’s intrinsic value, supported by a $39.75 fair value estimate, easing capex, and reshoring tailwinds, offers a ~19% upside from the $33.30 closing price.


Nippon Steel/US Steel: Deal Blocked but Offering Robust Standalone Value

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>US tariff agreements have contained tariffs at 10% for the UK, 15% for Japan and the EU, 19% for Indonesia and 20% for Vietnam. Lower tariffs will dampen inflation. </li>
<li>FOMC ought to cut rates now, but may stand on ceremony. The tariffs are nonetheless likely to steadily bolster US manufacturing in H2/2025, with Jun'25 steel output already up 4.6%YoY. </li>
<li>With growth higher than expected, and new revenues of over US$300bn from tariffs, the fiscal deficit should fall below 6% of GDP, allowing bond yields to moderate below 4%. </li>
</ul>


US tariff agreements have contained tariffs at 10% for the UK, 15% for Japan and the EU, 19% for Indonesia and 20% for Vietnam. Lower tariffs will dampen inflation. 
FOMC ought to cut rates now, but may stand on ceremony. The tariffs are nonetheless likely to steadily bolster US manufacturing in H2/2025, with Jun'25 steel output already up 4.6%YoY. 
With growth higher than expected, and new revenues of over US$300bn from tariffs, the fiscal deficit should fall below 6% of GDP, allowing bond yields to moderate below 4%. 


US: Tariff Deals with Japan, EU, Indonesia, Philippines Sharply Reduce Stagflation Risk

United States

United States Steel Corporation operates as an integrated steel producer. The Company manufactures flat-rolled and tubular products with production operations in North America and Europe. United States Steel serves the automotive, appliance, container, industrial machinery, construction, and oil and gas industries.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

United States Steel (X US)

Steel Resolve: Nippon's Deal Gains Traction Amid Regulatory Reforging

Trump's reversal revives Nippon Steel’s $55 bid for U.S. Steel. With political resistance easing and CFIUS re-review pending, risk-reward remains...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Forged in Politics: Nippon’s $55 Bid for X Heats Up Again

Trump's reversal unblocks Nippon’s $55 bid for U.S. Steel. Synergies justify the premium; arbitrage setup offers 11.6% return with downside...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

U.S. Steel: An Insight Into Its Market Dynamics and Strategic Positioning!

United States Steel Corporation posted robust financial results for the fourth quarter and the entire fiscal year of 2023, while also spotlighting...

Baptista Research

Nippon Steel/US Steel: Deal Blocked but Offering Robust Standalone Value

Nippon Steel's bid for U.S. Steel blocked, but U.S. Steel's expansion plans and strong intrinsic value offer upside potential despite regulatory...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

US: Tariff Deals with Japan, EU, Indonesia, Philippines Sharply Reduce Stagflation Risk

US tariff deals lowering them will help dampen inflation, and should trigger rate cuts. Tariffs are already boosting US manufacturing, thus will...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Steel Resolve: Nippon's Deal Gains Traction Amid Regulatory Reforging

Trump's reversal revives Nippon Steel’s $55 bid for U.S. Steel. With political resistance easing and CFIUS re-review pending, risk-reward remains...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Forged in Politics: Nippon’s $55 Bid for X Heats Up Again

Trump's reversal unblocks Nippon’s $55 bid for U.S. Steel. Synergies justify the premium; arbitrage setup offers 11.6% return with downside...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

U.S. Steel: An Insight Into Its Market Dynamics and Strategic Positioning!

United States Steel Corporation posted robust financial results for the fourth quarter and the entire fiscal year of 2023, while also spotlighting...

Baptista Research

Nippon Steel/US Steel: Deal Blocked but Offering Robust Standalone Value

​Nippon Steel's bid for U.S. Steel blocked, but U.S. Steel's expansion plans and strong intrinsic value offer upside potential despite regulatory...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

US: Tariff Deals with Japan, EU, Indonesia, Philippines Sharply Reduce Stagflation Risk

​US tariff deals lowering them will help dampen inflation, and should trigger rate cuts. Tariffs are already boosting US manufacturing, thus will...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Nippon Steel's bid for U.S. Steel blocked, but U.S. Steel's expansion plans and strong intrinsic value offer upside potential despite regulatory...

US tariff deals lowering them will help dampen inflation, and should trigger rate cuts. Tariffs are already boosting US manufacturing, thus will...