Economist (US Macro), RDQ Economics

Conrad DeQuadros

Economist (US Macro)

RDQ Economics

RDQ Economics provides global macroeconomic consulting services with an emphasis on U.S. economic fundamentals and monetary policy.  
​
Our views are driven by consistent application of classical economic and monetary principles and has generated superior anticipation of changes in the stance of monetary policy and of movements in economic growth and inflation.
​
The founders of RDQ Economics—John Ryding and Conrad DeQuadros—worked together on Wall Street for a decade, in the independent research space for nine years, and have experience in central banking at the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.  John and Conrad have worked closely with fixed income, foreign exchange, and equity traders and portfolio managers, which has enabled their analysis and advice to be tailored to a clientele that is focused on trading and investment decisions.

Credit

Following a brief government shutdown on Thursday night, President Trump signed a budget agreement on Friday that will raise federal spending over the next two years by $296 billion above the limits imposed by 2011’s Budget Control Act.  There are some limited positives from the budget agreement: the deal takes government shutdowns off the table for two years and the debt ceiling is suspended until March 2019.  However, updated Congressional Budget Office (CBO) budget projections—once this…

Following a brief government shutdown on Thursday night, President Trump signed a budget agreement on Friday that will raise federal spending over the next two years by $296 billion above the limits imposed by 2011’s Budget Control Act.  There are some limited positives from the budget agreement: the deal takes government shutdowns off the table for two years and the debt ceiling is suspended until March 2019.  However, updated Congressional Budget Office (CBO) budget projections—once this…

Friday's Budget Agreement Makes A Poor U.S. Fiscal Outlook Even Worse

Multi-asset Macro/Emerging Markets Strategist

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div class="content-highlight">
Executive summary: Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. 
<ul>
<li>
Trade ideas: We position for a policy-driven RMB depreciation by going long SGD-CNH. We take profit on long VIX but stay short 10-year USTs. We add long AUD-NZD, short Indian equities, long EUR-GBP to our watchlist. We may short the Philippine peso if the BSP keeps rates on hold.</li>
<li>
Monday: Composite PMIs, Turkey CPI, Indonesia GDP and the Korea High Court's ruling on Samsung heir Jay Y. Lee</li>
<li>
Tuesday…</li>
</ul>
</div>


Executive summary: Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. 


Trade ideas: We position for a policy-driven RMB depreciation by going long SGD-CNH. We take profit on long VIX but stay short 10-year USTs. We add long AUD-NZD, short Indian equities, long EUR-GBP to our watchlist. We may short the Philippine peso if the BSP keeps rates on hold.

Monday: Composite PMIs, Turkey CPI, Indonesia GDP and the Korea High Court's ruling on Samsung heir Jay Y. Lee

Tuesday…



Week Ahead in Global Macro: US Stopgap #5, UST Auctions, RBA, RBNZ, BOE, China Trade, Phils. BSP

Nonfarm payrolls rose 200,000 in January, modestly above expectations.  The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% and the labor force participation rate was unchanged at 62.7%.  The U6 labor impairment rate edged higher to 8.2% from 8.1%.Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% in January, raising year-over-year wage growth to 2.9% from a revised 2.7% (was 2.5%).  Total private-sector hours worked fell 0.5% but hours worked of factory production workers gained 0.2%. <table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 80px;">January</td>
<td style="width: 95px;">December</td>
<td style="width: 95px;">November</td>
<td style="width: 95px;">3-mth…</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>

Nonfarm payrolls rose 200,000 in January, modestly above expectations.  The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% and the labor force participation rate was unchanged at 62.7%.  The U6 labor impairment rate edged higher to 8.2% from 8.1%.Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% in January, raising year-over-year wage growth to 2.9% from a revised 2.7% (was 2.5%).  Total private-sector hours worked fell 0.5% but hours worked of factory production workers gained 0.2%. 

January
December
November
3-mth…



U.S. Employment and Wage Growth Was Strong in January

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concluded its two-day policy meeting today.  As was widely expected, the FOMC left the fed funds rate target range unchanged at 1.25%–1.5% and there were no dissenting votes.  The policy statement noted that “labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a solid rate. Gains in employment, household spending, and business fixed investment have been solid, and the unemployment rate has stayed low.”  This is an…

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concluded its two-day policy meeting today.  As was widely expected, the FOMC left the fed funds rate target range unchanged at 1.25%–1.5% and there were no dissenting votes.  The policy statement noted that “labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a solid rate. Gains in employment, household spending, and business fixed investment have been solid, and the unemployment rate has stayed low.”  This is an…

Fed On Track For A March Hike With Few Changes To Policy Guidance Today

This is the third paper in our series of short pieces with which we take a deeper dive into our macro projections for 2018.  In this paper we discuss the outlook for inflation—likely the most important topic for the monetary policy and markets outlook in 2018, not just in the U.S. but also in other major economies.  A liftoff on interest rates in the Eurozone and Japan will require signs that inflation is moving toward the ECB and Bank of Japan targets, while the ability of the Bank of England…

This is the third paper in our series of short pieces with which we take a deeper dive into our macro projections for 2018.  In this paper we discuss the outlook for inflation—likely the most important topic for the monetary policy and markets outlook in 2018, not just in the U.S. but also in other major economies.  A liftoff on interest rates in the Eurozone and Japan will require signs that inflation is moving toward the ECB and Bank of Japan targets, while the ability of the Bank of England…

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

Friday's Budget Agreement Makes A Poor U.S. Fiscal Outlook Even Worse

Following a brief government shutdown on Thursday night, President Trump signed a budget agreement on Friday that will raise federal spending over...

RDQ Economics

Week Ahead in Global Macro: US Stopgap #5, UST Auctions, RBA, RBNZ, BOE, China Trade, Phils. BSP

Executive summary: Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. Trade ideas: We position for a policy-driven...

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

U.S. Employment and Wage Growth Was Strong in January

Nonfarm payrolls rose 200,000 in January, modestly above expectations. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% and the labor force participation...

RDQ Economics

Fed On Track For A March Hike With Few Changes To Policy Guidance Today

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concluded its two-day policy meeting today. As was widely expected, the FOMC left the fed funds rate...

RDQ Economics

U.S. Inflation Outlook and Risks

This is the third paper in our series of short pieces with which we take a deeper dive into our macro projections for 2018. In this paper we...

RDQ Economics

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)