Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<p>Markets are looking for further ammunition to drive equities higher after a stunning start to 2018 with record equity inflows. In our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/powerful-yield-trigger-chart" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:16925">Powerful Yield Trigger Chart</a> insight we outlined a 10yr breakout above 2.63% (if it holds) and a drive to 2.76% and touched on the bias for the US yield curve to steepen and wanted to provide a bit more detail in the charts. </p><p>We are watching how yields respond to a strong US Q4 GDP print which should be a catalyst in drive yields firmly through 2.63% (benefiting…</p>

Markets are looking for further ammunition to drive equities higher after a stunning start to 2018 with record equity inflows. In our Powerful Yield Trigger Chart insight we outlined a 10yr breakout above 2.63% (if it holds) and a drive to 2.76% and touched on the bias for the US yield curve to steepen and wanted to provide a bit more detail in the charts. We are watching how yields respond to a strong US Q4 GDP print which should be a catalyst in drive yields firmly through 2.63% (benefiting…

US Yield Curve to Steepen with a Clean Break

Economist

Richard Iley

Macroeconomics

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/042/625/original/Screen%20Shot%202018-01-22%20at%2010.01.05%20AM.png?1516577581" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="42625"></figure><div class="content-highlight">
<p>US 10-year Treasury yields have spurted higher, moving into the 2.6-2.7% range that we have long tipped as likely given both the US economy's current extraordinary degree of cyclical momentum and mounting evidence of a recrudescence of core inflationary pressure (see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/global-18-for-18-part-1" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:16410">Global: 18 For ‘18 - Part 1</a>). As <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/381" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:381">Thomas Schroeder</a> has highlighted, yields now flirting with key technical levels. </p>
<p>The temptation is to extrapolate the recent trend and assume that the 'melt up' in yields continues, even gathers…</p>
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US 10-year Treasury yields have spurted higher, moving into the 2.6-2.7% range that we have long tipped as likely given both the US economy's current extraordinary degree of cyclical momentum and mounting evidence of a recrudescence of core inflationary pressure (see Global: 18 For ‘18 - Part 1). As Thomas Schroeder has highlighted, yields now flirting with key technical levels. 
The temptation is to extrapolate the recent trend and assume that the 'melt up' in yields continues, even gathers…


Economist (US Macro), RDQ Economics

Conrad DeQuadros

Economist (US Macro)

RDQ Economics

RDQ Economics provides global macroeconomic consulting services with an emphasis on U.S. economic fundamentals and monetary policy.  
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Our views are driven by consistent application of classical economic and monetary principles and has generated superior anticipation of changes in the stance of monetary policy and of movements in economic growth and inflation.
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The founders of RDQ Economics—John Ryding and Conrad DeQuadros—worked together on Wall Street for a decade, in the independent research space for nine years, and have experience in central banking at the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.  John and Conrad have worked closely with fixed income, foreign exchange, and equity traders and portfolio managers, which has enabled their analysis and advice to be tailored to a clientele that is focused on trading and investment decisions.

Credit

<p>The fundamental case for low bond yields rests on two premises.  First, the neutral level of real yields will remain much lower than has been the case historically.  Second, inflation will continue to be held in check at levels below the Fed’s target rate of 2%.  At the present time, the roughly 2½% ten-year yield decomposes into a 2% inflation breakeven and a ½% real yield.  What happens to the low yield case from the impact of rate hikes predicated on, say, a sharper decline in the…</p>

The fundamental case for low bond yields rests on two premises.  First, the neutral level of real yields will remain much lower than has been the case historically.  Second, inflation will continue to be held in check at levels below the Fed’s target rate of 2%.  At the present time, the roughly 2½% ten-year yield decomposes into a 2% inflation breakeven and a ½% real yield.  What happens to the low yield case from the impact of rate hikes predicated on, say, a sharper decline in the…

Bonds—Supply, Inflation, and the Treasury Yield Curve

<div style="text-align: left;">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img class="editor-image img-responsive" src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/042/456/original/CP%20header.jpg?1516262019" data-smartkarma-image-id="42456"></figure><p>This is such a compelling bullish yield chart that supports our above consensus rising yield view. More importantly, levels outlined will act as momentum triggers for a potentially explosive move higher in yield. The 2yr and 5yr have demonstrated good leadership for the 10yr with the 5yr surpassing the 2.34% Fib level with ease, suggesting bull energy bleeds into the 10yr. This will have a positive impact on global financials but will force lofty EM equities to blink as we push to EEM 50.50…</p>
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This is such a compelling bullish yield chart that supports our above consensus rising yield view. More importantly, levels outlined will act as momentum triggers for a potentially explosive move higher in yield. The 2yr and 5yr have demonstrated good leadership for the 10yr with the 5yr surpassing the 2.34% Fib level with ease, suggesting bull energy bleeds into the 10yr. This will have a positive impact on global financials but will force lofty EM equities to blink as we push to EEM 50.50…


FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

<p><em>In our post on Monday (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-white-trashing-of-the-us-dollar" target="_blank">The white trashing of the US dollar</a>), we suggested that it may be too late and dangerous to sell the USD that is falling in the face of a rising yield advantage, tax cuts that should help boost the already solid recovery path in the USA, late in its economic cycle, and potential repatriation inflows.  There may be some reasonable explanations for the USD fall, such as speculation about QE unwind in Europe and Japan, capital inflows to EM markets, and the toxic political climate in the USA.  Sentiment towards the USD appears quite bearish and may remain weak despite a strengthening US economy and rising inflation expectations.  As such, a better strategy may be the consider the implications of a weaker USD in this context.  In particular, it should add to upside pressure on US yields. Below we discuss this and other reasons to see higher US and global bond yields.</em></p>

In our post on Monday (The white trashing of the US dollar), we suggested that it may be too late and dangerous to sell the USD that is falling in the face of a rising yield advantage, tax cuts that should help boost the already solid recovery path in the USA, late in its economic cycle, and potential repatriation inflows.  There may be some reasonable explanations for the USD fall, such as speculation about QE unwind in Europe and Japan, capital inflows to EM markets, and the toxic political climate in the USA.  Sentiment towards the USD appears quite bearish and may remain weak despite a strengthening US economy and rising inflation expectations.  As such, a better strategy may be the consider the implications of a weaker USD in this context.  In particular, it should add to upside pressure on US yields. Below we discuss this and other reasons to see higher US and global bond yields.

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US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

US Yield Curve to Steepen with a Clean Break

Markets are looking for further ammunition to drive equities higher after a stunning start to 2018 with record equity inflows. In our Powerful...

Thomas Schroeder

Chart of the Day: End of Term?

US 10-year Treasury yields have spurted higher, moving into the 2.6-2.7% range that we have long tipped as likely given both the US economy's...

Richard Iley

Bonds—Supply, Inflation, and the Treasury Yield Curve

The fundamental case for low bond yields rests on two premises. First, the neutral level of real yields will remain much lower than has been the...

RDQ Economics

Powerful Yield Trigger Chart

This is such a compelling bullish yield chart that supports our above consensus rising yield view. More importantly, levels outlined will act as...

Thomas Schroeder

Multiple Upside Risks for US Bond Yields

In our post on Monday (The white trashing of the US dollar), we suggested that it may be too late and dangerous to sell the USD that is falling in...

Greg Gibbs

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