Asian Economist

Kok Peng Chan

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>The overlooked $233T US financial asset base is the missing cushion: even small portfolio reallocations can absorb annual Treasury issuance, reframing debt sustainability from scarcity to balance-sheet capacity</li>
<li>Put simply, a 1% reallocation from US household assets alone generates $1.4T in Treasury demand—proving sustainability depends on portfolio shifts, not new savings nor foreign appetite</li>
<li>As debt fears fade and the US maintains higher real yields, resilient growth, and deep liquid markets, USD weakness likely bottomed, making a firmer dollar a reasonable 2026 outlook</li>
</ul>


The overlooked $233T US financial asset base is the missing cushion: even small portfolio reallocations can absorb annual Treasury issuance, reframing debt sustainability from scarcity to balance-sheet capacity
Put simply, a 1% reallocation from US household assets alone generates $1.4T in Treasury demand—proving sustainability depends on portfolio shifts, not new savings nor foreign appetite
As debt fears fade and the US maintains higher real yields, resilient growth, and deep liquid markets, USD weakness likely bottomed, making a firmer dollar a reasonable 2026 outlook


Understanding US Debt Dynamics (2): The $38T Debt Vs the Demand Story Wall Street Ignores

Understand How Markets Actually Work, Learning.Investing.Thriving.

Marc Rudajev

Understand How Markets Actually Work

Learning.Investing.Thriving.

Learning.Investing.Thriving. is built on a simple idea: If you want to build wealth, you need more than stock tips. You need to understand how markets actually work.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>A guy named Shagun laid out a plan. The 30-year Treasury yields 5.31%.</li><li>Sell the house. Put the entire $800,000 into Treasuries. Collect $42,480 a year in interest. Use that to pay rent.</li><li>His conclusion: suddenly renting doesn’t sound so stupid. As someone who often struggles with the tradeoff between owning real estate or simply renting, this post peaked my interest.</li></ul>

A guy named Shagun laid out a plan. The 30-year Treasury yields 5.31%.Sell the house. Put the entire $800,000 into Treasuries. Collect $42,480 a year in interest. Use that to pay rent.His conclusion: suddenly renting doesn’t sound so stupid. As someone who often struggles with the tradeoff between owning real estate or simply renting, this post peaked my interest.

Episode 50: The Inflation Problem & How to Fight It (2 Investments For Your Portfolio)

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), which has remained in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week(11/19/25-11/25/25) when we went neutral.</li>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX, $610 on QQQ, and $245 on IWM continue to hold. Intermediate-term, still bullish above 6480-6520</li>
<li>SPX gap down (resistance at 6910-6940, Staples at 4-month RS highs, and more are giving us reason for caution in the near-term, though we still view pullbacks as a buy</li>
</ul>


We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), which has remained in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week(11/19/25-11/25/25) when we went neutral.
We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX, $610 on QQQ, and $245 on IWM continue to hold. Intermediate-term, still bullish above 6480-6520
SPX gap down (resistance at 6910-6940, Staples at 4-month RS highs, and more are giving us reason for caution in the near-term, though we still view pullbacks as a buy


Reason for Near-Term Caution? 10Y Treasury Yield Above 4.20%; Upgrading Energy and Staples

<ul>
<li>We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on S&amp;P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), which has remained in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week (11/19/25-11/25/25) when we were neutral.</li>
<li>Our intermediate-term bullish outlook has been in place since 5/14/25. We'll stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on QQQ hold.</li>
<li>Additionally, as discussed last week (12/2/25) we believe SPX, QQQ, and Russell 2000 (IWM) are in the midst of a new lockout rally, which is likely to run through early-2026</li>
</ul>


We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on S&amp;P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), which has remained in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week (11/19/25-11/25/25) when we were neutral.
Our intermediate-term bullish outlook has been in place since 5/14/25. We'll stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on QQQ hold.
Additionally, as discussed last week (12/2/25) we believe SPX, QQQ, and Russell 2000 (IWM) are in the midst of a new lockout rally, which is likely to run through early-2026


Rising Yields a Problem?; Russell 2000 Breakout; No Concern if 10Y Treasury Yield Is Below 4.2%

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>A limited interim deal between the US and Iran is imminent, which will extend the ceasefire until mid-August, reopen the Straits of Hormuz and remove the blockade of Iran's ports. </li>
<li>This will significantly ease the supply of crude oil and gas, allowing Brent crude prices to fall toward US$75/bbl, boosting global supplies of petrochemicals and fertilizers. Inflation will ease globally. </li>
<li>Nuclear negotiations will be fraught, but the US has more leverage, as any sanctions relief for Iran is predicated on nuclear-talks progress. Iran's missiles provide less leverage, except restarting war. </li>
</ul>


A limited interim deal between the US and Iran is imminent, which will extend the ceasefire until mid-August, reopen the Straits of Hormuz and remove the blockade of Iran's ports. 
This will significantly ease the supply of crude oil and gas, allowing Brent crude prices to fall toward US$75/bbl, boosting global supplies of petrochemicals and fertilizers. Inflation will ease globally. 
Nuclear negotiations will be fraught, but the US has more leverage, as any sanctions relief for Iran is predicated on nuclear-talks progress. Iran's missiles provide less leverage, except restarting war. 


US-Iran Near-Term Relief: War's First Phase Ending; Tough Nuclear Negotiations Ahead

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

Understanding US Debt Dynamics (2): The $38T Debt Vs the Demand Story Wall Street Ignores

$38T debt dominates headlines. This report reveals the $233T demand cushion, stable real yields, and resilient buyers—challenging debt panic and...

Kok Peng Chan

Episode 50: The Inflation Problem & How to Fight It (2 Investments For Your Portfolio)

A guy named Shagun laid out a plan. The 30-year Treasury yields 5.31%. Sell the house. Put the entire $800,000 into Treasuries. Collect $42,480...

Marc Rudajev

Reason for Near-Term Caution? 10Y Treasury Yield Above 4.20%; Upgrading Energy and Staples

Reason for Near-Term Caution? $SPX $QQQ 10-Year Treasury Yield Breaking Above 4.20%; Upgrading Energy $XLE $RSPG and Staples $XLP to market weight,...

Vermilion Research

Rising Yields a Problem?; Russell 2000 Breakout; No Concern if 10Y Treasury Yield Is Below 4.2%

Rising Yields a Problem?; Russell 2000 $IWM Breakout; No Concern if 10Y Treasury Yield is below 4.2%, and quite possibly 4.35%-4.50% if MOVE index...

Vermilion Research

US-Iran Near-Term Relief: War's First Phase Ending; Tough Nuclear Negotiations Ahead

Imminent US-Iran interim deal to ease oil supply, lower prices, and boost global supplies of petrochemicals and fertilizers. Nuclear negotiations...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Understanding US Debt Dynamics (2): The $38T Debt Vs the Demand Story Wall Street Ignores

$38T debt dominates headlines. This report reveals the $233T demand cushion, stable real yields, and resilient buyers—challenging debt panic and...

Kok Peng Chan

Episode 50: The Inflation Problem & How to Fight It (2 Investments For Your Portfolio)

A guy named Shagun laid out a plan. The 30-year Treasury yields 5.31%. Sell the house. Put the entire $800,000 into Treasuries. Collect $42,480...

Marc Rudajev

Reason for Near-Term Caution? 10Y Treasury Yield Above 4.20%; Upgrading Energy and Staples

Reason for Near-Term Caution? $SPX $QQQ 10-Year Treasury Yield Breaking Above 4.20%; Upgrading Energy $XLE $RSPG and Staples $XLP to market weight,...

Vermilion Research

Rising Yields a Problem?; Russell 2000 Breakout; No Concern if 10Y Treasury Yield Is Below 4.2%

Rising Yields a Problem?; Russell 2000 $IWM Breakout; No Concern if 10Y Treasury Yield is below 4.2%, and quite possibly 4.35%-4.50% if MOVE index...

Vermilion Research

US-Iran Near-Term Relief: War's First Phase Ending; Tough Nuclear Negotiations Ahead

​Imminent US-Iran interim deal to ease oil supply, lower prices, and boost global supplies of petrochemicals and fertilizers. Nuclear negotiations...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Imminent US-Iran interim deal to ease oil supply, lower prices, and boost global supplies of petrochemicals and fertilizers. Nuclear negotiations...