Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We mapped the impact of Russia-Ukraine war on aviation companies and compared it against the current Israel-Hamas war. The trends are uncannily similar </li>
<li>Downside pressure lasts for two weeks, followed by a recovery. This suggests good short-term trading opportunities  </li>
<li>Stocks that exhibits deep value are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/us-global-jets-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32756:1" rel="noopener">US Global Jets ETF (JETS US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grupo-aeroportuario-cen-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28565:1" rel="noopener">Grupo Aeroportuario Cen-Adr (OMAB US), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grupo-aeroport-del-sureste-b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27377:1" rel="noopener">Grupo Aeroport Del Sureste-B (ASURB MM), and Aeroportua Del Pacifica (GAPB MM)</a>
</li>
</ul>


We mapped the impact of Russia-Ukraine war on aviation companies and compared it against the current Israel-Hamas war. The trends are uncannily similar 
Downside pressure lasts for two weeks, followed by a recovery. This suggests good short-term trading opportunities  
Stocks that exhibits deep value are US Global Jets ETF (JETS US), Grupo Aeroportuario Cen-Adr (OMAB US), Grupo Aeroport Del Sureste-B (ASURB MM), and Aeroportua Del Pacifica (GAPB MM)



The Cockpit View: The Effect of War and Geopolitics on Aviation Companies

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The surprise US$1.9 billion acquisition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hawaiian-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8296:1" rel="noopener">Hawaiian Holdings (HA US)</a> by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alaska-air-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19543:1" rel="noopener">Alaska Air Group (ALK US)</a> could potentially rerate the U.S. airline sector </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/us-global-jets-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32756:1" rel="noopener">US Global Jets ETF (JETS US)</a> is up 16% from our initiation on 13 November, a mere 5% to our target price of US$19</li>
<li>We advocate to take profits and square this trade in the upcoming days</li>
</ul>


The surprise US$1.9 billion acquisition of Hawaiian Holdings (HA US) by Alaska Air Group (ALK US) could potentially rerate the U.S. airline sector 

US Global Jets ETF (JETS US) is up 16% from our initiation on 13 November, a mere 5% to our target price of US$19
We advocate to take profits and square this trade in the upcoming days


JETS US Equity: Takeoff Accomplished, Time to Return to Base

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Supply shocks from the Strait closure sharply raised fuel costs, disproportionately hurting unhedged U.S. airlines and driving a steep decline in JETS.</li>
<li>XLP fell despite its defensive nature, as rising input costs compressed margins and investors rotated out of staples to fund energy exposure.</li>
<li>XLB declined on supply chain disruptions and recession fears, but easing input costs and improving growth expectations position it for a strong, leverage-driven recovery.</li>
</ul>


Supply shocks from the Strait closure sharply raised fuel costs, disproportionately hurting unhedged U.S. airlines and driving a steep decline in JETS.
XLP fell despite its defensive nature, as rising input costs compressed margins and investors rotated out of staples to fund energy exposure.
XLB declined on supply chain disruptions and recession fears, but easing input costs and improving growth expectations position it for a strong, leverage-driven recovery.


Pricing the Strait: Positioning for a Potential Post-Conflict Market

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Financial Select Sector SPDR F / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6780-6824 on SPX and $255-$257 on IWM continue to hold. With that said, we continue to see deterioration...</li>
<li>...in market dynamics that has us concerned of a deeper pullback, potentially to 6720-6776, 6690, or 6480-6520 on SPX, but 6780-6824 support would need to break first</li>
<li>Financials (XLF) and Discretionary (XLY) are violating crucial price and RS supports, and we are downgrading both Sectors to underweight</li>
</ul>


We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6780-6824 on SPX and $255-$257 on IWM continue to hold. With that said, we continue to see deterioration...
...in market dynamics that has us concerned of a deeper pullback, potentially to 6720-6776, 6690, or 6480-6520 on SPX, but 6780-6824 support would need to break first
Financials (XLF) and Discretionary (XLY) are violating crucial price and RS supports, and we are downgrading both Sectors to underweight


Defensives Still Leading; Deeper Pullback?; Downgrading Financials and Discretionary to Underweight

<ul>
<li>Considering constructive market dynamics and the recent $SPX breakout above 5783 following several months of consolidation, we upgraded our outlook to bullish as of our 10/15/24 U.S. Macro Vision report</li>
<li>Since late-July, we have been neutral on the SPX, preferring to buy near 5100-5200 support and sell near 5670-5783 resistance until there is a break in either direction.</li>
<li>The verdict of the market is the only one that matters, and the breakout above 5783 is the market's way of saying the path of least resistance is higher.</li>
</ul>


Considering constructive market dynamics and the recent $SPX breakout above 5783 following several months of consolidation, we upgraded our outlook to bullish as of our 10/15/24 U.S. Macro Vision report
Since late-July, we have been neutral on the SPX, preferring to buy near 5100-5200 support and sell near 5670-5783 resistance until there is a break in either direction.
The verdict of the market is the only one that matters, and the breakout above 5783 is the market's way of saying the path of least resistance is higher.


Bullish Outlook Focused on Large- And Mid-Caps; Russell 2000 Below Resistance; Concerns Dwindling

United States

US Global Jets ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The Fund tracks a smart beta Index composed of common stocks of U.S. and international passenger airlines, aircraft manufacturers, airports, and terminal services companies listed on well-developed securities exchanges across the globe. The Index may include small, mid, and large capitalization companies.

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US Global Jets ETF (JETS US)

The Cockpit View: The Effect of War and Geopolitics on Aviation Companies

Comparing the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on aviation companies to the current Israel-Hamas war reveals similar trends, suggesting trading...

Mo Aziz

JETS US Equity: Takeoff Accomplished, Time to Return to Base

Alaska Air Group's acquisition of Hawaiian Holdings reshapes US airline sector; US Global Jets ETF nears target price, suggesting it's time to...

Mo Aziz

Pricing the Strait: Positioning for a Potential Post-Conflict Market

Supply shocks from the Strait closure hit US airlines hard, driving JETS down. XLP and XLB also suffered from rising input costs and disruptions,...

Mint Finance

Defensives Still Leading; Deeper Pullback?; Downgrading Financials and Discretionary to Underweight

Defensives Still Leading; Deeper Pullback Coming?; Downgrading Financials $XLF and Discretionary $XLY $XRT to Underweight. Crucial support levels...

Vermilion Research

Bullish Outlook Focused on Large- And Mid-Caps; Russell 2000 Below Resistance; Concerns Dwindling

Bullish Outlook Focused on Large- and Mid-Caps $SPX $NDX $QQQ $IJH $MDY $IWR as of the Oct 11 close above 5783; Russell 2000 $IWM Still Below...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

The Cockpit View: The Effect of War and Geopolitics on Aviation Companies

​Comparing the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on aviation companies to the current Israel-Hamas war reveals similar trends, suggesting trading...

Mo Aziz

JETS US Equity: Takeoff Accomplished, Time to Return to Base

​Alaska Air Group's acquisition of Hawaiian Holdings reshapes US airline sector; US Global Jets ETF nears target price, suggesting it's time to...

Mo Aziz

Pricing the Strait: Positioning for a Potential Post-Conflict Market

​Supply shocks from the Strait closure hit US airlines hard, driving JETS down. XLP and XLB also suffered from rising input costs and disruptions,...

Mint Finance

Defensives Still Leading; Deeper Pullback?; Downgrading Financials and Discretionary to Underweight

Defensives Still Leading; Deeper Pullback Coming?; Downgrading Financials $XLF and Discretionary $XLY $XRT to Underweight. Crucial support levels...

Vermilion Research

Bullish Outlook Focused on Large- And Mid-Caps; Russell 2000 Below Resistance; Concerns Dwindling

Bullish Outlook Focused on Large- and Mid-Caps $SPX $NDX $QQQ $IJH $MDY $IWR as of the Oct 11 close above 5783; Russell 2000 $IWM Still Below...

Vermilion Research

Comparing the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on aviation companies to the current Israel-Hamas war reveals similar trends, suggesting trading...

Alaska Air Group's acquisition of Hawaiian Holdings reshapes US airline sector; US Global Jets ETF nears target price, suggesting it's time to...

Supply shocks from the Strait closure hit US airlines hard, driving JETS down. XLP and XLB also suffered from rising input costs and disruptions,...