Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Discussion covers topics including dollar signals, $CNY fixes, tariffs, and observations on Swiss and sterling</li><li>Dollar remains bearish despite some systematic signals turning less bearish or even bullish</li><li>Client sentiment may be shifting tactically towards throwing in the towel on the bearish dollar trend due to technical patterns, but long-term view remains unchanged</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Discussion covers topics including dollar signals, $CNY fixes, tariffs, and observations on Swiss and sterlingDollar remains bearish despite some systematic signals turning less bearish or even bullishClient sentiment may be shifting tactically towards throwing in the towel on the bearish dollar trend due to technical patterns, but long-term view remains unchangedThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

<ul><li>Market participants should look at a bigger picture view of positioning in US equities, rather than narrow metrics like IMM or market participants only</li><li>European countries, as well as Canada and Australia, are large holders of US equities, with pension funds being major players</li><li>Australian pension funds have over 800 billion in US equities, with a flow rate of 1.2% of GDP going into foreign equities, and have low FX hedge ratios which could be raised in the future</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Market participants should look at a bigger picture view of positioning in US equities, rather than narrow metrics like IMM or market participants onlyEuropean countries, as well as Canada and Australia, are large holders of US equities, with pension funds being major playersAustralian pension funds have over 800 billion in US equities, with a flow rate of 1.2% of GDP going into foreign equities, and have low FX hedge ratios which could be raised in the futureThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX: Deep-dive into global FX hedge ratios

<ul>
<li>FX volumes expected to remain steady in the next month and a half before potentially increasing later in Q3</li>
<li>Dollar risk reversals are priced expensively for puts, suggesting the need for alternative option structures</li>
<li>Consideration of bullish yen option trades in lower beta crossian underlyings like CNH as alternatives to dollar yen positions due to stretched spec positioning and high carry costs</li>
</ul>
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


FX volumes expected to remain steady in the next month and a half before potentially increasing later in Q3
Dollar risk reversals are priced expensively for puts, suggesting the need for alternative option structures
Consideration of bullish yen option trades in lower beta crossian underlyings like CNH as alternatives to dollar yen positions due to stretched spec positioning and high carry costs

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX Derivatives: Thin Cushion. A Slippery Slope from Calm to Uncertainty

<ul>
<li>Dollar decoupled from US rates and equities, investors expected to chase dollar lower</li>
<li>Dollar positioning not as crowded as perceived, global holdings of US equities still large</li>
<li>Unlikely for significant repatriation of Japanese foreign bond investments, focus on rebalancing rather than one-way repatriation; implications of upcoming election on Yen uncertain</li>
</ul>
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Dollar decoupled from US rates and equities, investors expected to chase dollar lower
Dollar positioning not as crowded as perceived, global holdings of US equities still large
Unlikely for significant repatriation of Japanese foreign bond investments, focus on rebalancing rather than one-way repatriation; implications of upcoming election on Yen uncertain

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX: Mid-Year Outlook - Tell me something new

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Richard Howe

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Stock Spin-offs

Event-Driven

<ul><li>The range of ideas is broad. The smallest market cap is a $15MM Canadian micro-cap that is trading below its net cash, and the largest is an $25BN market cap online travel company that is gobbling up its own shares.</li><li>We have ideas profiled from Poland, Canada, India, Austria, Argentina, Italy, and of course, the United States.</li><li>The report will start with my personal favorite idea and then cover the additional ideas in alphabetical order.</li></ul>

The range of ideas is broad. The smallest market cap is a $15MM Canadian micro-cap that is trading below its net cash, and the largest is an $25BN market cap online travel company that is gobbling up its own shares.We have ideas profiled from Poland, Canada, India, Austria, Argentina, Italy, and of course, the United States.The report will start with my personal favorite idea and then cover the additional ideas in alphabetical order.

United States

The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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USD (USD CURNCY)

Global FX: Keeping the bearish USD view

The survey support is needed for discussion topics surrounding the less bearish dollar signals, recent $CNY fixes impacting dollar weakness,...

At Any Rate

Global FX: Deep-dive into global FX hedge ratios

FX hedge ratios and the long dollar positioning of global investors, particularly in US equities, highlight the need for market participants to...

At Any Rate

Global FX Derivatives: Thin Cushion. A Slippery Slope from Calm to Uncertainty

For the next month and a half, FX volumes are expected to remain steady before a possible increase in late Q3, with dollar performance likely to...

At Any Rate

Global FX: Mid-Year Outlook - Tell me something new

The decoupling of the dollar view from US rates and equities is expected, with a focus on Japan flows and the upcoming upper house election...

At Any Rate

Best Ideas of 2025

The range of ideas is broad. The smallest market cap is a $15MM Canadian micro-cap that is trading below its net cash, and the largest is an $25BN...

Richard Howe

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