Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Carry remains the name of the game for intervening spreads in the first half of 2026, although valuations have become even more expensive</li><li>Geopolitical tensions and US policy uncertainty have led to caution on carry exposures due to crowded positioning and limited risk-adjusted returns</li><li>Increasing demand for EU bonds and EGBs suggests a gradual diversification away from USD markets, with attractive yields in the 10-year and longer sectors for long-term investors</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Carry remains the name of the game for intervening spreads in the first half of 2026, although valuations have become even more expensiveGeopolitical tensions and US policy uncertainty have led to caution on carry exposures due to crowded positioning and limited risk-adjusted returnsIncreasing demand for EU bonds and EGBs suggests a gradual diversification away from USD markets, with attractive yields in the 10-year and longer sectors for long-term investorsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

European Rates – Less keen on carry, UK political noise but no signal

<ul><li>Global team focusing on what's new for 2026 in terms of market outlook</li><li>Bullish on Eurodollar, expecting more modest gains due to US resilience</li><li>Dollar maintains yield supremacy, but new cyclical currencies emerging as carry efficient options for hedging volatility shocks</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global team focusing on what's new for 2026 in terms of market outlookBullish on Eurodollar, expecting more modest gains due to US resilienceDollar maintains yield supremacy, but new cyclical currencies emerging as carry efficient options for hedging volatility shocksThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX Outlook 2026: Bearish USD, Bullish Beta

<ul>
<li>The longer the US government shutdown continues, the more headwinds accumulate against the dollar and investor conviction remains low.</li>
<li>Despite near term uncertainty, a dollar bearish outlook is maintained, with a focus on outside the US pro-cyclical growth metrics.</li>
<li>Developments in US regional banks and escalating US-China trade tensions are key factors affecting global markets, with potential impacts on FX, risk events, and Eurodollar performance.</li>
</ul>
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


The longer the US government shutdown continues, the more headwinds accumulate against the dollar and investor conviction remains low.
Despite near term uncertainty, a dollar bearish outlook is maintained, with a focus on outside the US pro-cyclical growth metrics.
Developments in US regional banks and escalating US-China trade tensions are key factors affecting global markets, with potential impacts on FX, risk events, and Eurodollar performance.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX: Sailing the USD Bearish Ship in Murky Waters

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Currently in a highly pro-cyclical environment with strong growth forecasts and revisions</li><li>Risks for the dollar are skewed to the downside, particularly with Fed independence issues and potential tariff escalations</li><li>EM currencies are in overbought territory, with technical indicators suggesting extreme positive sentiment and consensus views</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Currently in a highly pro-cyclical environment with strong growth forecasts and revisionsRisks for the dollar are skewed to the downside, particularly with Fed independence issues and potential tariff escalationsEM currencies are in overbought territory, with technical indicators suggesting extreme positive sentiment and consensus viewsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX: Bearish USD vs. EM FX risk appetite index, G10 cyclicals and the Fed

<ul><li>Cross currency basis tend to move in unison globally but divergences exist due to monetary policy and cross border issuances</li><li>Markets are pricing in excessive rate cuts by the Fed, creating a discrepancy with economist forecasts</li><li>Fed's balance sheet dynamics, including T bill purchases, are expected to support money market rates and USD market financing conditions</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Cross currency basis tend to move in unison globally but divergences exist due to monetary policy and cross border issuancesMarkets are pricing in excessive rate cuts by the Fed, creating a discrepancy with economist forecastsFed's balance sheet dynamics, including T bill purchases, are expected to support money market rates and USD market financing conditionsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global Rates: Cross currency basis 1H26 outlook

United States

The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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USD (USD CURNCY)

European Rates – Less keen on carry, UK political noise but no signal

In the first half of 2026, carry trading remains prominent in the market amid increasing valuations and cautious trading in EGBs and SSA spreads,...

At Any Rate

Global FX Outlook 2026: Bearish USD, Bullish Beta

Global team predicts euro dollar to rise to 116-118 in the near term, with a narrower dollar weakening compared to 2025, while offering efficient...

At Any Rate

Global FX: Sailing the USD Bearish Ship in Murky Waters

Overall, uncertainty surrounding US dynamics, the government shutdown, trade tensions, and regional bank issues are impacting the dollar and global...

At Any Rate

Global FX: Bearish USD vs. EM FX risk appetite index, G10 cyclicals and the Fed

Macro data indicates a pro-cyclical environment with strong growth, supported by fiscal and monetary policy easing, while potential risks such as...

At Any Rate

Global Rates: Cross currency basis 1H26 outlook

Global cross currency basis movements are influenced by monetary policies, market expectations, and central bank actions, with current factors...

At Any Rate

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