Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>Dollar long positions have been reduced by 40% since the end of May, leading to a weakening dollar and higher US yields</li>
<li>Market focus is shifting to the US with upcoming events like payrolls, CPI, and FOMC meeting, where inflation and Fed projections will be key factors in determining FX trades</li>
<li>Potential for changes in Fed's dot projections and neutral rate could also impact market reactions to FOMC meeting outcomes</li>
</ul>
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Dollar long positions have been reduced by 40% since the end of May, leading to a weakening dollar and higher US yields
Market focus is shifting to the US with upcoming events like payrolls, CPI, and FOMC meeting, where inflation and Fed projections will be key factors in determining FX trades
Potential for changes in Fed's dot projections and neutral rate could also impact market reactions to FOMC meeting outcomes

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX: G10 Central Bank Meetings and Read-Across for Currencies

<ul><li>Strong dollar not seen as a problem for the US or the Fed, more concerning for the rest of the world</li><li>Unlikely to see coordinated global intervention due to high hurdles and lack of exceptional circumstances</li><li>Dollar CNY stability due to PBOC holding it down, may welcome cooling pressures on the currency from Japan and Korea verbal interventions</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Strong dollar not seen as a problem for the US or the Fed, more concerning for the rest of the worldUnlikely to see coordinated global intervention due to high hurdles and lack of exceptional circumstancesDollar CNY stability due to PBOC holding it down, may welcome cooling pressures on the currency from Japan and Korea verbal interventionsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX: A Strong Dollar Is Not a US Problem

<ul><li>Powell's dovish tone at the press conference led to initial market reaction, but subsequent dollar rally due to revised growth and inflation forecasts in the SCP release</li><li>Market leaning towards higher median dot in SCP, but overall outlook remains for shallower cutting cycle by Fed</li><li>Yen vulnerability due to negative real yields despite BOJ rate hikes, yen weakening may impact other Asian currencies and markets</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Powell's dovish tone at the press conference led to initial market reaction, but subsequent dollar rally due to revised growth and inflation forecasts in the SCP releaseMarket leaning towards higher median dot in SCP, but overall outlook remains for shallower cutting cycle by FedYen vulnerability due to negative real yields despite BOJ rate hikes, yen weakening may impact other Asian currencies and marketsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX: An Uncomfortable Setup for USD Bulls and Bears

<ul><li>The Federal Reserve was expected to announce tapering of quantitative tightening (QT) in March and implement it in April, but recent minutes suggest a more relaxed approach with no urgency to start the process soon.</li><li>SOFR rates have trended lower in January, easing concerns over upward pressure, and there is plenty of liquidity in the marketplace, with significant RRP and reserve balances.</li><li>Forecasting for the Fed's balance sheet evolution suggests a less volatile TGA balance and a shift in the relationship between t-bill issuance and RRP balances, leading to a more stable scenario for reserves in the near term.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

The Federal Reserve was expected to announce tapering of quantitative tightening (QT) in March and implement it in April, but recent minutes suggest a more relaxed approach with no urgency to start the process soon.SOFR rates have trended lower in January, easing concerns over upward pressure, and there is plenty of liquidity in the marketplace, with significant RRP and reserve balances.Forecasting for the Fed's balance sheet evolution suggests a less volatile TGA balance and a shift in the relationship between t-bill issuance and RRP balances, leading to a more stable scenario for reserves in the near term.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

US Rates: Slowly but Surely, Pushing Back the QT Taper Timeline

<ul><li>Dollar trading sideways due to tariff premium and mature Fed easing expectations</li><li>RBNZ meeting expectations uncertain, market pricing in hike but unlikely outcome</li><li>Kiwi may rally temporarily if RBNZ sounds hawkish, but long-term growth outlook remains uncertain</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Dollar trading sideways due to tariff premium and mature Fed easing expectationsRBNZ meeting expectations uncertain, market pricing in hike but unlikely outcomeKiwi may rally temporarily if RBNZ sounds hawkish, but long-term growth outlook remains uncertainThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

United States

The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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USD (USD CURNCY)

Global FX: G10 Central Bank Meetings and Read-Across for Currencies

The dollar has weakened as investors reduce long positions, and market focus shifts to upcoming US data and the Federal Reserve's actions.

At Any Rate

Global FX: A Strong Dollar Is Not a US Problem

The strong dollar is not a major concern for the US or the Federal Reserve, but could pose challenges for the rest of the world, making coordinated...

At Any Rate

Global FX: An Uncomfortable Setup for USD Bulls and Bears

The dovish tone from Powell led to a dollar rally, with potential future rate hikes and mixed signals for FX traders, particularly impacting Asian...

At Any Rate

US Rates: Slowly but Surely, Pushing Back the QT Taper Timeline

Overall, the Federal Reserve did not make any changes to Quantitative Tightening in March, with forecasts suggesting that RRP and reserves will...

At Any Rate

Global FX: Give me a (range) break

The dollar is trading sideways amid tariff concerns and matured Fed easing expectations, while markets are primed for the RBNZ meeting next week,...

At Any Rate

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