Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>December core goods CPI inflation remained flat, below expectations</li>
<li>Market fixings imply a strong January print, but future inflation expectations may face challenges</li>
<li>Euro area continues to face ongoing disinflation, with breakevens expected to remain within range in the near term</li>
</ul>
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


December core goods CPI inflation remained flat, below expectations
Market fixings imply a strong January print, but future inflation expectations may face challenges
Euro area continues to face ongoing disinflation, with breakevens expected to remain within range in the near term

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

<ul><li>Carry remains the name of the game for intervening spreads in the first half of 2026, although valuations have become even more expensive</li><li>Geopolitical tensions and US policy uncertainty have led to caution on carry exposures due to crowded positioning and limited risk-adjusted returns</li><li>Increasing demand for EU bonds and EGBs suggests a gradual diversification away from USD markets, with attractive yields in the 10-year and longer sectors for long-term investors</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Carry remains the name of the game for intervening spreads in the first half of 2026, although valuations have become even more expensiveGeopolitical tensions and US policy uncertainty have led to caution on carry exposures due to crowded positioning and limited risk-adjusted returnsIncreasing demand for EU bonds and EGBs suggests a gradual diversification away from USD markets, with attractive yields in the 10-year and longer sectors for long-term investorsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

European Rates – Less keen on carry, UK political noise but no signal

Macro, FX and Rates Strategist

Ishaan Dev Kapoor

<ul>
<li>The EUR/USD seagull was salvaged at 3 pips against 19.5 paid after the 16 September hike, having been marked +181% on 21 August. The USD/INR short expired flat at 95.98.</li>
<li>The euro trade paid on fiscal dominance, not the US front end we entered on. We overrode the Iran exit rule because we read misread a three-week regime</li>
<li>FCNR carried the INR through a 20% rise in oil, but faltered as prices soared 37%. We still see US disinflation in the data, and think 3 hikes are rich.</li>
</ul>


The EUR/USD seagull was salvaged at 3 pips against 19.5 paid after the 16 September hike, having been marked +181% on 21 August. The USD/INR short expired flat at 95.98.
The euro trade paid on fiscal dominance, not the US front end we entered on. We overrode the Iran exit rule because we read misread a three-week regime
FCNR carried the INR through a 20% rise in oil, but faltered as prices soared 37%. We still see US disinflation in the data, and think 3 hikes are rich.


Learnings from Two Short-Dollar Positions in an Oil Crisis

<ul><li>Global team focusing on what's new for 2026 in terms of market outlook</li><li>Bullish on Eurodollar, expecting more modest gains due to US resilience</li><li>Dollar maintains yield supremacy, but new cyclical currencies emerging as carry efficient options for hedging volatility shocks</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global team focusing on what's new for 2026 in terms of market outlookBullish on Eurodollar, expecting more modest gains due to US resilienceDollar maintains yield supremacy, but new cyclical currencies emerging as carry efficient options for hedging volatility shocksThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX Outlook 2026: Bearish USD, Bullish Beta

<ul>
<li>The longer the US government shutdown continues, the more headwinds accumulate against the dollar and investor conviction remains low.</li>
<li>Despite near term uncertainty, a dollar bearish outlook is maintained, with a focus on outside the US pro-cyclical growth metrics.</li>
<li>Developments in US regional banks and escalating US-China trade tensions are key factors affecting global markets, with potential impacts on FX, risk events, and Eurodollar performance.</li>
</ul>
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


The longer the US government shutdown continues, the more headwinds accumulate against the dollar and investor conviction remains low.
Despite near term uncertainty, a dollar bearish outlook is maintained, with a focus on outside the US pro-cyclical growth metrics.
Developments in US regional banks and escalating US-China trade tensions are key factors affecting global markets, with potential impacts on FX, risk events, and Eurodollar performance.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX: Sailing the USD Bearish Ship in Murky Waters

United States

The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Global Rates - Monthly Inflation Outlook

Data analysis shows soft reading in December, with core goods CPI inflation flat but expected to be main source of sticky inflation in 2026, market...

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European Rates – Less keen on carry, UK political noise but no signal

In the first half of 2026, carry trading remains prominent in the market amid increasing valuations and cautious trading in EGBs and SSA spreads,...

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Learnings from Two Short-Dollar Positions in an Oil Crisis

Post-mortem on two short-dollar trades through the oil shock: a EUR/USD seagull salvaged at −85% and a flat USD/INR short. What paid, which exit...

Ishaan Dev Kapoor

Global FX Outlook 2026: Bearish USD, Bullish Beta

Global team predicts euro dollar to rise to 116-118 in the near term, with a narrower dollar weakening compared to 2025, while offering efficient...

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Global FX: Sailing the USD Bearish Ship in Murky Waters

Overall, uncertainty surrounding US dynamics, the government shutdown, trade tensions, and regional bank issues are impacting the dollar and global...

At Any Rate

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