High Conviction Concentrated Growth Investing, Fallacy Alarm

Fallacy Alarm

High Conviction Concentrated Growth Investing

High conviction concentrated growth investing. Blends single stock, macro and thematic research into powerful long and short ideas. I am convinced that a robust and comprehensive investment process requires macro and micro considerations. And it requires a deep understanding what you are looking for and what you are invested in. Digitization has changed the dynamics both how businesses operate and how investors compete for returns. Ideas can scale much faster and fail much faster than before. The biggest value creation happens before it can be spotted in financial statements. As a result, my approach can be best summarized as high conviction, high concentration growth investing, embedded into a macro framework built on the realization that our current demographic set-up, monetary paradigm and innovation cycle will likely deliver a strong decade for nominal and real returns of productive assets.

Technical Analysis

<ul><li>Since late 2023, Momentum has been outperforming all other investment factors with a persistency and a dominance that has rarely been observed before.</li><li>The convergence of three feedback loops makes that possible.</li><li>Interest Loop: Interest expenses are now accounting for 60% of the Treasury’s deficit.</li></ul>

Since late 2023, Momentum has been outperforming all other investment factors with a persistency and a dominance that has rarely been observed before.The convergence of three feedback loops makes that possible.Interest Loop: Interest expenses are now accounting for 60% of the Treasury’s deficit.

Decoding the Future of MENA Financial Markets, MENA Market Lab

Denis Collot

Decoding the Future of MENA Financial Markets

MENA Market Lab

Decoding the future of Middle East and North Africa Financial markets

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Non-oil PMIs recover in the region.</li><li>Neom has budgeted 16 bn $ over four years to terminate long-term contracts.</li><li>Saudi banks’ NFA improve on government entities’ foreign currency deposits. Saudi FX, forty years of peg at 3.75 !</li></ul>

Non-oil PMIs recover in the region.Neom has budgeted 16 bn $ over four years to terminate long-term contracts.Saudi banks’ NFA improve on government entities’ foreign currency deposits. Saudi FX, forty years of peg at 3.75 !

<ul><li>The net foreign assets of the banking sector rose in April. Record high remittances in March with 5.5 bn $.</li><li>Non-oil PMI a fraction higher but still below 50.</li><li>Hearing news of incoming missiles in Israel and jet attacks over Tehran.</li></ul>

The net foreign assets of the banking sector rose in April. Record high remittances in March with 5.5 bn $.Non-oil PMI a fraction higher but still below 50.Hearing news of incoming missiles in Israel and jet attacks over Tehran.

<ul>
<li>GCC FX markets in a quiet torpor with Eid holidays and Trump’s prevarications.              </li>
<li>Riyad Bank’s chief economist says deposit growth supports credit growth.</li>
<li>Dubai’s property sales rebound in April.</li>
</ul>


GCC FX markets in a quiet torpor with Eid holidays and Trump’s prevarications.              
Riyad Bank’s chief economist says deposit growth supports credit growth.
Dubai’s property sales rebound in April.


<ul>
<li>CBE leaves rates unchanged at last MPC meeting.</li>
<li>The IMF revises its growth forecasts from 4.7 to 4.2 %.</li>
<li>Debt servicing consumes 76 % of revenues, down from 84 % a year ago. An unexpected 3-year bond auction raises 120bn EGP. Probably one man !</li>
</ul>


CBE leaves rates unchanged at last MPC meeting.
The IMF revises its growth forecasts from 4.7 to 4.2 %.
Debt servicing consumes 76 % of revenues, down from 84 % a year ago. An unexpected 3-year bond auction raises 120bn EGP. Probably one man !


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Momentum Trifecta

Since late 2023, Momentum has been outperforming all other investment factors with a persistency and a dominance that has rarely been observed before.

Fallacy Alarm

Middle East FX, June 9th 2026

Non-oil PMIs recover in the region. Neom has budgeted 16 bn $ over four years to terminate long-term contracts. Saudi banks’ NFA improve on...

MENA Market Lab

Egypt (June 8th 2026)

The net foreign assets of the banking sector rose in April. Record high remittances in March with 5.5 bn $. Non-oil PMI a fraction higher but...

MENA Market Lab

Middle East FX (May 29th 2026)

GCC FX markets in a quiet torpor with Eid holidays and Trump’s prevarications.Riyad Bank’s chief economist says deposit growth supports credit growth.

MENA Market Lab

Egypt, May 26th, 2026

CBE leaves rates unchanged at last MPC meeting. The IMF revises its growth forecasts from 4.7 to 4.2 %. Debt servicing consumes 76 % of revenues,...

MENA Market Lab

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