Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Welcome to this extremely table- and chart-heavy EUR-flation update.</li><li>Based on extensive public demand, we have updated our inflation models for all of the big four in the Euro zone and we reach the conclusion that the ECB is off by &gt;1%-point and potentially more by March-2024.</li><li>After having updated our models, we see March HICP printing at 1.84% versus ECB at 2.9% (Q1-average) and a market pricing of 2.25% (or thereabout), which basically leaves inflation below target before the end of the quarter.</li></ul>

Welcome to this extremely table- and chart-heavy EUR-flation update.Based on extensive public demand, we have updated our inflation models for all of the big four in the Euro zone and we reach the conclusion that the ECB is off by &gt;1%-point and potentially more by March-2024.After having updated our models, we see March HICP printing at 1.84% versus ECB at 2.9% (Q1-average) and a market pricing of 2.25% (or thereabout), which basically leaves inflation below target before the end of the quarter.

EUR-Flation Watch: Why the ECB Is off by Miles in the Q1 Forecast

Podcast by Joe Weisenthal & Tracy Alloway, Odd Lots

Odd Lots

Podcast by Joe Weisenthal & Tracy Alloway

Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday.

<ul><li>The hosts discuss the long-standing concern over the risk of conflict between China and Taiwan, which has been a topic of speculation for many years.</li><li>They note that recent events, such as the tensions between Russia and Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas conflict, have heightened concerns about the prospect of a hot conflict in the future.</li><li>The importance of Taiwan's economy and its role in global supply chains, particularly in the semiconductor industry, has made the potential disruption of these supply chains a major concern for the world. This, in turn, may give China more incentive to assert its position on the Taiwan issue.</li></ul>This podcast is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

The hosts discuss the long-standing concern over the risk of conflict between China and Taiwan, which has been a topic of speculation for many years.They note that recent events, such as the tensions between Russia and Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas conflict, have heightened concerns about the prospect of a hot conflict in the future.The importance of Taiwan's economy and its role in global supply chains, particularly in the semiconductor industry, has made the potential disruption of these supply chains a major concern for the world. This, in turn, may give China more incentive to assert its position on the Taiwan issue.This podcast is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

The Massive Economic Impact If China Invades Taiwan

<ul>
<li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning overview.</li>
<li>We’ve been working on some new ways to look at positioning data across asset classes, and we’ll share some of the inaugural charts in today’s piece and will extend them, week by week.</li>
<li>Markets have more or less traded sideways since the start of the year, as the risk-on party has taken a bit of a breather it seems, despite rate cut expectations becoming even more embedded after the hawkish US CPI surprise last Thursday – strange move, and we’ll be surprised if probabilities don’t reverse within the next couple of price data points.</li>
</ul>


Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning overview.
We’ve been working on some new ways to look at positioning data across asset classes, and we’ll share some of the inaugural charts in today’s piece and will extend them, week by week.
Markets have more or less traded sideways since the start of the year, as the risk-on party has taken a bit of a breather it seems, despite rate cut expectations becoming even more embedded after the hawkish US CPI surprise last Thursday – strange move, and we’ll be surprised if probabilities don’t reverse within the next couple of price data points.


Positioning Watch – Where to Find Value Currently

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Trump is likely to win a substantial victory in the Iowa caucuses, with the real contest being for second place between Haley and DeSantis, with the latter banking on Iowa.</li>
<li>In the New Hampshire primary, Haley has closed the gap with Trump, to near a dead-heat with Christie's withdrawal. A post-Iowa withdrawal by DeSantis would mean "Advantage Haley' in NH. </li>
<li>Haley will likely win at home (South Carolina), with that momentum reducing Trump's huge organizational advantage on Super Tuesday. A 2-horse GOP race is market-positive, promising a less chaotic outcome.  </li>
</ul>


Trump is likely to win a substantial victory in the Iowa caucuses, with the real contest being for second place between Haley and DeSantis, with the latter banking on Iowa.
In the New Hampshire primary, Haley has closed the gap with Trump, to near a dead-heat with Christie's withdrawal. A post-Iowa withdrawal by DeSantis would mean "Advantage Haley' in NH. 
Haley will likely win at home (South Carolina), with that momentum reducing Trump's huge organizational advantage on Super Tuesday. A 2-horse GOP race is market-positive, promising a less chaotic outcome.  


US: Haley Leads Biden by 8pp; Iowa Could Make It a Trump-Haley GOP Contest

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

<ul>
<li>Core PCE rose 0.3% on the month and 3.9% over a year ago, showing signs of stickiness since last year.</li>
<li>The yield curve has steepened and two-year yields have fallen dramatically, indicating market response to the softer implications for core PCE.</li>
<li>Differences in calculation methods and components of CPI and PCE contribute to the wedge between the two measures, with shelter inflation and medical insurance costs being key factors. Non-market prices, particularly in services, are running below market prices for core PCE.</li>
</ul>
This podcast is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.


Core PCE rose 0.3% on the month and 3.9% over a year ago, showing signs of stickiness since last year.
The yield curve has steepened and two-year yields have fallen dramatically, indicating market response to the softer implications for core PCE.
Differences in calculation methods and components of CPI and PCE contribute to the wedge between the two measures, with shelter inflation and medical insurance costs being key factors. Non-market prices, particularly in services, are running below market prices for core PCE.

This podcast is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

US Rates: Takeaways from December inflation and Red Sea trade disruptions

United States

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EUR-Flation Watch: Why the ECB Is off by Miles in the Q1 Forecast

After having updated our models, we see March HICP printing at 1.84% versus ECB at 2.9% (Q1-average) and a market pricing of 2.25% (or thereabout)

Steno Research

The Massive Economic Impact If China Invades Taiwan

In this podcast episode, the hosts introduce themselves, discuss the recurring risk between China and Taiwan, acknowledge their past incorrect...

Odd Lots

Positioning Watch – Where to Find Value Currently

Markets have more or less traded sideways since the start of the year, as the risk-on party has taken a bit of a breather it seems, despite rate...

Steno Research

US: Haley Leads Biden by 8pp; Iowa Could Make It a Trump-Haley GOP Contest

DeSantis bet the bank on Iowa. If Haley beats him to 2nd there, he's likely to withdraw. Haley then will likely beat Trump in NH & SC, reducing...

Prasenjit K. Basu

US Rates: Takeaways from December inflation and Red Sea trade disruptions

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) both experienced increases in core inflation, with CPI being higher due...

At Any Rate

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)