IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uzabase-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27798:1" rel="noopener">Uzabase Inc (3966 JP)</a> has recommended <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carlyle-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33402:1" rel="noopener">Carlyle Group Inc (CG US)</a>’s tender offer of JPY1,500 per share, a 72.2% premium to the undisturbed price (9 November).</li>
<li>The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the offer has been set to meet the 66.67% ownership ratio.</li>
<li>The offer is reasonable. The offer ends on 22 December. Tendering shares represent a 27.94% ownership ratio. At the last close, the gross spread to the offer is 46.9%.</li>
</ul>



Uzabase Inc (3966 JP) has recommended Carlyle Group Inc (CG US)’s tender offer of JPY1,500 per share, a 72.2% premium to the undisturbed price (9 November).
The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the offer has been set to meet the 66.67% ownership ratio.
The offer is reasonable. The offer ends on 22 December. Tendering shares represent a 27.94% ownership ratio. At the last close, the gross spread to the offer is 46.9%.


Uzabase’s (3966 JP) JPY1,500 Tender Offer from Carlyle

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Carlyle has launched a bid for business news and data service owner <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uzabase-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27798:1" rel="noopener">Uzabase Inc (3966 JP)</a>. The bid is far below the price of a couple years ago. </li>
<li>But the price clears the 2022 high by 1 tick. Some will be OK with this, but some may not be. </li>
<li>At a 72% premium, optically it appears attractive, but given circumstances, it is not a total knockout, though I don't know who would come in.</li>
</ul>


Carlyle has launched a bid for business news and data service owner Uzabase Inc (3966 JP). The bid is far below the price of a couple years ago. 
But the price clears the 2022 high by 1 tick. Some will be OK with this, but some may not be. 
At a 72% premium, optically it appears attractive, but given circumstances, it is not a total knockout, though I don't know who would come in.


Uzabase (3966) Agrees to Carlyle Takeover

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<div>
<ul>
<li>Money Forward’s stock price declined by 12% on the day following a weak Q3 earnings release. </li>
<li>
 The weaker revenue print was partially due to the lumpiness of revenue recognition in MF X (technology solutions), and lower ARPA growth in the core MF Business domain.  
</li>
<li>
We take a deeper look at the underlying SaaS metrics for MF Business and note some slowing in key KPIs.  
</li>
<li>
Nevertheless, we believe that the company is well placed to target mid-sized companies, which will ultimately drive higher ARR growth.   
</li>
<li>Even assuming a weaker NTM growth of 25%, we see 30% upside for the share price</li>
</ul>
</div>



Money Forward’s stock price declined by 12% on the day following a weak Q3 earnings release. 

 The weaker revenue print was partially due to the lumpiness of revenue recognition in MF X (technology solutions), and lower ARPA growth in the core MF Business domain.  


We take a deeper look at the underlying SaaS metrics for MF Business and note some slowing in key KPIs.  


Nevertheless, we believe that the company is well placed to target mid-sized companies, which will ultimately drive higher ARR growth.   

Even assuming a weaker NTM growth of 25%, we see 30% upside for the share price



Money Forward (3994) - 30% Upside Despite Slower Growth

Japan

Uzabase Inc is an online financial data service provider aimed for BtoB clients. The company provides   related business news, financial report data, stock price data as well as a wide range of industrial analysis reports through its business platform called SPEEDA and NewsPicks.

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Uzabase Inc (3966 JP)

Uzabase’s (3966 JP) JPY1,500 Tender Offer from Carlyle

The tender offer is reasonable and ends on 22 December. The lower limit of the offer has been set at a 66.67% ownership ratio. At the last close,...

Arun George

Uzabase (3966) Agrees to Carlyle Takeover

Uzabase (3966) has agreed to a 72% premium bid by Carlyle. Some large foreign holders bought in early, and have been bailing this year. Others...

Travis Lundy

Money Forward (3994) - 30% Upside Despite Slower Growth

We take a deeper look at the underlying SaaS metrics for MF Business and note some slowing in key KPIs. Even so, on a more conservative growth...

Mark Chadwick

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