Iron Ore, Copper, Equities, Mint Finance

Umang Agrawal

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Rising seaborne supply and weak Chinese steel margins dragged iron ore lower, though resilient blast furnace activity continue to offer support.</li>
<li>BHP slows Pilbara decarbonisation while Fortescue accelerates ahead, highlighting a widening divide in Australia’s iron ore transition strategy.</li>
<li>Iron ore’s downtrend remains intact after a bearish crossover, though prices nearing key support could trigger a short-term rebound attempt.</li>
</ul>


Rising seaborne supply and weak Chinese steel margins dragged iron ore lower, though resilient blast furnace activity continue to offer support.
BHP slows Pilbara decarbonisation while Fortescue accelerates ahead, highlighting a widening divide in Australia’s iron ore transition strategy.
Iron ore’s downtrend remains intact after a bearish crossover, though prices nearing key support could trigger a short-term rebound attempt.


Iron Ore Sentiment Stays Fragile but a Key Technical Support Is Cushioning the Pullback

<ul>
<li>Rising Chinese port arrivals and softer steel production continue to weigh on iron ore fundamentals despite resilient hot metal output.</li>
<li>Iron ore’s recent rally is increasingly losing technical conviction, with momentum indicators now aligning toward a more defensive near-term setup.</li>
<li>Managed money participants remain selectively bullish on iron ore, though persistent short buildup highlights lingering caution around China demand and market volatility.</li>
</ul>


Rising Chinese port arrivals and softer steel production continue to weigh on iron ore fundamentals despite resilient hot metal output.
Iron ore’s recent rally is increasingly losing technical conviction, with momentum indicators now aligning toward a more defensive near-term setup.
Managed money participants remain selectively bullish on iron ore, though persistent short buildup highlights lingering caution around China demand and market volatility.


Rebuilding Supply-Side Pressure Is Strengthening Bearish Conviction in Iron Ore

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We had a near-term bullish outlook on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) from 4/22/25 to 11/18/25.</li>
<li>After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 Compass, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $135.70 on ACWI-US continue to hold. </li>
</ul>


We had a near-term bullish outlook on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) from 4/22/25 to 11/18/25.
After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 Compass, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $135.70 on ACWI-US continue to hold. 


"Lockout Rally" Underway; Downgrading China to Market Weight; Weak U.S. Dollar Is Risk-On Signal

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>In our prior Int'l Compass (Oct. 16) we discussed how the pullback was testing the uptrend, and we were buyers; this worked out well with indexes back at all-time highs.</li>
<li>Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S. remain our only overweights, but India is becoming more attractive as well -- add selective exposure. Many buy ideas highlighted in these countries.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
In our prior Int'l Compass (Oct. 16) we discussed how the pullback was testing the uptrend, and we were buyers; this worked out well with indexes back at all-time highs.
Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S. remain our only overweights, but India is becoming more attractive as well -- add selective exposure. Many buy ideas highlighted in these countries.


India Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>China, India, Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan remain key underweights.  Recovery in Malaysia, Thailand, Turkey, and South Africa, correction in Indonesia and Mexico. Developed Markets the largest overweight for EM investors.</li>
<li>Discretionary, Staples, and Industrials the key overweights, Materials and Energy the underweights. Rotation out of Tech moves positioning from overweight to underweight for the first time since 2019.</li>
<li>Ownership climbs for Meituan and SK Hynix, Baidu and Yum China see sharp declines. Downtrends persist in Vale, Telkom Indonesia.  Recovery in SK Telekom, Garanti Bank, highs in Emaar Properties. </li>
</ul>


China, India, Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan remain key underweights.  Recovery in Malaysia, Thailand, Turkey, and South Africa, correction in Indonesia and Mexico. Developed Markets the largest overweight for EM investors.
Discretionary, Staples, and Industrials the key overweights, Materials and Energy the underweights. Rotation out of Tech moves positioning from overweight to underweight for the first time since 2019.
Ownership climbs for Meituan and SK Hynix, Baidu and Yum China see sharp declines. Downtrends persist in Vale, Telkom Indonesia.  Recovery in SK Telekom, Garanti Bank, highs in Emaar Properties. 


Brazil

Vale S.A. is a Brazilian multinational corporation engaged in metals and mining, and one of the largest logistics operators in Brazil. It is a leading producer of iron ore and nickel, also extracting copper, manganese, and ferroalloys. The company was founded in 1942 and is headquartered in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

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Vale (VALE5 BZ)

Iron Ore Sentiment Stays Fragile but a Key Technical Support Is Cushioning the Pullback

Iron ore markets remain under pressure from rising seaborne supply and weak Chinese steel margins, while technical indicators continue to point...

Mint Finance

Rebuilding Supply-Side Pressure Is Strengthening Bearish Conviction in Iron Ore

Chinese port arrivals and softer steel production are impacting iron ore fundamentals, with a recent rally losing technical conviction.

Mint Finance

"Lockout Rally" Underway; Downgrading China to Market Weight; Weak U.S. Dollar Is Risk-On Signal

"Lockout Rally" Underway $ACWI; Downgrading China $MCHI $FXI to Market Weight; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Providing Significant Risk-On Signal. Remain...

Vermilion Research

India Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

India's $SENSEX Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI; Actionable...

Vermilion Research

Active GEM Funds: Positioning Chart Pack

In this chart pack, we highlight the key country, sector and stock exposures among active Emerging Markets equity funds.

Steven Holden

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Iron Ore Sentiment Stays Fragile but a Key Technical Support Is Cushioning the Pullback

Iron ore markets remain under pressure from rising seaborne supply and weak Chinese steel margins, while technical indicators continue to point...

Mint Finance

Rebuilding Supply-Side Pressure Is Strengthening Bearish Conviction in Iron Ore

​Chinese port arrivals and softer steel production are impacting iron ore fundamentals, with a recent rally losing technical conviction.

Mint Finance

"Lockout Rally" Underway; Downgrading China to Market Weight; Weak U.S. Dollar Is Risk-On Signal

"Lockout Rally" Underway $ACWI; Downgrading China $MCHI $FXI to Market Weight; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Providing Significant Risk-On Signal. Remain...

Vermilion Research

India Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

India's $SENSEX Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI; Actionable...

Vermilion Research

Active GEM Funds: Positioning Chart Pack

In this chart pack, we highlight the key country, sector and stock exposures among active Emerging Markets equity funds.

Steven Holden

Chinese port arrivals and softer steel production are impacting iron ore fundamentals, with a recent rally losing technical conviction.