Iron Ore, Copper, Equities, Mint Finance

Umang Agrawal

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Iron ore declined as traders cut positions before Lunar New Year, while near-record Chinese inventories and softer mill activity weighed on demand.</li>
<li>BHP delivered strong H1 performance, with revenue and earnings rising sharply, while an above-consensus dividend signalled strong cash generation and shareholder returns. </li>
<li>Bearish momentum is intensifying as MACD weakens further, volatility expands, and prices remain firmly pinned to the lower Bollinger Band.</li>
</ul>


Iron ore declined as traders cut positions before Lunar New Year, while near-record Chinese inventories and softer mill activity weighed on demand.
BHP delivered strong H1 performance, with revenue and earnings rising sharply, while an above-consensus dividend signalled strong cash generation and shareholder returns. 
Bearish momentum is intensifying as MACD weakens further, volatility expands, and prices remain firmly pinned to the lower Bollinger Band.


Iron Ore Retreat Extends as Seasonal Lull Meets Structural Selling Pressure

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

<ul>
<li>Iron ore fell 4.5% for the week ending 06/Feb as weak steel demand, rising Chinese port inventories, and a broader commodity risk-off sentiment outweighed steady blast furnace output.</li>
<li>BHP–Lundin’s Vicuña plans USD 800 million copper investment, Rio–Glencore talks collapsed, while Macquarie lifted Fortescue to Neutral.</li>
<li>SGX iron ore prices remain below short-term MAs but show signs of stabilisation, with Bollinger exhaustion and range formation pointing to a potential near-term rebound.</li>
</ul>


Iron ore fell 4.5% for the week ending 06/Feb as weak steel demand, rising Chinese port inventories, and a broader commodity risk-off sentiment outweighed steady blast furnace output.
BHP–Lundin’s Vicuña plans USD 800 million copper investment, Rio–Glencore talks collapsed, while Macquarie lifted Fortescue to Neutral.
SGX iron ore prices remain below short-term MAs but show signs of stabilisation, with Bollinger exhaustion and range formation pointing to a potential near-term rebound.


Iron Ore Under Pressure, but Positioning and Structure Point to Stabilisation

<ul>
<li>Seasonal Brazilian disruptions and Vale’s mine suspensions tighten supply, helping stabilise iron ore prices and limit near-term downside.</li>
<li>BHP reclaimed Australia’s top market cap spot and Morgan Stanley maintained bullish views, while staying cautious on Fortescue.</li>
<li>Bearish MA crossover keeps iron ore below key short-term MAs, but lower Bollinger Band support hints at rebound potential.</li>
</ul>


Seasonal Brazilian disruptions and Vale’s mine suspensions tighten supply, helping stabilise iron ore prices and limit near-term downside.
BHP reclaimed Australia’s top market cap spot and Morgan Stanley maintained bullish views, while staying cautious on Fortescue.
Bearish MA crossover keeps iron ore below key short-term MAs, but lower Bollinger Band support hints at rebound potential.


Weak Steel Demand Vs Supply Curbs, Where Does Iron Ore Go Next?

<ul>
<li>Simandou supply adds choice, accident headlines pressure sentiment, while restocking demand offsets rising inventories, keeping iron ore prices supported. </li>
<li>In H1 FY26, BHP’s iron ore output rose 2% YoY, but pricing headwinds from China negotiations highlight rising realisation risk despite unchanged FY26 output guidance.</li>
<li>After stalling near the upper Bollinger band, the DCE–SGX momentum has cooled but stays constructive, pointing to consolidation rather than reversal without fresh catalysts.</li>
</ul>


Simandou supply adds choice, accident headlines pressure sentiment, while restocking demand offsets rising inventories, keeping iron ore prices supported. 
In H1 FY26, BHP’s iron ore output rose 2% YoY, but pricing headwinds from China negotiations highlight rising realisation risk despite unchanged FY26 output guidance.
After stalling near the upper Bollinger band, the DCE–SGX momentum has cooled but stays constructive, pointing to consolidation rather than reversal without fresh catalysts.


Simandou Hits China, Momentum Softens: Is Iron Ore Entering a Buy-The-Dip Phase?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We had a near-term bullish outlook on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) from 4/22/25 to 11/18/25.</li>
<li>After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 Compass, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $135.70 on ACWI-US continue to hold. </li>
</ul>


We had a near-term bullish outlook on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) from 4/22/25 to 11/18/25.
After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 Compass, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $135.70 on ACWI-US continue to hold. 


"Lockout Rally" Underway; Downgrading China to Market Weight; Weak U.S. Dollar Is Risk-On Signal

Brazil

Vale S.A. is a Brazilian multinational corporation primarily engaged in metals and mining, and one of the largest logistics operators in Brazil. It is a leading global producer of iron ore and nickel, also producing copper, manganese, ferroalloys, and other base metals. The company operates integrated logistics systems including railways, maritime terminals, and ports. Headquartered in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, the company was founded in 1942.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Vale (VALE3 BR)

Iron Ore Retreat Extends as Seasonal Lull Meets Structural Selling Pressure

Iron ore markets face soft Chinese demand, miner disruptions, and entrenched technical weakness signaling sustained downside risk.

Mint Finance

Iron Ore Under Pressure, but Positioning and Structure Point to Stabilisation

Iron ore prices dropped due to weak steel demand and rising Chinese port inventories. Rio-Glencore talks collapsed. SGX iron ore prices show signs...

Mint Finance

Weak Steel Demand Vs Supply Curbs, Where Does Iron Ore Go Next?

Weak consumption, tightening supply, and cautious positioning collide as iron ore tests key support after a bearish crossover.

Mint Finance

Simandou Hits China, Momentum Softens: Is Iron Ore Entering a Buy-The-Dip Phase?

New supply headlines cool momentum, but supportive demand and positioning suggest consolidation first, with dip-buying interest emerging near...

Mint Finance

"Lockout Rally" Underway; Downgrading China to Market Weight; Weak U.S. Dollar Is Risk-On Signal

"Lockout Rally" Underway $ACWI; Downgrading China $MCHI $FXI to Market Weight; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Providing Significant Risk-On Signal. Remain...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Iron Ore Retreat Extends as Seasonal Lull Meets Structural Selling Pressure

Iron ore markets face soft Chinese demand, miner disruptions, and entrenched technical weakness signaling sustained downside risk.

Mint Finance

Iron Ore Under Pressure, but Positioning and Structure Point to Stabilisation

​Iron ore prices dropped due to weak steel demand and rising Chinese port inventories. Rio-Glencore talks collapsed. SGX iron ore prices show signs...

Mint Finance

Weak Steel Demand Vs Supply Curbs, Where Does Iron Ore Go Next?

Weak consumption, tightening supply, and cautious positioning collide as iron ore tests key support after a bearish crossover.

Mint Finance

Simandou Hits China, Momentum Softens: Is Iron Ore Entering a Buy-The-Dip Phase?

New supply headlines cool momentum, but supportive demand and positioning suggest consolidation first, with dip-buying interest emerging near...

Mint Finance

"Lockout Rally" Underway; Downgrading China to Market Weight; Weak U.S. Dollar Is Risk-On Signal

"Lockout Rally" Underway $ACWI; Downgrading China $MCHI $FXI to Market Weight; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Providing Significant Risk-On Signal. Remain...

Vermilion Research

Iron ore prices dropped due to weak steel demand and rising Chinese port inventories. Rio-Glencore talks collapsed. SGX iron ore prices show signs...