Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).</li>
<li>50-Day MAs have held on SPX and QQQ, but we are concerned of a prolonged consolidation -- particularly as crude oil, gasoline (UGA), and Energy (XLE) appear to have bottomed.</li>
<li>QQQ/Technology remains our primary concern; we continue to believe a consolidation through mid-to-late-August is likely amid ongoing choppy price action for semiconductors (SOXX), memory (DRAM), and optical equipment/photonics (EUV) names</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).
50-Day MAs have held on SPX and QQQ, but we are concerned of a prolonged consolidation -- particularly as crude oil, gasoline (UGA), and Energy (XLE) appear to have bottomed.
QQQ/Technology remains our primary concern; we continue to believe a consolidation through mid-to-late-August is likely amid ongoing choppy price action for semiconductors (SOXX), memory (DRAM), and optical equipment/photonics (EUV) names


Energy (XLE), Crude Oil, and Gasoline Prices Climbing; A Bull Market Until Proven Otherwise

Independent Energy Equities & Commodities Research, WHB Energy Research LLC

William H Brown III

Independent Energy Equities & Commodities Research

Independent energy equity and commodity boutique

WHB Energy Research LLC

WHB Energy Research LLC is an independent energy industry equity and commodity boutique
providing analysis and trading/investment recommendations to hedge funds, mutual funds, oil
and gas producing companies, energy consuming companies and high net worth individuals.
WHB Energy Research LLC fills a major void by providing top level fundamental and
qualitative research complemented by state of the art quantitative modeling. WHB Energy
Research LLC also engages in physical oil trading activity as an agent/intermediary and also
provides expert witness consultation and testimony. From 2003-2005 Mr. Brown established and
managed an energy hedge fund for a single investor/client. Specialties: Economic and financial
analysis and forecasting of the NYMEX, ICE, and international physical petroleum markets and
energy equities in the integrated, independent producer, refining, drilling, service, and
transportation sectors.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>NYMEX crude oil decided to emerge from its “funk,” with market participants reminded that the “free flow” through the Strait of Hormuz is not necessarily the status quo.     </li>
<li>Increasing our short Sep NYMEX RBOB hedge versus our long VLO and MPC positions was well timed, either by dumb luck or that RBOB cracks had become severely overvalued.     </li>
<li>In any event, while we were grateful for crude oil's recovery and our RBOB crack hedge doing what it is supposed to do, one day does not a trend make.    </li>
</ul>


NYMEX crude oil decided to emerge from its “funk,” with market participants reminded that the “free flow” through the Strait of Hormuz is not necessarily the status quo.     
Increasing our short Sep NYMEX RBOB hedge versus our long VLO and MPC positions was well timed, either by dumb luck or that RBOB cracks had become severely overvalued.     
In any event, while we were grateful for crude oil's recovery and our RBOB crack hedge doing what it is supposed to do, one day does not a trend make.    


Morning Market Notes: Deja Vu All Over Again? One Day Does Not Necessarily a Trend Make

<ul>
<li>Both our energy equities and the commodity are now exhibiting “behavior” suggesting a move on from the war.  </li>
<li>The latest weekly EIA data, while continuing to confirm our Base Case, may be suggesting that the period of sustainably large U.S. crude oil exports has come to an end.  </li>
<li>We increased our short Sept. NYMEX RBOB crack position as a hedge against our long VLO and MPC positions from 30% to 50%.  </li>
</ul>


Both our energy equities and the commodity are now exhibiting “behavior” suggesting a move on from the war.  
The latest weekly EIA data, while continuing to confirm our Base Case, may be suggesting that the period of sustainably large U.S. crude oil exports has come to an end.  
We increased our short Sept. NYMEX RBOB crack position as a hedge against our long VLO and MPC positions from 30% to 50%.  


Morning Market Notes: Our Energy Markets Are Moving On, But Refiners and Crack Spreads Bear Watching

<ul>
<li>Despite yesterday’s oil price gains, it was a “mixed bag” for our energy equities, with refiners the star performers as NMEX RBOB experienced a short squeeze ahead of expiration.</li>
<li>While our equities generated attractive rates of return in the first half of the year, investors may opt to turn back to tech and other sectors in the third quarter.</li>
<li>This is despite continued uncertainty regarding oil supplies and the Strait of Hormuz, since our stocks generally tend to discount future developments far in advance of the commodity.</li>
</ul>


Despite yesterday’s oil price gains, it was a “mixed bag” for our energy equities, with refiners the star performers as NMEX RBOB experienced a short squeeze ahead of expiration.
While our equities generated attractive rates of return in the first half of the year, investors may opt to turn back to tech and other sectors in the third quarter.
This is despite continued uncertainty regarding oil supplies and the Strait of Hormuz, since our stocks generally tend to discount future developments far in advance of the commodity.


Morning Market Notes: Third Quarter Likely More Challenging for Our Equities and the Commodity

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>The Hormuz blockade turned a crude shock into a product crisis; jet fuel doubled, distillate crack spreads hit 2022 highs, and U.S. Gulf Coast refiners ran at record utilisation.</li>
<li>U.S. refiners capitalised on global disruption, ramping utilisation and exports while Asian and European peers cut runs due to crude shortages.</li>
<li>U.S. refiners’ revenue to rise but EPS faces near-term pressure as crude cost inflation, hedge losses, and timing mismatches mean true margin capture likely shifts to Q2–Q3 2026.</li>
</ul>


The Hormuz blockade turned a crude shock into a product crisis; jet fuel doubled, distillate crack spreads hit 2022 highs, and U.S. Gulf Coast refiners ran at record utilisation.
U.S. refiners capitalised on global disruption, ramping utilisation and exports while Asian and European peers cut runs due to crude shortages.
U.S. refiners’ revenue to rise but EPS faces near-term pressure as crude cost inflation, hedge losses, and timing mismatches mean true margin capture likely shifts to Q2–Q3 2026.


The Refiner's Edge: How the War in Iran Aids U.S. Refining

United States

Valero Energy Corporation is an independent petroleum refining and marketing company that owns and operates refineries in the United States, Canada, and Aruba.  The Company produces conventional gasolines, distillates, jet fuel, asphalt, petrochemicals, lubricants, and other refined products as well as diesel fuel, low-sulfur and ultra-low-sulfur diesel fuel, and oxygenates.

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Valero Energy (VLO US)

Energy (XLE), Crude Oil, and Gasoline Prices Climbing; A Bull Market Until Proven Otherwise

Energy $XLE, Crude Oil, and Gasoline Prices Climbing; A Bull Market Until Proven Otherwise; Tech remains a concern, and we believe consolidation...

Vermilion Research

Morning Market Notes: Deja Vu All Over Again? One Day Does Not Necessarily a Trend Make

NYMEX crude oil emerges from "funk" as market participants reminded of potential disruptions in Strait of Hormuz; hedging VLO and MPC length,...

William H Brown III

Morning Market Notes: Our Energy Markets Are Moving On, But Refiners and Crack Spreads Bear Watching

Energy equities and commodities show signs of moving on from war, US crude oil exports may be decreasing, hedging positions increased for VLO and...

William H Brown III

Morning Market Notes: Third Quarter Likely More Challenging for Our Equities and the Commodity

Energy equities had a mixed day with refiners shining, but investors may turn to tech in the third quarter despite oil supply uncertainty.

William H Brown III

The Refiner's Edge: How the War in Iran Aids U.S. Refining

The Hormuz blockade led to a product crisis, with U.S. refiners capitalizing on global disruption while facing near-term EPS pressure due to crude...

Mint Finance

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52-week Range

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Energy (XLE), Crude Oil, and Gasoline Prices Climbing; A Bull Market Until Proven Otherwise

Energy $XLE, Crude Oil, and Gasoline Prices Climbing; A Bull Market Until Proven Otherwise; Tech remains a concern, and we believe consolidation...

Vermilion Research

Morning Market Notes: Deja Vu All Over Again? One Day Does Not Necessarily a Trend Make

​NYMEX crude oil emerges from "funk" as market participants reminded of potential disruptions in Strait of Hormuz; hedging VLO and MPC length,...

William H Brown III

Morning Market Notes: Our Energy Markets Are Moving On, But Refiners and Crack Spreads Bear Watching

​Energy equities and commodities show signs of moving on from war, US crude oil exports may be decreasing, hedging positions increased for VLO and...

William H Brown III

Morning Market Notes: Third Quarter Likely More Challenging for Our Equities and the Commodity

​Energy equities had a mixed day with refiners shining, but investors may turn to tech in the third quarter despite oil supply uncertainty.

William H Brown III

The Refiner's Edge: How the War in Iran Aids U.S. Refining

​The Hormuz blockade led to a product crisis, with U.S. refiners capitalizing on global disruption while facing near-term EPS pressure due to crude...

Mint Finance

NYMEX crude oil emerges from "funk" as market participants reminded of potential disruptions in Strait of Hormuz; hedging VLO and MPC length,...

Energy equities and commodities show signs of moving on from war, US crude oil exports may be decreasing, hedging positions increased for VLO and...

Energy equities had a mixed day with refiners shining, but investors may turn to tech in the third quarter despite oil supply uncertainty.

The Hormuz blockade led to a product crisis, with U.S. refiners capitalizing on global disruption while facing near-term EPS pressure due to crude...