Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook (as of our 3/3/26 Compass) remains near-term neutral on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), after being bullish for all but one week since 4/22/25 (we went neutral 11/19/25-11/25/25)</li>
<li>Concerns we discussed since early-February stemmed from deteriorating market dynamics, and ever since then we have been "concerned about a deeper pullback, likely to 6720-6776, 6690, or 6480-6520 on SPX."</li>
<li>SPX hit 6480-6520 support on Friday and yesterday (Monday), and the same can be said of Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ)which tested 24,000, and the Russell 2000 (IWM) which tested $245.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook (as of our 3/3/26 Compass) remains near-term neutral on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), after being bullish for all but one week since 4/22/25 (we went neutral 11/19/25-11/25/25)
Concerns we discussed since early-February stemmed from deteriorating market dynamics, and ever since then we have been "concerned about a deeper pullback, likely to 6720-6776, 6690, or 6480-6520 on SPX."
SPX hit 6480-6520 support on Friday and yesterday (Monday), and the same can be said of Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ)which tested 24,000, and the Russell 2000 (IWM) which tested $245.


<ul>
<li>Our outlook as of last week (3/3/26 Compass) remains near-term neutral on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), after being bullish for all but one week since 4/22/25 (we went neutral 11/19/25-11/25/25).</li>
<li>However, signs point to a local low being made yesterday after indexes went from heavily red, to firmly green as Trump signaled the war with Iran is nearing an end</li>
<li>Russell 2000 (IWM) held at 4+year base support $245 , S&amp;P 500 futures(ES) held at its 200-day MA and Nasdaq 100 futures(NQ) held above 6-month support at 24,000 late-Sunday night</li>
</ul>


Our outlook as of last week (3/3/26 Compass) remains near-term neutral on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), after being bullish for all but one week since 4/22/25 (we went neutral 11/19/25-11/25/25).
However, signs point to a local low being made yesterday after indexes went from heavily red, to firmly green as Trump signaled the war with Iran is nearing an end
Russell 2000 (IWM) held at 4+year base support $245 , S&amp;P 500 futures(ES) held at its 200-day MA and Nasdaq 100 futures(NQ) held above 6-month support at 24,000 late-Sunday night


Local Low in Place; Russell 2000 (IWM) Holds at $245; Semiconductors (SMH) Hold at $375

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>US crude inventories fell for the fifth consecutive week by 3.4 mb, exceeding the 1.6 mb decline expected by analysts. Gasoline stocks also decreased by 3.7 mb.</li>
<li>As of the week ending 26/Jul, US natural gas inventories were up 8.4% YoY and 15.7% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>European oil majors beat Q2 profit estimates. BP’s Q2 underlying net profit beat estimates by 7.7%. Shell’s Q2 EPS beat estimates by 5.1%. </li>
</ul>


US crude inventories fell for the fifth consecutive week by 3.4 mb, exceeding the 1.6 mb decline expected by analysts. Gasoline stocks also decreased by 3.7 mb.
As of the week ending 26/Jul, US natural gas inventories were up 8.4% YoY and 15.7% above the 5-year seasonal average.
European oil majors beat Q2 profit estimates. BP’s Q2 underlying net profit beat estimates by 7.7%. Shell’s Q2 EPS beat estimates by 5.1%. 


[ETP 31/2024] Oil Prices Surge on Middle East Tensions; BP and Shell Beat Earnings Expectations

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>This paper contrasts performance of integrated oil exploration and refining firms ("Explorers") with oil refineries ("Refiners").</li>
<li>Hypothesis is that Refiners outperform Explorers when the crack spread widens. Back testing based on select firms proves the hypothesis.</li>
<li>This paper posits that Refiners will outdo Explorers when crack spreads tear based on historical performance.</li>
</ul>


This paper contrasts performance of integrated oil exploration and refining firms ("Explorers") with oil refineries ("Refiners").
Hypothesis is that Refiners outperform Explorers when the crack spread widens. Back testing based on select firms proves the hypothesis.
This paper posits that Refiners will outdo Explorers when crack spreads tear based on historical performance.


Widening Crack Spreads Enable Oil Refiners to Outdo Oil Explorers

<ul>
<li>Large-Cap indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100) remain bullish, finding support at their respective 20-day MAs since November 2023, and we remain bullish</li>
<li>The question is whether that will continue to be the case. Concerns are rising Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar (DXY), which have broken above short-term resistance levels on Feb13</li>
<li>Friday's PPI report should provide more clarity as to how concerned we should be about rising inflation</li>
</ul>


Large-Cap indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100) remain bullish, finding support at their respective 20-day MAs since November 2023, and we remain bullish
The question is whether that will continue to be the case. Concerns are rising Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar (DXY), which have broken above short-term resistance levels on Feb13
Friday's PPI report should provide more clarity as to how concerned we should be about rising inflation


S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing 20-Day MAs; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing Critical 4.35% Resistance

United States

Valero Energy Corporation is an independent petroleum refining and marketing company that owns and operates refineries in the United States, Canada, and Aruba.  The Company produces conventional gasolines, distillates, jet fuel, asphalt, petrochemicals, lubricants, and other refined products as well as diesel fuel, low-sulfur and ultra-low-sulfur diesel fuel, and oxygenates.

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Valero Energy (VLO US)

Significant Downside Risk if 6480 Breaks

Significant Downside Risk if 6480 Breaks on $SPX. 10-Year Treasury yield breakout above 4.30%. MOVE index surges to 11-month highs

Vermilion Research

Local Low in Place; Russell 2000 (IWM) Holds at $245; Semiconductors (SMH) Hold at $375

Local Low in Place $SPX; Russell 2000 $IWM Holds at $245; Semiconductors $SMH Hold at $365-$375; Cannot be too Bearish if these supports hold....

Vermilion Research

[ETP 31/2024] Oil Prices Surge on Middle East Tensions; BP and Shell Beat Earnings Expectations

US crude inventories and gasoline stocks continue to decline, while US natural gas inventories are up YoY. European oil majors surpass Q2 profit...

Mint Finance

Widening Crack Spreads Enable Oil Refiners to Outdo Oil Explorers

Pure play crude oil refining and marketing firms outperformed integrated oil E&P companies during times of widening crack oil spreads.

Mint Finance

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing 20-Day MAs; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing Critical 4.35% Resistance

$SPX and Nasdaq 100 $QQQ testing 20-day MAs (support since November); We remain bullish, but can't rule out a pullback to 4800-4850 on SPX; 10-Yr...

Vermilion Research

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Significant Downside Risk if 6480 Breaks

Significant Downside Risk if 6480 Breaks on $SPX. 10-Year Treasury yield breakout above 4.30%. MOVE index surges to 11-month highs

Vermilion Research

Local Low in Place; Russell 2000 (IWM) Holds at $245; Semiconductors (SMH) Hold at $375

Local Low in Place $SPX; Russell 2000 $IWM Holds at $245; Semiconductors $SMH Hold at $365-$375; Cannot be too Bearish if these supports hold....

Vermilion Research

[ETP 31/2024] Oil Prices Surge on Middle East Tensions; BP and Shell Beat Earnings Expectations

​US crude inventories and gasoline stocks continue to decline, while US natural gas inventories are up YoY. European oil majors surpass Q2 profit...

Mint Finance

Widening Crack Spreads Enable Oil Refiners to Outdo Oil Explorers

Pure play crude oil refining and marketing firms outperformed integrated oil E&P companies during times of widening crack oil spreads.

Mint Finance

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing 20-Day MAs; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing Critical 4.35% Resistance

$SPX and Nasdaq 100 $QQQ testing 20-day MAs (support since November); We remain bullish, but can't rule out a pullback to 4800-4850 on SPX; 10-Yr...

Vermilion Research

US crude inventories and gasoline stocks continue to decline, while US natural gas inventories are up YoY. European oil majors surpass Q2 profit...