Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>October seasonals, despite their reputation, show most markets with better than 60% odds of finishing higher albeit with meager returns. </li>
<li>Volatility trends have diverged, with implied vols climbing even as realized vols fell, raising questions about early signs of risk sensitivity.</li>
<li>Implied vols on most markets have been trending higher vs the SP500 despite the US being ground zero for policy uncertainty.</li>
</ul>


October seasonals, despite their reputation, show most markets with better than 60% odds of finishing higher albeit with meager returns. 
Volatility trends have diverged, with implied vols climbing even as realized vols fell, raising questions about early signs of risk sensitivity.
Implied vols on most markets have been trending higher vs the SP500 despite the US being ground zero for policy uncertainty.


Monthly Macro Markets (October): Diverging Volatility Trends Highlight Risk Sensitivity

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Commodities

<ul>
<li>How have our major investment themes performed so far in 2025?</li>
<li>Review of the performance of the major markets and asset classes we focus on</li>
<li>We revisit our outlook for each of those asset classes for Q4 25</li>
</ul>


How have our major investment themes performed so far in 2025?
Review of the performance of the major markets and asset classes we focus on
We revisit our outlook for each of those asset classes for Q4 25


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 13 adds, 2 deletes and 1 listing change for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-junior-gold-miners-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32845:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US)</a> in September. There are capping and float changes too.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 14.5% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$2.5bn. There are 12 stocks with over 3x ADV to trade from passive trackers.</li>
<li>There are multiple stocks that will have same-way flows from other index trackers at the same time, and the impact will be amplified.</li>
</ul>


There are 13 adds, 2 deletes and 1 listing change for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in September. There are capping and float changes too.
Estimated one-way turnover is 14.5% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$2.5bn. There are 12 stocks with over 3x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
There are multiple stocks that will have same-way flows from other index trackers at the same time, and the impact will be amplified.


MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: 13 Adds, 2 Deletes; US$2.5bn Trade

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Chinese onshore markets now on a roll- will it continue?</li>
<li>The fight over critical materials heats up as the rally broadens out</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Chinese onshore markets now on a roll- will it continue?
The fight over critical materials heats up as the rally broadens out


Overview #33 Ignore the Noise, Follow the Money: China’s Next Leg Higher

<ul>
<li>The prospect of jumbo US rate cuts is juicing asset markets</li>
<li>Overseas Capital is starting to move into domestic Chinese equities</li>
<li>The Precious metals ETFs are breaking out -looking at laggards</li>
</ul>


The prospect of jumbo US rate cuts is juicing asset markets
Overseas Capital is starting to move into domestic Chinese equities
The Precious metals ETFs are breaking out -looking at laggards


Overview #32 – International Money Starts to Flow to Chinese Domestic Markets

United States

VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF is an exchange traded fund incorporated in the USA. The Fund's objective is to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of the MVIS Junior Gold Miners Index. The Fund will normally invest at least 80% of its total assets in securities that comprise the Fund's benchmark index.

VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US)

Monthly Macro Markets (October): Diverging Volatility Trends Highlight Risk Sensitivity

Despite October’s reputation for turmoil, history points to gains, though volatility signals have begun to diverge underscoring possible increasing...

John Ley

Q4 Outlook for Our Investment Themes

A review of the performance of how our major investment themes have performed in 2025 and our outlook for Q4 and beyond.

Rikki Malik

MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: 13 Adds, 2 Deletes; US$2.5bn Trade

There are 13 adds, 2 deletes, float and capping changes for the GDXJ. There are multiple stocks that have passive flows from the Fglobal, ASX and...

Brian Freitas

Overview #33 Ignore the Noise, Follow the Money: China’s Next Leg Higher

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the Chinese breakout and laggards in the material sector

Rikki Malik

Overview #32 – International Money Starts to Flow to Chinese Domestic Markets

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the Chinese breakout and laggards in the precious metal space

Rikki Malik

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Monthly Macro Markets (October): Diverging Volatility Trends Highlight Risk Sensitivity

Despite October’s reputation for turmoil, history points to gains, though volatility signals have begun to diverge underscoring possible increasing...

John Ley

Q4 Outlook for Our Investment Themes

​A review of the performance of how our major investment themes have performed in 2025 and our outlook for Q4 and beyond.

Rikki Malik

MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: 13 Adds, 2 Deletes; US$2.5bn Trade

There are 13 adds, 2 deletes, float and capping changes for the GDXJ. There are multiple stocks that have passive flows from the Fglobal, ASX and...

Brian Freitas

Overview #33 Ignore the Noise, Follow the Money: China’s Next Leg Higher

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the Chinese breakout and laggards in the material sector

Rikki Malik

Overview #32 – International Money Starts to Flow to Chinese Domestic Markets

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the Chinese breakout and laggards in the precious metal space

Rikki Malik

A review of the performance of how our major investment themes have performed in 2025 and our outlook for Q4 and beyond.