Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> invests over 3.7 billion in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vanguard-international-semi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16011:1" rel="noopener">Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)</a> to increase its holdings to 27%.</li>
<li>Taiwanese authorities, specifically the Investment Commission of the Ministry of Economic Affairs, approved Vanguard's investment in its first 12-inch factory in Singapore yesterday.</li>
<li>Regarding the outlook for 4Q24, we believe it is still evolving, and our current estimate is a ~5% quarter-on-quarter decline.</li>
</ul>



Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) invests over 3.7 billion in Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT) to increase its holdings to 27%.
Taiwanese authorities, specifically the Investment Commission of the Ministry of Economic Affairs, approved Vanguard's investment in its first 12-inch factory in Singapore yesterday.
Regarding the outlook for 4Q24, we believe it is still evolving, and our current estimate is a ~5% quarter-on-quarter decline.


Vanguard (5347.TT): TSMC Invests over 3.7 Billion in Vanguard to Increase Its Holdings to 27%.

Novatek Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a> will initially use Novatek's DDIC (Display Driver IC) for the iPhone 16, but it will soon being replaced largely.</li>
<li>In 4Q24, there is a possibility of experiencing a decline, with a potential quarter-over-quarter decrease of approximately 5-10%.</li>
<li>The Chinese panel market continues to be a key battleground, and Novatek must navigate these challenges to remain competitive.</li>
</ul>



Apple (AAPL US) will initially use Novatek's DDIC (Display Driver IC) for the iPhone 16, but it will soon being replaced largely.
In 4Q24, there is a possibility of experiencing a decline, with a potential quarter-over-quarter decrease of approximately 5-10%.
The Chinese panel market continues to be a key battleground, and Novatek must navigate these challenges to remain competitive.


Novatek (3034.TT): To Utilizing on IPhone 16 DDIC Will Soon Be Largely Replaced by Korean Fabless.

<ul>
<li>The 4Q24 is slightly on the downside, and we are currently adopting a somewhat conservative approach.  </li>
<li>Visibility extends for no more than 3 months, and any increase in demand is primarily driven by urgent orders.</li>
<li>As for the upcoming 12" Fab, which is in collaboration with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nxp-semiconductors-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9801:1" rel="noopener">Nxp Semiconductors Nv (NXPI US)</a>, it has commenced local recruitment efforts in Singapore.</li>
</ul>


The 4Q24 is slightly on the downside, and we are currently adopting a somewhat conservative approach.  
Visibility extends for no more than 3 months, and any increase in demand is primarily driven by urgent orders.
As for the upcoming 12" Fab, which is in collaboration with Nxp Semiconductors Nv (NXPI US), it has commenced local recruitment efforts in Singapore.


Vanguard (5347.TT): The Outlook of 4Q24 Seems a Bit Softer.

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) / Equity Bottom-Up

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC)

<ul>
<li>Expected sequential revenue growth of 13% to 15%, gross margin expected between 18% and 20%.</li>
<li>The company has not increased capacity utilization through price cuts but supports customers in facing competition to maintain market share.</li>
<li>Inventory replenishment behavior will end in the third quarter, and fourth-quarter orders will more accurately reflect actual demand rather than the impact of restocking.</li>
</ul>


Expected sequential revenue growth of 13% to 15%, gross margin expected between 18% and 20%.
The company has not increased capacity utilization through price cuts but supports customers in facing competition to maintain market share.
Inventory replenishment behavior will end in the third quarter, and fourth-quarter orders will more accurately reflect actual demand rather than the impact of restocking.


SMIC (981.HK): Revenue and GM Continued to Trend Up in 3Q24

United Microelectron Sp Adr / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>3Q24 guidance: Shipment up mid-single digits QoQ; ASP: Remains firm in USD; GM: around mid-30%. (Consensuses were high single digits.)</li>
<li>Has provided a 22nm HV solution for high-end OLED DDI to high-end SP, and expects to reach high-volume production in 2025.  </li>
<li>Cooperation with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a> is progressing well, targeting MP for 14nm in 2027.</li>
</ul>


3Q24 guidance: Shipment up mid-single digits QoQ; ASP: Remains firm in USD; GM: around mid-30%. (Consensuses were high single digits.)
Has provided a 22nm HV solution for high-end OLED DDI to high-end SP, and expects to reach high-volume production in 2025.  
Cooperation with Intel Corp (INTC US) is progressing well, targeting MP for 14nm in 2027.


UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 3Q24 Sales Were Slightly Below Consensuses

Taiwan

Vanguard International Semiconductor Corporation offers integrated circuit foundry services.  The Company manufactures 0.18um logic, mixed-signal, analog, high voltage, low power, CMOS RF, flash, embedded memory, and bipolar CMOS DMOS semiconductors.

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Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)

Vanguard (5347.TT): TSMC Invests over 3.7 Billion in Vanguard to Increase Its Holdings to 27%.

TSMC boosts investment in Vanguard to 27%, Taiwanese authorities approve Vanguard's investment in Singapore factory, 4Q24 outlook shows potential...

Patrick Liao

Novatek (3034.TT): To Utilizing on IPhone 16 DDIC Will Soon Be Largely Replaced by Korean Fabless.

In 4Q24, Novatek faces potential decline in Chinese panel market, with a potential QoQ decrease of approximately 5-10%, and the demand may start...

Patrick Liao

Vanguard (5347.TT): The Outlook of 4Q24 Seems a Bit Softer.

Due to slightly downside 4Q24, with visibility limited to 3 months and demand driven by urgent orders. Recruitment for upcoming 12" Fab in...

Patrick Liao

SMIC (981.HK): Revenue and GM Continued to Trend Up in 3Q24

Company expects solid revenue growth and stable gross margins, focusing on supporting customers and anticipating more accurate demand in upcoming...

Patrick Liao

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 3Q24 Sales Were Slightly Below Consensuses

Overall, sales are lower than consensuses in 3Q24. UMC plans to reach high-volume production for 22nm HV solution by 2025 and is progressing well...

Patrick Liao

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Vanguard (5347.TT): TSMC Invests over 3.7 Billion in Vanguard to Increase Its Holdings to 27%.

TSMC boosts investment in Vanguard to 27%, Taiwanese authorities approve Vanguard's investment in Singapore factory, 4Q24 outlook shows potential...

Patrick Liao

Novatek (3034.TT): To Utilizing on IPhone 16 DDIC Will Soon Be Largely Replaced by Korean Fabless.

​In 4Q24, Novatek faces potential decline in Chinese panel market, with a potential QoQ decrease of approximately 5-10%, and the demand may start...

Patrick Liao

Vanguard (5347.TT): The Outlook of 4Q24 Seems a Bit Softer.

Due to slightly downside 4Q24, with visibility limited to 3 months and demand driven by urgent orders. Recruitment for upcoming 12" Fab in...

Patrick Liao

SMIC (981.HK): Revenue and GM Continued to Trend Up in 3Q24

​Company expects solid revenue growth and stable gross margins, focusing on supporting customers and anticipating more accurate demand in upcoming...

Patrick Liao

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 3Q24 Sales Were Slightly Below Consensuses

Overall, sales are lower than consensuses in 3Q24. UMC plans to reach high-volume production for 22nm HV solution by 2025 and is progressing well...

Patrick Liao

In 4Q24, Novatek faces potential decline in Chinese panel market, with a potential QoQ decrease of approximately 5-10%, and the demand may start...

Company expects solid revenue growth and stable gross margins, focusing on supporting customers and anticipating more accurate demand in upcoming...