Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our February 6, 2023 EM Strategy, we discussed that we were buyers of the MSCI EM (EEM-US) on a pullback to the 50-day MA. </li>
<li>The pullback went a bit deeper but managed to hold at our $37.50 line-in-the-sand which we discussed in our recent ETF Pathfinder reports (Mar. 6 and Mar. 20, 2023).</li>
<li>The EEM-US displays a bullish 2-month downtrend reversal- add exposure. Signs continue to point to a topping DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. EAFE).</li>
</ul>


In our February 6, 2023 EM Strategy, we discussed that we were buyers of the MSCI EM (EEM-US) on a pullback to the 50-day MA. 
The pullback went a bit deeper but managed to hold at our $37.50 line-in-the-sand which we discussed in our recent ETF Pathfinder reports (Mar. 6 and Mar. 20, 2023).
The EEM-US displays a bullish 2-month downtrend reversal- add exposure. Signs continue to point to a topping DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. EAFE).


MSCI EM $EEM 2-Month Downtrend Reversal at Support -- Add Exposure. Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>On 17 February, NSE Indices announced the results of the March index review for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX)</a>. There are 5 adds and 5 deletes. </li>
<li>Last evening, NSE Indices announced a change in the index methodology where the cumulative weight of non-F&amp;O stocks in the index will be capped at 10% (down from 15% earlier).</li>
<li>This changes the flows at the March rebalance that will be implemented at the close of trading on 29 March.</li>
</ul>


On 17 February, NSE Indices announced the results of the March index review for the Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX). There are 5 adds and 5 deletes. 
Last evening, NSE Indices announced a change in the index methodology where the cumulative weight of non-F&amp;O stocks in the index will be capped at 10% (down from 15% earlier).
This changes the flows at the March rebalance that will be implemented at the close of trading on 29 March.


NIFTY NEXT50 /​ NIFTY100 Index Rebalance: Flows Change as Index Capping Methodology Changes

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We are glad to announce that we released a new report – Top Dividend Yield Stocks during the month.</li><li>This monthly report contains the top 15 dividend-yield companies from PSUs, Large Cap, Mid Cap, and Small Cap space each.</li><li>Axis Top Picks: Our Axis Top Picks basket reported an impressive performance with a return of 149 % since its inception, notably beating the 87% returns reported by the benchmark NIFTY 50 Index over the same period.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We are glad to announce that we released a new report – Top Dividend Yield Stocks during the month.This monthly report contains the top 15 dividend-yield companies from PSUs, Large Cap, Mid Cap, and Small Cap space each.Axis Top Picks: Our Axis Top Picks basket reported an impressive performance with a return of 149 % since its inception, notably beating the 87% returns reported by the benchmark NIFTY 50 Index over the same period.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>Axis Top picks basket delivered a positive return of 0.7%, outperforming the Nifty 50 index which declined by 1.7% over the same period (since 1st Feb’23).</li><li>This outperformance was indeed commendable, especially considering the highly volatile month of Feb’23 which witnessed a rather mixed performance across the sectoral, market cap, and style indices.</li><li>Furthermore, our Top Picks basket has delivered an impressive return of 149% since its inception in May’20, which stands significantly higher than the 87% returns reported by Nifty 50 over the same period.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Axis Top picks basket delivered a positive return of 0.7%, outperforming the Nifty 50 index which declined by 1.7% over the same period (since 1st Feb’23).This outperformance was indeed commendable, especially considering the highly volatile month of Feb’23 which witnessed a rather mixed performance across the sectoral, market cap, and style indices.Furthermore, our Top Picks basket has delivered an impressive return of 149% since its inception in May’20, which stands significantly higher than the 87% returns reported by Nifty 50 over the same period.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Forensic Analyst, Trudence Capital Advisors

Nitin Mangal

Forensic Analyst

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Forensic Accounting

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/varun-beverages-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23653:1" rel="noopener">Varun Beverages Ltd (VBL IN)</a> is engaged in manufacturing, selling, bottling and distribution of beverages of Pepsi brand.</li>
<li>It operates mostly in India but also looks after, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Zambia, Morocco and Zimbabwe, as per franchisee agreement with PepsiCo India.</li>
<li>Key forensic concerns include unusual accounting with respect to containers, trend in discounting, advances to a related entity, etc and some governance alarms. </li>
</ul>



Varun Beverages Ltd (VBL IN) is engaged in manufacturing, selling, bottling and distribution of beverages of Pepsi brand.
It operates mostly in India but also looks after, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Zambia, Morocco and Zimbabwe, as per franchisee agreement with PepsiCo India.
Key forensic concerns include unusual accounting with respect to containers, trend in discounting, advances to a related entity, etc and some governance alarms. 


India

Varun Beverages Limited produces and distributes beverages. The Company offers carbonated soft drinks and non-alcoholic beverages, as well as provides packaged drinking water. Varun Beverages serves customers worldwide.

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Varun Beverages (VBL IN)

MSCI EM $EEM 2-Month Downtrend Reversal at Support -- Add Exposure. Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight

Signs continue to point to a topping $DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. $EAFE). Many ideas in China/Hong...

Vermilion Research

NIFTY NEXT50 / NIFTY100 Index Rebalance: Flows Change as Index Capping Methodology Changes

NSE Indices announced a change in the index methodology where the cumulative weight of non-F&O stocks in the index will be capped at 10% (down from...

Brian Freitas

Axis Research Scorecard Report - Feb 23

We are glad to announce that we released a new report – Top Dividend Yield Stocks during the month. This monthly report contains the top 15...

Axis Direct

Axis Top Picks - March 2023

Axis Top picks basket delivered a positive return of 0.7%, outperforming the Nifty 50 index which declined by 1.7% over the same period (since 1st...

Axis Direct

Varun Beverages Ltd- Forensic Analysis

Key forensic concerns include unusual accounting with respect to containers, trend in discounting, advances to a related entity, etc and some...

Nitin Mangal

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MSCI EM $EEM 2-Month Downtrend Reversal at Support -- Add Exposure. Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight

Signs continue to point to a topping $DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. $EAFE). Many ideas in China/Hong...

Vermilion Research

NIFTY NEXT50 /​ NIFTY100 Index Rebalance: Flows Change as Index Capping Methodology Changes

NSE Indices announced a change in the index methodology where the cumulative weight of non-F&O stocks in the index will be capped at 10% (down from...

Brian Freitas

Axis Research Scorecard Report - Feb 23

We are glad to announce that we released a new report – Top Dividend Yield Stocks during the month. This monthly report contains the top 15...

Axis Direct

Axis Top Picks - March 2023

Axis Top picks basket delivered a positive return of 0.7%, outperforming the Nifty 50 index which declined by 1.7% over the same period (since 1st...

Axis Direct

Varun Beverages Ltd- Forensic Analysis

Key forensic concerns include unusual accounting with respect to containers, trend in discounting, advances to a related entity, etc and some...

Nitin Mangal

NIFTY NEXT50 / NIFTY100 Index Rebalance: Flows Change as Index Capping Methodology Changes