Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The MV Global Gold Miners index represents the performance of high and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.</li>
<li>There will be four ADDs for the March 2026 rebal event. We predicted two correctly and the other two were surprises.</li>
<li>We expect a one-way flow of US$2.7bn and a turnover of ~7.2% for March 2026. Most of this is recapping flows of the large caps.</li>
</ul>


The MV Global Gold Miners index represents the performance of high and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
There will be four ADDs for the March 2026 rebal event. We predicted two correctly and the other two were surprises.
We expect a one-way flow of US$2.7bn and a turnover of ~7.2% for March 2026. Most of this is recapping flows of the large caps.


[Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Mar26 Rebal Results: Four ADDs; US$2.7bn One-Way

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> will use the close from 11 March to cap the stocks. The constituent changes will be based off the close on 27 February.</li>
<li>If there are 6 inclusions to the index, the estimated one-way turnover is 7.8% and the round-trip trade is US$5.7bn.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/regis-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20106:1" rel="noopener">Regis Resources</a> and Greatland Resources are adds to the ASX100 Index and there will be increased flow and impact if they are added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF</a>.</li>
</ul>


The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) will use the close from 11 March to cap the stocks. The constituent changes will be based off the close on 27 February.
If there are 6 inclusions to the index, the estimated one-way turnover is 7.8% and the round-trip trade is US$5.7bn.

Regis Resources and Greatland Resources are adds to the ASX100 Index and there will be increased flow and impact if they are added to the VanEck Gold Miners ETF.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) March Rebalance Preview: Capping Finalised; Announcement on Friday

<ul>
<li>There could be up to 6 inclusions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> in March. There are some big capping changes too.</li>
<li>With float estimated at less than 10%, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a>'s wait for index inclusion continues. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-fields-ltd-434088e3-4626-4b0b-a6ec-acfc202c86d8" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28563:1" rel="noopener">Gold Fields (GFI US)</a> currently moves from Large Weight to Small Weight.</li>
<li>The capping changes and the 6 adds will lead to an estimated one-way turnover of 8.5% and a round-trip trade of US$6.7bn.</li>
</ul>


There could be up to 6 inclusions for the VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) in March. There are some big capping changes too.
With float estimated at less than 10%, Zijin Gold (2259 HK)'s wait for index inclusion continues. Gold Fields (GFI US) currently moves from Large Weight to Small Weight.
The capping changes and the 6 adds will lead to an estimated one-way turnover of 8.5% and a round-trip trade of US$6.7bn.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) March Rebalance Preview: 6 Adds & US$6.7bn Trade

<ul>
<li>There could be 1 change for the ASX20, 2 for the ASX50, 3 for the ASX100, 4 for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200</a> and 17 adds/10 deletes for the ASX300 in March.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>While the forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last few months, there was a drawdown for most indices in January. Most of that underperformance has now reversed.</li>
</ul>


There could be 1 change for the ASX20, 2 for the ASX50, 3 for the ASX100, 4 for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 and 17 adds/10 deletes for the ASX300 in March.
Passive trackers will need to trade a lot of stock in the forecast changes, with the impact being especially large for the changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX). 
While the forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last few months, there was a drawdown for most indices in January. Most of that underperformance has now reversed.


S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 26): Plenty of Change with Big Flow & Impact

<ul>
<li>There could be 3 inclusions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> in March. There is 1 stock that is close on free float market cap.</li>
<li>If <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-fields-ltd-434088e3-4626-4b0b-a6ec-acfc202c86d8" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28563:1" rel="noopener">Gold Fields (GFI US)</a> outperforms the other stocks in the index and is classified as a Large Weight, flows will drop off significantly.</li>
<li>The capping changes and the 3 adds will lead to an estimated one-way turnover of 6.6% and a round-trip trade of US$4.68bn.</li>
</ul>


There could be 3 inclusions for the VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) in March. There is 1 stock that is close on free float market cap.
If Gold Fields (GFI US) outperforms the other stocks in the index and is classified as a Large Weight, flows will drop off significantly.
The capping changes and the 3 adds will lead to an estimated one-way turnover of 6.6% and a round-trip trade of US$4.68bn.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) March Rebalance: 3 Adds and US$4.7bn Trade for Now

Australia

Vault Minerals Limited is an Australian gold producer and explorer. The Company operates the Darlot and King of the Hills gold mines in Western Australia's Eastern Goldfields, and holds a large exploration footprint in the district. Vault Minerals also holds an interest in the Siana and Mapawa gold projects in the Philippines.

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Vault Minerals Ltd (VAU AU)

[Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Mar26 Rebal Results: Four ADDs; US$2.7bn One-Way

The MV Global Gold Miners Index saw 4 ADDs and sees US$2.7bn one-way of flows or about 7.2% turnover. That is as expected, but 2 of the 4 ADDs were...

Travis Lundy

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) March Rebalance Preview: Capping Finalised; Announcement on Friday

There could be 6 adds resulting in an estimated one-way turnover of 7.8% and a round-trip trade of US$5.7bn. There will be capping inflows to the...

Brian Freitas

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) March Rebalance Preview: 6 Adds & US$6.7bn Trade

There could be 6 adds and big capping changes for the GDX in March. Estimated one-way turnover is 8.5% and round-trip trade is US$6.7bn. Some of...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 26): Plenty of Change with Big Flow & Impact

There could be 46 changes across the ASX family of indices in March. Passive trackers need to trade a lot of stock in many names. Some names are...

Brian Freitas

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) March Rebalance: 3 Adds and US$4.7bn Trade for Now

There could be 3 adds for the index in March. Coincidentally, all 3 are potential ASX100 adds. Gold Fields is one to watch out for since...

Brian Freitas

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[Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Mar26 Rebal Results: Four ADDs; US$2.7bn One-Way

The MV Global Gold Miners Index saw 4 ADDs and sees US$2.7bn one-way of flows or about 7.2% turnover. That is as expected, but 2 of the 4 ADDs were...

Travis Lundy

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) March Rebalance Preview: Capping Finalised; Announcement on Friday

There could be 6 adds resulting in an estimated one-way turnover of 7.8% and a round-trip trade of US$5.7bn. There will be capping inflows to the...

Brian Freitas

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) March Rebalance Preview: 6 Adds & US$6.7bn Trade

There could be 6 adds and big capping changes for the GDX in March. Estimated one-way turnover is 8.5% and round-trip trade is US$6.7bn. Some of...

Brian Freitas

S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 26): Plenty of Change with Big Flow & Impact

There could be 46 changes across the ASX family of indices in March. Passive trackers need to trade a lot of stock in many names. Some names are...

Brian Freitas

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) March Rebalance: 3 Adds and US$4.7bn Trade for Now

There could be 3 adds for the index in March. Coincidentally, all 3 are potential ASX100 adds. Gold Fields is one to watch out for since...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 26): Plenty of Change with Big Flow & Impact