IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/magnetic-resources-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17051:1" rel="noopener">Magnetic Resources Nl (MAU AU)</a> has entered into a SID with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genesis-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4650:1" rel="noopener">Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)</a> at A$1.40 cash + 0.0873 GMD shares per MAU share, 25.0% premium to the last close.</li>
<li>While the offer represents an all-time high, it is light compared to peer EV/Resource and EV/Reserve multiples. The ability to choose between all-cash and all-scrip partly addresses this. </li>
<li>The key conditions are the Magnetic shareholder and ACCC approval. Due to the significant irrevocables, the scheme vote is low risk.</li>
</ul>



Magnetic Resources Nl (MAU AU) has entered into a SID with Genesis Minerals (GMD AU) at A$1.40 cash + 0.0873 GMD shares per MAU share, 25.0% premium to the last close.
While the offer represents an all-time high, it is light compared to peer EV/Resource and EV/Reserve multiples. The ability to choose between all-cash and all-scrip partly addresses this. 
The key conditions are the Magnetic shareholder and ACCC approval. Due to the significant irrevocables, the scheme vote is low risk.


Magnetic Resources (MAU AU): Genesis (GMD US)’s Binding Proposal

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be 2 inclusions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> in March. There are 2 more stocks that are close on free float market cap.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a>'s float is still below 10% and the stock will need to wait till the June rebalance to be added to the index. </li>
<li>The capping changes and the 2 adds will lead to an estimated one-way turnover of 6.8% and a round-trip trade of US$4.93bn.</li>
</ul>


There could be 2 inclusions for the VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) in March. There are 2 more stocks that are close on free float market cap.

Zijin Gold (2259 HK)'s float is still below 10% and the stock will need to wait till the June rebalance to be added to the index. 
The capping changes and the 2 adds will lead to an estimated one-way turnover of 6.8% and a round-trip trade of US$4.93bn.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) March Rebalance: 2 Adds Likely; US$5bn Trade

Australia

Vault Minerals Limited is an Australian gold producer and explorer. The Company operates the Darlot and King of the Hills gold mines in Western Australia's Eastern Goldfields, and holds a large exploration footprint in the district. Vault Minerals also holds an interest in the Siana and Mapawa gold projects in the Philippines.

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Vault Minerals Ltd (VAU AU)

Magnetic Resources (MAU AU): Genesis (GMD US)’s Binding Proposal

While the offer represents an all-time high, it is light compared to peer EV/Resource and EV/Reserve multiples. Due to the significant...

Arun George

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) March Rebalance: 2 Adds Likely; US$5bn Trade

There could be 2 adds in March with another 2 stocks in close range. Capping and constituent changes are estimated to result in turnover of 6.8%...

Brian Freitas

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