Financial News, Analysis and Data, FNArena

FNArena

Financial News, Analysis and Data

Online financial media company focused on Australian equities, with a global perspective

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Mader Group&rsquo;s casual workforce model, diversification into segments beyond mining maintenance, and strong earnings growth rate, have Macquarie initiating with Outperform.</li><li> -Mader Group is Australia&rsquo;s largest provider of heavy equipment maintenance -Yet underpenetrated in Australia&rsquo;s mining industry -Attractive model for employees, solid growth trajectory -Macquarie initiates with Outperform</li></ul>

Mader Group&rsquo;s casual workforce model, diversification into segments beyond mining maintenance, and strong earnings growth rate, have Macquarie initiating with Outperform. -Mader Group is Australia&rsquo;s largest provider of heavy equipment maintenance -Yet underpenetrated in Australia&rsquo;s mining industry -Attractive model for employees, solid growth trajectory -Macquarie initiates with Outperform

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/johns-lyng-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26649:1" rel="noopener">Johns Lyng (JLG AU)</a> IE considers PEP’s A$4.00 offer fair and reasonable as it is within its A$3.72-4.42 valuation range.</li>
<li>The offer requires regulatory (FIRB and US) and shareholder approvals. The scheme vote should pass as no disinterested shareholder comes close to holding a blocking stake.  </li>
<li>The offer is reasonable as the timing of an earnings recovery is highly uncertain. At the last close and for a 23 October payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.5%/11.0%. </li>
</ul>


The Johns Lyng (JLG AU) IE considers PEP’s A$4.00 offer fair and reasonable as it is within its A$3.72-4.42 valuation range.
The offer requires regulatory (FIRB and US) and shareholder approvals. The scheme vote should pass as no disinterested shareholder comes close to holding a blocking stake.  
The offer is reasonable as the timing of an earnings recovery is highly uncertain. At the last close and for a 23 October payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.5%/11.0%. 


Johns Lyng (JLG AU): Scheme Vote on 8 October

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>A new selection methodology will be used for the ASX index family starting from the September 2025 index review. We first wrote about this a couple of months ago (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-leaderboard-asx-sep25-update-with-new-important-market-consultation-implications" target="_blank" rel="noopener">link</a>).</li>
<li>In this insight, we present our final expectations for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 for the September 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect one change for ASX 50, three changes for ASX 100, and six changes for ASX 200. Separately, we see 14 ADDs and 11 DELs for ASX 300.</li>
</ul>


A new selection methodology will be used for the ASX index family starting from the September 2025 index review. We first wrote about this a couple of months ago (link).
In this insight, we present our final expectations for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 for the September 2025 index rebal event.
We expect one change for ASX 50, three changes for ASX 100, and six changes for ASX 200. Separately, we see 14 ADDs and 11 DELs for ASX 300.


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep25: Methodology Change Confirmed; Good Performance; Final Expectations

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>S&amp;P DJI have proposed methodology changes to the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices to enhance representativeness and more quickly reflect changing market conditions. The consultation conclusions could be announced next week.</li>
<li>The updated methodology could lead to 51 changes across the family of indices with implementation on 19 September. There will be a large impact on a number of stocks.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last several months and near-term performance has been spectacular for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> and S&amp;P/ASX 300 Index changes.</li>
</ul>


S&amp;P DJI have proposed methodology changes to the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices to enhance representativeness and more quickly reflect changing market conditions. The consultation conclusions could be announced next week.
The updated methodology could lead to 51 changes across the family of indices with implementation on 19 September. There will be a large impact on a number of stocks.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last several months and near-term performance has been spectacular for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and S&amp;P/ASX 300 Index changes.


S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 25): Potential Changes if Methodology Is Updated

<ul>
<li>S&amp;P DJI have proposed methodology changes to the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices to enhance representativeness and more quickly reflecting changing market conditions.</li>
<li>The main changes are lowering the minimum float threshold, shortening the market cap calculation period and the liquidity calculation period, and including buffers for additions and deletions.</li>
<li>We currently forecast 47 changes to the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices in September and the short market cap computation period could lead to more change over the next two months.</li>
</ul>


S&amp;P DJI have proposed methodology changes to the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices to enhance representativeness and more quickly reflecting changing market conditions.
The main changes are lowering the minimum float threshold, shortening the market cap calculation period and the liquidity calculation period, and including buffers for additions and deletions.
We currently forecast 47 changes to the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices in September and the short market cap computation period could lead to more change over the next two months.


S&P/ASX Indices: Proposed Methodology Changes & The BIG September Rebalance

Australia

Ventia Services Group Pty Limited provides infrastructure services. The Company offers asset management, capital works, operations and maintenance, network design, architecture, facility management, and environmental services. Ventia Services Group serves customers in Australia and New Zealand.

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Ventia (VNT AU)

Mader Group's Competitive Advantages

Mader Group’s casual workforce model, diversification into segments beyond mining maintenance, and strong earnings growth rate, have Macquarie...

FNArena

Johns Lyng (JLG AU): Scheme Vote on 8 October

The offer is reasonable, and the scheme vote should pass. At the last close and for a 23 October payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.5%/11.0%.

Arun George

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep25: Methodology Change Confirmed; Good Performance; Final Expectations

We have revised our final expectations for the September 2025 index review due to the deletion of Adriatic Metals which was one of our expected...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 25): Potential Changes if Methodology Is Updated

The review period for the September rebalance is done and the proposals in the market consultation will be implemented. That means a lot of change...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Indices: Proposed Methodology Changes & The BIG September Rebalance

The market consultation ends in 2 weeks, and the conclusions should be announced soon after that. A lot of the stocks have moved significantly over...

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

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Mader Group's Competitive Advantages

Mader Group’s casual workforce model, diversification into segments beyond mining maintenance, and strong earnings growth rate, have Macquarie...

FNArena

Johns Lyng (JLG AU): Scheme Vote on 8 October

The offer is reasonable, and the scheme vote should pass. At the last close and for a 23 October payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.5%/11.0%.

Arun George

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep25: Methodology Change Confirmed; Good Performance; Final Expectations

We have revised our final expectations for the September 2025 index review due to the deletion of Adriatic Metals which was one of our expected...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 25): Potential Changes if Methodology Is Updated

The review period for the September rebalance is done and the proposals in the market consultation will be implemented. That means a lot of change...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Indices: Proposed Methodology Changes & The BIG September Rebalance

The market consultation ends in 2 weeks, and the conclusions should be announced soon after that. A lot of the stocks have moved significantly over...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 25): Potential Changes if Methodology Is Updated