Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For the month of May, 8 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$15bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in May was 32%.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of May, 8 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$15bn.
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in May was 32%.
This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, May 2023:  Allkem / Livent, InvoCare, Golden Eagle, Yita Coal, Shinsei Bank

<ul>
<li>Expect some upset on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a>'s Offer, the possibility of some activism, but it all plays out in the back end. Not the front end.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a> is doing a large equity offering to get the monkey off its back with regard to over-leverage, near-term debt refinancing, and WC for Rakuten Mobile.</li>
<li>Fund manager <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-everbright-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:167:1" rel="noopener">China Everbright (165 HK)</a>'s implied stub and simple ratio (CEL / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/everbright-securitie-co-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15343:1" rel="noopener">Everbright Securities Co (A) (601788 CH)</a>) are at multi-year lows.</li>
</ul>


Expect some upset on SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)'s Offer, the possibility of some activism, but it all plays out in the back end. Not the front end.

Rakuten (4755 JP) is doing a large equity offering to get the monkey off its back with regard to over-leverage, near-term debt refinancing, and WC for Rakuten Mobile.
Fund manager China Everbright (165 HK)'s implied stub and simple ratio (CEL / Everbright Securities Co (A) (601788 CH)) are at multi-year lows.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Shinsei Bank, China Everbright, Rakuten, Sony Corp

<ul>
<li>There are 40 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Two new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this past week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a> Tender Offer and TPG's revised Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invocare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9044:1" rel="noopener">Invocare Ltd (IVC AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/penguin-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10190:1" rel="noopener">Penguin International (PBS SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-fiber-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20826:1" rel="noopener">Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sing-tao-news-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15701:1" rel="noopener">Sing Tao News Corp (1105 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 40 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Two new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this past week: SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) Tender Offer and TPG's revised Offer for Invocare Ltd (IVC AU).
Key updates took place for Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)/Newmont Mining (NEM US), Penguin International (PBS SP), Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP), and Sing Tao News Corp (1105 HK).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: InvoCare, Newcrest/Newmont, Penguin Int'l, Golden Energy

<ul>
<li>It is relatively low-hanging fruit to "further propel the renmimbi's internationalisation" and for HKEX, it will "cement HK's position as the premier offshore renmimbi financing center."</li>
<li>The Conundrum: the more active investors decide they like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>, the more there is to sell. That creates interesting opportunities.</li>
<li>Short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yuexiu-property-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18097:1" rel="noopener">Yuexiu Property (123 HK)</a> now, or soon. The dynamics of this is that there WILL be selling when the rights come out. </li>
</ul>


It is relatively low-hanging fruit to "further propel the renmimbi's internationalisation" and for HKEX, it will "cement HK's position as the premier offshore renmimbi financing center."
The Conundrum: the more active investors decide they like Fast Retailing (9983 JP), the more there is to sell. That creates interesting opportunities.
Short Yuexiu Property (123 HK) now, or soon. The dynamics of this is that there WILL be selling when the rights come out. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: China Mobile, Fast Retailing, Yuexiu Property, Vinda, Tokyo Gas

<ul>
<li>Tissue-Maker <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinda-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:475:1" rel="noopener">Vinda International (3331 HK)</a> closed down 6.4% yesterday, recovering from a 13.8% fall intra day.</li>
<li>Vinda said its 1Q23 operating profit declined 85.4% to HK$65mn. Vinda also announced its controlling shareholder <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/essity-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28203:1" rel="noopener">Essity (ESSITYB SS)</a> will commence a strategic review of its 51.59% ownership.</li>
<li>A long-term shareholder potentially seeking a possible divestment, shortly after a company announces poor results, is not a great look.</li>
</ul>


Tissue-Maker Vinda International (3331 HK) closed down 6.4% yesterday, recovering from a 13.8% fall intra day.
Vinda said its 1Q23 operating profit declined 85.4% to HK$65mn. Vinda also announced its controlling shareholder Essity (ESSITYB SS) will commence a strategic review of its 51.59% ownership.
A long-term shareholder potentially seeking a possible divestment, shortly after a company announces poor results, is not a great look.


Hong Kong

Vinda International Holdings Limited manufactures tissue paper products in China.

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Vinda International (3331 HK)

(Mostly) Asia M&A, May 2023: Allkem / Livent, InvoCare, Golden Eagle, Yita Coal, Shinsei Bank

For the month of May, 8 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$15bn. The average premium for the new...

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Last Week in Event SPACE: Shinsei Bank, China Everbright, Rakuten, Sony Corp

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(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: InvoCare, Newcrest/Newmont, Penguin Int'l, Golden Energy

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

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Last Week in Event SPACE: China Mobile, Fast Retailing, Yuexiu Property, Vinda, Tokyo Gas

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

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Essity Mulls Holding In Vinda (3331 HK)

A long-term shareholder potentially looking to divest its stake, shortly after a company announces poor results, is not a great look. Pricing for...

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