European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/multichoice-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28016:1" rel="noopener">MultiChoice Group (MCG SJ)</a> and Canal+ announced a cooperation agreement (with exclusivity period) regarding Canal+’s mandatory offer at ZAR 125/share (c. $1.9 billion), 67% premium, 6.7x EV/25e EBITDA.</li>
<li>On both multiples and DCF, the offer seems fair. My fair value estimate (DCF-based) is ZAR 122.68/share (WACC 16.5%, 2.4% implied perpetuity growth rate).</li>
<li>Considering the 133% share decline from March-November 2023, shareholders must be relieved by the offer and will surely tender. My TP is ZAR 125. Gross spread is 5.7%. Buy.</li>
</ul>



MultiChoice Group (MCG SJ) and Canal+ announced a cooperation agreement (with exclusivity period) regarding Canal+’s mandatory offer at ZAR 125/share (c. $1.9 billion), 67% premium, 6.7x EV/25e EBITDA.
On both multiples and DCF, the offer seems fair. My fair value estimate (DCF-based) is ZAR 122.68/share (WACC 16.5%, 2.4% implied perpetuity growth rate).
Considering the 133% share decline from March-November 2023, shareholders must be relieved by the offer and will surely tender. My TP is ZAR 125. Gross spread is 5.7%. Buy.


<ul>
<li>Since mid-February, spreads have not followed a clear pattern across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have tightened, 9 widened, 1 remained at same level).</li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Danieli, Grifols, Media-for-Europe, Sixt.</li>
<li>Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal, Roche.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-February, spreads have not followed a clear pattern across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have tightened, 9 widened, 1 remained at same level).
Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Danieli, Grifols, Media-for-Europe, Sixt.
Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal, Roche.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: March‘24 Report

<ul>
<li>Since mid-January, spreads have tightened, same as in December, across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (13 have tightened, 6 widened).</li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Danieli, Grifols, Media-for-Europe, Sixt, Volkswagen.</li>
<li>Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal, Roche.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-January, spreads have tightened, same as in December, across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (13 have tightened, 6 widened).
Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Danieli, Grifols, Media-for-Europe, Sixt, Volkswagen.
Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal, Roche.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: February‘24 Report

<ul>
<li>Since mid-December, spreads have generally tightened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (10 have tightened, 7 widened, 2 at same level).</li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Danieli, Grifols (the most interesting situation in this report), Media-for-Europe, Sixt, Volkswagen.</li>
<li>Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-December, spreads have generally tightened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (10 have tightened, 7 widened, 2 at same level).
Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Danieli, Grifols (the most interesting situation in this report), Media-for-Europe, Sixt, Volkswagen.
Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: January‘24 Report

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Reportedly, Chinese investors, as well as Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds, have expressed interest in acquiring a "significant " minority stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pccw-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:873:1" rel="noopener">PCCW Ltd (8 HK)</a>'s fibre ops. </li>
<li>Preceding my comments on PCCW are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


Reportedly, Chinese investors, as well as Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds, have expressed interest in acquiring a "significant " minority stake in PCCW Ltd (8 HK)'s fibre ops. 
Preceding my comments on PCCW are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Rumoured Interest In PCCW's Fibre

France

Vivendi SE provides culture, entertainment, media, and communication services. The Company specializes in audiovisual and cinema, communications, magazines, gaming, live performance, and distribution platform activities. Vivendi serves customers worldwide.

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Vivendi SE (VIV FP)

Canal+/Multichoice Group: Agreed Offer

MultiChoice and Canal+ have reached a cooperation agreement with an offer of ZAR 125/share, which seems fair. Shareholders are likely to accept...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: March‘24 Report

Since mid-February, spreads have not followed a clear pattern across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: February‘24 Report

Since mid-January, spreads have tightened, same as in December, across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (13 have...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: January‘24 Report

Since mid-December, spreads have generally tightened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares. The spread of Grifols...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

StubWorld: Rumoured Interest In PCCW's Fibre

A 7% premium is unsustainable for this holding company structure. Reverse the stub here. If Hong Kong fibre is in vogue. perhaps it might be...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Canal+/Multichoice Group: Agreed Offer

​MultiChoice and Canal+ have reached a cooperation agreement with an offer of ZAR 125/share, which seems fair. Shareholders are likely to accept...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: March‘24 Report

Since mid-February, spreads have not followed a clear pattern across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: February‘24 Report

Since mid-January, spreads have tightened, same as in December, across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (13 have...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: January‘24 Report

Since mid-December, spreads have generally tightened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares. The spread of Grifols...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

StubWorld: Rumoured Interest In PCCW's Fibre

A 7% premium is unsustainable for this holding company structure. Reverse the stub here. If Hong Kong fibre is in vogue. perhaps it might be...

David Blennerhassett

MultiChoice and Canal+ have reached a cooperation agreement with an offer of ZAR 125/share, which seems fair. Shareholders are likely to accept...